Share This Article:

Characterizing, Monitoring and Forecasting of Drought in Jordan River Basin

Abstract Full-Text HTML Download Download as PDF (Size:638KB) PP. 1192-1202
DOI: 10.4236/jwarp.2013.512127    3,880 Downloads   6,957 Views   Citations

ABSTRACT

Jordan is very vulnerable to drought because of its location in the arid to semi-arid part of the Middle East. Droughts coupled with water scarcity are becoming a serious threat to the economic growth, social cohesion and political stability. Rainfall time series from four rain stations covering the Jordan River Basin were analyzed for drought characterization and forecasting using standardized precipitation index (SPI), Markov chain and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. The 7-year moving average of Amman data showed a decreasing trend while data from the other three stations were stable or showed an increasing trend. The frequency analysis indicated 2-year return period for near zero SPI values while the return period for moderate drought was 7 years. Successive droughts had occurred at least three times during the past 40 years. Severe droughts are expected once every 20 - 25 year period at all rain stations. The extreme droughts were rare events with return periods between 80 and 115 years. There are equal occurrence probabilities for drought and wet conditions in any given year, irrespective, of the condition in the previous year. The results showed that ARIMA model was successful in predicting the overall statistics with a given period at annual scales. The overall number of predicted/observed droughts during the validation periods were 2/2 severe droughts for Amman station and, 0/1, 1/1, 0/1 extreme droughts for Amman, Irbid and Mafraq stations, respectively. In addition, the ARIMA model also predicted 3 out of 4 actual moderate droughts for Amman and Mafraq stations. It was concluded that early warning of developing droughts can be deduced form the monthly Markov transitional probabilities. ARIMA models can be used as a forecasting tool of the future drought trends. Using the first and second order Markov probabilities can complement the ARIMA predictions.

Conflicts of Interest

The authors declare no conflicts of interest.

Cite this paper

K. Shatanawi, M. Rahbeh and M. Shatanawi, "Characterizing, Monitoring and Forecasting of Drought in Jordan River Basin," Journal of Water Resource and Protection, Vol. 5 No. 12, 2013, pp. 1192-1202. doi: 10.4236/jwarp.2013.512127.

