Price Stability and the Growth Maximizing Rate of Inflation for Ghana
Peter Quartey
.
DOI: 10.4236/me.2010.13021   PDF    HTML     10,018 Downloads   17,036 Views   Citations

Abstract

Monetary policy in Ghana, which is typical of many central banks, over the years, has focused on ensuring price stability or low inflation. The aim of the policy of price stability is to provide a stable environment for real sector activities to flourish. However, the outcome of the policy on real sector activities has not been subjected to any empirical investigation and this forms the focus of the study. For instance, the Central Bank has focused on single digit inflation and whether such a low rate is growth maximizing is yet to be ascertained. The study therefore investigates the revenue maximizing and the ‘growth maximizing’ rate of inflation for Ghana using data from Bank of Ghana and WDI. The study finds that economic performance is higher under low inflation era than when inflation is high. It also established the revenue maximizing rate of inflation using the Laffer curve approach is lower than the growth maximizing rate of inflation. Also, from the results, it can be deduced that the single digit inflation target set by the Central bank is not growth maximizing.

Share and Cite:

P. Quartey, "Price Stability and the Growth Maximizing Rate of Inflation for Ghana," Modern Economy, Vol. 1 No. 3, 2010, pp. 180-194. doi: 10.4236/me.2010.13021.

Conflicts of Interest

The authors declare no conflicts of interest.

