Share This Article:

Trend and Periodicity Analysis in Rainfall Pattern of Nira Basin, Central India

Abstract Full-Text HTML Download Download as PDF (Size:941KB) PP. 60-70
DOI: 10.4236/ajcc.2014.31006    4,815 Downloads   8,643 Views   Citations

ABSTRACT

Seasonal and annual rainfall data of the stations: Akluj, Baramati, Bhor and Malsiras stations located in Nira Basin, Central India, were analyzed for studying trend and periodicity using 104 years’ rainfall data. The analysis was carried out by using Mann-Kendall (MK), Modified Mann-Kendall (MMK) and Theil and Sen’s slope estimator tests describing rising trend at all the stations. However, it is statistically significant at Akluj and Bhor stations at 10% significance level. Bhor station showed the maximum increase in percentage change i.e. 0.28% in annual rainfall. Monsoon and post-monsoon seasonal rainfall shows a rising trend while the summer and winter seasonal rainfall shows a falling trend. Wavelet analysis showed prominent annual rainfall periods ranging from 2 to 8 years at all the stations after 1960s resulting in describing more changes in the rainfall patterns after 1960s.

Conflicts of Interest

The authors declare no conflicts of interest.

Cite this paper

Murumkar, A. and Arya, D. (2014) Trend and Periodicity Analysis in Rainfall Pattern of Nira Basin, Central India. American Journal of Climate Change, 3, 60-70. doi: 10.4236/ajcc.2014.31006.