References

[1] J. H. Boyd, R. E. Levine and B. D. Smith, “The Impact of Inflation on Financial Sector Performance,” Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 47, No. 2, 2001, pp. 221-248.
[2] M. Mariotti, “An Examination of the Impact of Economic Policy on Long-Run Economic Growth: An Application of Vecm Structure to a Middle Income Context,” South African Journal of Economics, Vol. 70, No. 4, 2002, pp. 689-724.
[3] M. S. Khan and A. S. Senhadji, “Threshold Effects in the Relationship between Inflation and Growth,” IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 48, No. 1, 2001, pp. 1-21
[4] K. Nell, “Is Low Inflation a Recondition for Faster Growth? The Case of South Africa,” Working Paper No. 0011. Studies in Economics, University of Kent, Kent, UK, 2000.
[5] Bank of Ghana, Statistical Bulletin, 2007.
[6] N. K. Sowa and P. Abradu-Otoo, “Inflation Management in Ghana—The Output Factor,” Paper presented at the Bank of England/Cornell University Workshop on New Developments in Monetary Policy in Emerging Economies, London, 17-18 July 2007.
[7] J. Ammer and R. T. Freeman, “Inflation Targeting in the 1990s: The Experience of New Zealand, Canada and the UK,” Journal of Economics and Business, Vol. 47, 1995, pp. 165-192.
[8] N. Apergis, S. Miller, A. Panethimitakis and A. Vamva-kidis, “Inflation Targeting and Output Growth: Evidence from the European Union,” IMF Working Paper WP/05/89, Washington DC, 2005.
[9] P. Arestis, G. M. Corporale and A. Cipollini, “Does In-flation Targeting Affect the Trade-Off Between Output Gap and Inflation Variability,” Manchester School, Vol. 70, No. 4, 2002, pp. 528-545.
[10] S. Fischer, “Maintaining Price Stability,” Finance and Development, Vol. 33, No. 4. 1996, pp. 34-37.
[11] P. Quartey, “Finance and SME Development in Ghana,” Journal of African Business, Vol. 4, No. 1, 2003, pp. 37-55.
[12] V. Gockal and S. Hanif, “Relationship between Inflation and Economic Growth,” Working Paper No. WP2004/04. Reserve Bank of Fiji, Fiji, 2004.
[13] ISSER State of Ghanaian Economy Report 2006, Univer-sity of Ghana.
[14] J. Tobin, “Money and Economic Growth,” Econometrica, Vol. 33, No. 4, 1965, pp. 671-684
[15] M. Sidrauski, “Rational Choice and Patterns of Growth in a Monetary Economy,” The American Economic Review, Vol. 57, No. 2, 1967, pp. 534-544.
[16] A. C. Stockman, “Anticipated Inflation and the Capital Stock in a Cash-in-Advance Economy,” Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 8, No. 3, 1981, pp. 387-393.
[17] S. Fischer, “The Role of Macroeconomic Factors in Growth,” NBER Working Paper No. 4565, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA, 1993.
[18] P. L. Rousseau and P. Wachtel, “Inflation, Financial De-velopment and Growth,” 2000. http://www.ssrn.com/abstract=251589
[19] M. Gillman and K. Michal, “Modelling the Effect of In-flation: Growth, Levels, and Tobin,” In: D. K. Levine, W. Zame, L. Ausubel, P.-A Chiappori, B. Ellickson, A. Rubinstein and L. Samuelson, Eds., Proceedings of the 2002 North American Summer Meetings of the Econo-metric Society: Money, 2002. http://www.dklevine.Com/ proceedings/money.htm
[20] R. J. Barro, “Inflation and Economic Growth,” NBER Working Paper No. 5326, Cambridge, USA, 1995.
[21] M. Bruno and W. Easterly, “Inflation Crisis and Long-Run Growth,” Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 41, No. 1, 1998, pp. 3-26.
[22] F. Breuss, “Was ECB’s Monetary Policy Optimal?” At-lantic Economic Journal, Vol. 30, No. 3, 2002, pp. 298-321.
[23] S. Cocchetti and M. Ehrmann, “Does inflation increase output volatility? An international comparison of policy-makers’ preferences and outcomes,” Working Paper No. 69, Central Bank of Chile, Santiago, Chile, 2000.
[24] D. Hodge, “Inflation and Growth in South Africa,” Cam-bridge Journal of Economics, Vol. 30, No. 2, 2006, pp. 163-180.
[25] G. A. Akerlof, W. Dickens and G. Perry, “The Macroe-conomics of Low Inflation,” Brookings Papers on Eco-nomic Activity, 1996, Vol. 1, pp. 1-59.
[26] G. A. Akerlof, W. Dickens and G. Perry, “Near-Rational Wage and Price Setting and the Long-Run Phillips Curve,” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2000, Vol. 1, pp. 1-60.
[27] N. K. Sowa, “Fiscal Deficits, Output and Inflation Targets in Ghana,” World Development, Vol. 22, No. 8, 1994, pp. 1105-1117.
[28] C. Adam, B. Ndulu and N. K. Sowa, “Liberalization, Seignorage Revenue in Kenya, Ghana and Tanzania,” Journal of Development Studies, Vol. 34, No. 4, 1996, pp. 531-553.
[29] J. H. Boyd, R. E. Levine and B. D. Smith, “Capital Market Imperfections in a Monetary Growth Model,” Economic Theory, Vol. 11, No. 2, 1998, pp. 241-273
[30] E. Huybens and B. Smith, “Inflation, Financial Markets and Long-Run Real Activity,” Journal of Monetary Eco-nomics, Vol. 43, No. 2, 1998, pp. 283-315.
[31] S. Choi, B. Smith and J. H. Boyd, “Inflation, Financial Markets and Capital Formation,” Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, Vol. 78, 1996, pp. 41-58.
[32] J. H. Boyd and B. Champ, “Inflation, Banking and Eco-nomic Growth,” Economic Commentary, Ohio, USA: Federal Bank of Cleveland, 2006.
[33] R. G. King and R. Levine, “Finance, Entrepreneurship and Growth: Theory and Evidence,” Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 32, No. 3, 1993, pp. 513-542.
[34] R. Levine and S. Zervos, “Stock Markets, Banks and Economic Growth,” American Economic Review, Vol. 88, No. 3, 1998, pp. 537-558.
[35] Z. Xu, “Financial Development, Investment and Economic Growth,” Economic Inquiry, Vol. 38, No. 2, 2000, pp. 331-344.
[36] M. Li, “Inflation and Economic Growth: Threshold Effects and Transmission Mechanisms,” CEA Working Paper 0176, Department of Economics, University of Alberta, Canada, 2006.
[37] E. Huybens and B. Smith, “Financial Market Frictions, Monetary Policy and Capital Accumulation in a Small Open Economy,” Journal of Economic Theory, Vol. 81, No. 2, 1999, pp. 353-400.
[38] G. Khan and K. Parish, “Conducting Monetary Policy with Inflation Targets,” Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Review, Vol. 83, 1998, pp. 5-32.
[39] M. King, 1997. “Changes in UK Monetary Policy: Rules and Discretion in Practice,” Journal of Monetary Eco-nomics, Vol. 39, No. 1, 1997, pp. 81-97.
[40] F. S. Mishkin and A. S. Posen, “Inflation Targeting: Les-sons from Four African Countries,” Federal Reserve Bank of New York Economic Policy Review, Vol. 3, No. 3, 1997, pp. 9-11
[41] S. Fischer, “Relative Price Variability and Inflation in the United States and Germany,” European Economic Review, Vol. 18, No. 2, 1982, pp. 171-196.
[42] P. Cagan, “The Monetary Dynamics of Hyper Inflation,” In: M. Freedman, Ed., Studies in Quantity Theory of Money, University of Chicago Press, Chicago, 1956, pp. 25-117.
[43] S. Johansen, “Statistical Analysis of Cointegrating Vec-tors”. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Vol. 12, No. 2-3, 1988, pp. 231-254.
[44] S. Johansen,“Domestic and Foreign Effects on Prices in an Open Economy: The Case of Denmark,” Journal of Policy Modelling, Vol. 14, No. 4, 1992, pp. 401-428.
[45] R. Pollin and A. Zhu 2005. “Inflation and economic growth: A cross-country non-linear analysis,” Working Paper Number 109, Political Economy Research Institute Massachusetts, USA.
[46] L. E. O. Svensson, “Optimal Inflation Targets, Conserva-tive Central Banks and Linear Inflation Contracts,” American Economic Review, Vol. 87, No. 1, 1997, pp. 98-114.
[47] L. E. O. Svensson, “How Should Monetary Policy Be Conducted in an Era of Price Stability? A Symposium sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City,” New Challenges for Monetary Policy, 1999a, pp. 195-259.
[48] L. E. O. Svensson, “Inflation Targeting as a Monetary Policy Rule,” Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 43, No. 3, 1999b, pp. 607-654.

Copyright © 2024 by authors and Scientific Research Publishing Inc.

Creative Commons License

This work and the related PDF file are licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.