References

[1] Douglas, E.M., Vogel, R.M. and Knoll, C.N. (2000) Trends in Flood and Low Flows in the United States: Impact of Spatial Correlation. Journal of Hydrology, 240, 90-105. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1694(00)00336-X
[2] Partal, T. and Kahya, E. (2006) Trend Analysis in Turish Precipitation Data. Hydrologic Process, 20, 2011-2026.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/hyp.5993
[3] Basistha, A., Arya, D.S. and Goel, N.K. (2008) An Analysis of Historical Rainfall Change in Indian Himalayas. International Journal of Climatology, 29, 555-572. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.1706
[4] Kumar, V. and Jain, S.K. (2011) Trends in Rainfall Amount and Number of Rainy Days in River Basins of India (1951-2004). Hydrology Research, 42, 290-306. http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/nh.2011.067
[5] Jain, S.K., Kumar, V. and Saharia, M. (2012) Analysis of Rainfall and Temperature Trends in Northeast India. International Journal of Climatology, 33, 968-978. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.3483
[6] Murumkar, A., Arya, D.S. and Rahman, M.M. (2013) Seasonal and Annual Variations of Rainfall Pattern in the Jamuneswari Basin, Bangladesh. On a Sustainable Future of the Earth’s Natural Resources (ed.). Springer Earth System Sciences, Springer-Verlag, Berlin, Heidelberg, 349-362.
[7] Kothyari, U.C. and Singh, V.P. (1996) Rainfall and Temperature Trends in India. Hydrological Processes, 10, 357-372.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1099-1085(199603)10:3<357::AID-HYP305>3.0.CO;2-Y
[8] Arora, M., Goel, N.K. and Singh, P. (2005) Evaluation of Temperature Trends over India. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 50, 81-93.
[9] Chattopadhyay, N. and Hulme, M. (1997) Evaporation and Potential Evapotranspiration in India under Conditions of Recent and Future Climate Change. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 87, 55-73.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0168-1923(97)00006-3
[10] Burn, D.H. and Hesch, N.M. (2007) Trends in Evaporation for the Canadian Prairies. Journal of Hydrology, 336, 61-73.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2006.12.011
[11] Zhang, X., Harvey, K.D., Hogg, W.D. and Yuzyk, T.R. (2001) Trends in Canadian Streamflow. Water Resources Research, 37, 987-998. http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2000WR900357
[12] Cigizoglu, H.K., Bayazit, M. and Onoz, B. (2005) Trends on the Maximum, Mean and Low Flows of Turkish Rivers. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 6, 280-295. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JHM412.1
[13] Van Belle, G. and Hughes, J.P. (1984) Nonparametric Tests for Trend in Water Quality. Water Resources Research, 20, 127-136. http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/WR020i001p00127
[14] Kalayci, S. and Kahya, E. (1998) Detection of Water Quality Trends in the Rivers of the Susurluk Basin. Turkish Journal of Engineering and Environmental Science, 22, 503-514.
[15] Mooley, D.A. and Parthasarthy, B. (1984) Fluctuations of All India Summer Monsoon Rainfall during 1871-1978. Climatic Change, 6, 287-301. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00142477
[16] Thapliyal, V. and Kulshrestha, S.M. (1991) Decadal Changes and Trends over India. Mausam, 42, 333-338.
[17] Kumar, V., Jain, S.K. and Singh, Y. (2010) Analysis of Long-Term Rainfall Trends in India. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 55, 484-496. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2010.481373
[18] Koteswaram, P. and Alvi, S.M.A. (1969) Secular Trends and Periodicities in Rainfall at West Coast Stations in India. Current Science, 38, 229-231.
[19] Jagannathan, P. and Parthasarathy, B. (1973) Trends and Periodicities of Rainfall over India. Monthly Weather Review, 101, 371-375. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1973)101<0371:TAPORO>2.3.CO;2
[20] Raghavendra, V.K. (1974) Trends and Periodicities of Rainfall in Sub-Divisions of Maharashtra State. Indian Journal of Meteorology and Geophysics, 25, 197-210.
[21] Chaudhary, A. and Abhyankar, V.P. (1979) Does Precipitation Pattern Foretell Gujarat Climate Becoming Arid. Mausam, 30, 85-90.
[22] Kumar, V., Singh, P. and Jain, S.K. (2005) Rainfall Trends over Himachal Pradesh, Western Himalaya, India. Conference on Development of Hydro Power Projects—A Prospective Challenge, Shimla, 20-22 April 2005.
[23] Dash, S.K., Jenamani, R.K., Kalsi, S.R. and Panda, S.K. (2007) Some Evidence of Climate Change in Twentieth-Century India. Climatic Change, 85, 299-321. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-007-9305-9
[24] Kumar, V. and Jain, S.K. (2010) Trends in Seasonal and Annual Rainfall and Rainy Days in Kashmir Valley in the Last Century. Quaternary International, 212, 64-69. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.quaint.2009.08.006
[25] Mann, H.B. (1945) Non-Parametric Tests against Trend. Econometrica, 13, 245-259.
http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1907187
[26] Kendall, M.G. (1955) Rank Correlation Methods. Griffin, London.
[27] Steele, T.D., Gilroy, E.J. and Hawkinson, R.O. (1974) Techniques for the Assessment of Areal and Temporal Variations in Streamflow Quality. Open File Report, US Geological Survey, Washington DC.
[28] Hirsch, R.M., Slack, J.R. and Smith, R.A. (1982) Techniques of Trend Analysis for Monthly Water Quality Data. Water Resources Research, 18, 107-121. http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/WR018i001p00107
[29] Kahya, E. and Kalayci, S. (2004) Trend Analysis of Streamflow in Turkey. Journal of Hydrology, 289, 128-144.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2003.11.006
[30] Haan, C.T. (1995) Statistical Methods in Hydrology. Iowa State University Press, Ames, 378.
[31] Yue, S., Pilon, P., Phinney, B. and Cavadias, G. (2002) The Influence of Autocorrelation on the Ability to Detect Trend in Hydrological Series. Hydrological Processes, 16, 1807-1829. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/hyp.1095
[32] Hamed, K.H. and Rao, A.R. (1998) A Modified Mann-Kendall Trend Test for Autocorrelated Data. Journal of Hydrology, 204, 182-196. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1694(97)00125-X
[33] Rao, A.R., Hamed, K.H. and Chen, H.L. (2003) Non-Stationarities in Hydrologic and Environmental Time Series. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, 362.
[34] Daubechies, I. (1992) Ten Lectures on Wavelets. CSBM-NSF Series Application Mathematics, 61, SIAM Publication, Philadelphia, 357.
[35] Polikar, R. (1999) The Story of Wavelets. In Mastorakis, N., Ed., Physics and Modern Topics in Mechanical and Electrical Engineering. World Scientific and Engineering Society Press, Athens, 192-197.
[36] Pisoft, P., Kalvova, J. and Brazdil, R. (2004) Cycles and Trends in the Czech Temperatures Series Using Wavelet Transform. International Journal of Climatology, 24, 1661-1670. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.1095
[37] Nakken, M. (1999) Wavelet Analysis of Rainfall-Runoff Variability Isolating Climatic from Anthropogenic Patterns. Environmental Modelling & Software, 14, 283-295. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S1364-8152(98)00080-2
[38] Smith, L.C., Turcotte, D.L. and Isacks, B.L. (1998) Stream Flow Characterization and Feature Detection Using a Discrete Wavelet Transform. Hydrological Processes, 12, 233-249.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1099-1085(199802)12:2<233::AID-HYP573>3.0.CO;2-3
[39] Yan, Z., Tsimplis, M.N. and Woolf, D. (2004) Analysis of the Relationship between the North Atlantic Oscillation and Sea Level Changes in Northeast Europe. International Journal of Climatology, 24, 743-758.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.1035
[40] Park, J. and Mann, M.E. (2000) Inter-Annual Temperature Events and Shifts in Global Temperature: A Multiple Wavelet Correlation Approach. Earth Interactions, 19, 391-403.
[41] Penalba, O.C. and Vargas, W.M. (2004) Interdecadal and Interannual Variations of Annual and Extreme Precipitation over Central-Northeastern Argentina. International Journal of Climatology, 24, 1565-1580.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.1069
[42] Torrence, C. and Compo, G.P. (1998) A Practical Guide to Wavelet Analysis. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 79, 61-78. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1998)079<0061:APGTWA>2.0.CO;2
[43] Helsel, D.R. and Hirsch, R.M. (2002) Statistical Methods in Water Resources. United States Geological Survey, 524.
[44] Santos, C.A.G., Galvao, C.O., Suzuki, K. and Trigo, R.M. (2001) Matsuyama City Rainfall Data Analysis Using Wavelet Transform. Annual Journal of Hydraulic Engineering-JSCE, 45, 211-216.
[45] Rupa Kumar, K., Pant, G.B., Parthasarathy, B. and Sontakke, N.A. (1992) Spatial and Sub Seasonal Patterns of the Long-Term Trends of Indian Summer Monsoon Precipitation. International Journal of Climatology, 12, 257-268.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.3370120303
[46] Kittel, T.G.F., Rosenbloom, N.A., Painter, T.H. and Schimel, D.S. (1995) VEMAP Modeling Participants. The VEMAP Integrated Database for Modeling United States Ecosystem/Vegetation Sensitivity to Climate Change. Journal of Biogeography, 22, 857-862. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2845986
[47] Hulme, M., Mitchell, J.F.B., Ingram, W., Johns, T.C., Lowe, J.A., New, M.G. and Viner, D. (1999) Climate Change Scenarios for Global Impacts Studies. Global Environmental Change, 9, S3-S19.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0959-3780(99)00015-1

  
comments powered by Disqus

Copyright © 2018 by authors and Scientific Research Publishing Inc.

Creative Commons License

This work and the related PDF file are licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.