References

[1] D. A. Wilhite, “Preparing for Drought: A Guidebook for Developing Countries,” Climate Unit, United Nations Environment Program, Nairobi, Kenya, 1992.
[2] G. Rossi, “An Integrated Approach to Drought Mitigation in Mediterranean Regions,” In: G. Rossi, et al., Eds., Tools for Drought Mitigation in Mediterranean Regions, Kluwer Academic Publishers, 2003, pp. 3-18.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-94-010-0129-8_1
[3] L. Pereira, I. Cordery and I. Iacovides, “Coping with Water Scarcity: Addressing the Challenges,” Springer, Dordrecht, 2009, p. 382.
[4] C. Karavitis, C. Chortaria, S. Alexandris, C. Vasilakou and D. Tsesmelis, “Development of the Standardized Precipitation Index for Greece,” Urban Water Journal, Vol. 9, No. 6, 2012, pp. 401-407.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/1573062X.2012.690431
[5] A. Mishra, and V. P. Singh, “A Review of Drought Concepts,” Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 391, No. 1, 2010, pp. 202-216. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.07.012
[6] A. A. Paulo, R. D. Rosa and L. S. Pereira, “Climate Trends and Behavior of Drought Indices Based on Precipitation and Evapotranspiration in Portugal,” Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Vol. 12, No. 5, 2012, pp. 1481-1491. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-12-1481-2012
[7] W. Palmer, “Meteorological Drought,” Research Paper, US Department of Commerce Weather Bureau, Washington DC, No. 45, 1965.
[8] N. D. Strommen, R. P. Motha, “An Operational Early Warning Agricultural Weather System,” In: D. A. Wilhite and W. E. Easterling, Eds., Planning for Drought: Toward a Reduction of Societal Vulnerability, West View Press, Boulder, 1987.
[9] T. Mckee, N. Doesken and J. Kleist, “The Relationship of Drought Frequency and Duration to Time Scales,” Proceedings of the 8th Conference on Applied Climatology, Anaheim, 17-22 January 1993.
[10] S. M. Quiring and T. N. Papkryiakou, “An Evaluation of Agricultural Drought Indices for the Canadian Prairies: Agricultural and Forest Meteorology,” Vol. 118, 2003, pp. 49-62. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0168-1923(03)00072-8
[11] B. L. loyd-Hughes and M. A. Saunders, “A Drought Climatology for Europe,” International Journal of Climatology, Vol. 22, No. 13, 2002, pp. 1571-1592.
[12] B. Bonaccorso, I. Bordi, A. Cancelliere, G. Rossi and A. Sutera, “Spatial Variability of Drought: An Analysis of the SPI in Sicily,” Water Resources Management, Vol. 17, No. 4, 2003, pp. 273-296.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1024716530289
[13] A. A. Paulo and L. S. Pereira, “Prediction of SPI Drought Class Transitions Using Markov Chains,” Water Resource Management, Vol. 21, No. 10, 2007, pp. 1813-1827.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11269-006-9129-9
[14] A. Loukas, L. Vasiliades and J. Tzabiras, “Evaluation of Climate Change on Drought Impulses in ThessalymGreece,” European Water, Vol. 17, No. 18, 2007, pp. 17-28.
[15] L. Vasiliades, A. Loukas and G. Pastsonas, “Evaluation of a Statistical Downscaling Procedure for the Estimation of Climate Change Impacts on Drought,” Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Vol. 9, 2009, pp. 879-894. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-9-879-2009
[16] Z. Zhang, C. Xu, B. Young, J. Hu and Z. Sun, “Understanding the Changing Characteristic of Drought in Sudan and the Corresponding Components of the Hydrologic Cycle,” Journal of Hydrometeorology, Vol. 13, No. 5, 2012, pp. 1520-1535.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-11-0109.1
[17] R. Dhakar, V. K. Sehgal and S. Pradhan, “Study on Inter-Seasonal and Intra-Seasonal Relationships of Meteorological and Agricultural Drought Indices in the Raiasthan State of India,” Journal of Arid Environments, Vol. 97, 2013, pp. 108-119.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jaridenv.2013.06.001
[18] J. R. McAuliffe and E. P. Hamerlynck, “Perennial Plant Mortality in the Sonoran and Mojave Deserts in Response to Severe,” Multi-Year Drought, Vol. 74, No. 8, 2010, pp. 885-896.
[19] N. B. Guttman, “Accepting the Standardized Precipitation Index: A Calculation Algorithm,” Journal of the American Water Resources Association, Vol. 3, No. 2, 1999, pp. 311-322.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-1688.1999.tb03592.x
[20] M. J. Hayes, M. D. Svoboda, D. A. Wilhite and O. V. Vanyarkho, “Monitoring the 1996 Drought Using the Standardized Precipitation Index,” Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 80, No. 3, 1999, pp. 429-438.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1999)080<0429:MTDUTS>2.0.CO;2
[21] A. Cancelliere and J. D. Salas, “Drought Length Properties for Periodic-Stochastic Hydrology Data,” Water Resources Research, Vol. 40, No. 2, 2004.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2002WR001750
[22] V. K. Lohani and G. V. Loganathan, “An Early Warning System for Drought Management Using the Palmer Drought Index,” Journal of the American Water Resources Association, Vol. 33, No. 6, 1997, pp. 1375-1386.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-1688.1997.tb03560.x
[23] A. A. Paulo, E. Ferreira, C. Coelho and L. S. Pereira, “Drought Class Transition Analysis through Markov and Log Linear Models: An Approach to Early Warning,” Agricultural Water Management, Vol. 77, No. 1-3, 2005, pp. 59-81. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2004.09.039
[24] A. A. Paulo and L. S. Pereira, “Stochastic Prediction of Drought Class Transitions,” Water Resource Management, Vol. 22 No. 9, 2008, pp. 1277-1296.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11269-007-9225-5
[25] D. C. Montgomery and L. A. Johnson, “Forecasting and Time Series Analysis,” McGraw-Hill, New York, 1967.
[26] G. E. P. Box and G. M. Jenkins, “Time Series Analysis, Forecasting and Control,” Holden-Day, San Francisco, 1970.
[27] N. Momani, “Time Series Analysis Model for Rainfall Data in Jordan: Case Study for Using Time Series Analysis,” American Journal of Environmental Sciences, Vol. 5, No. 5, 2009, pp. 599-604.
http://dx.doi.org/10.3844/ajessp.2009.599.604
[28] H. H. Chiew, M. J. Stewadson and T. A. McMahon, “Comparison of Six Rainfall-Runoffmodelling Approaches,” Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 147, No. 1, 1993, pp. 1-36.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0022-1694(93)90073-I
[29] M. Shatanawi, “Social and Economical Impact of Droughts in Jordan,” Disaster Management Workshop, 9-14 November 1993, Amman, Disaster Management Program of the United Nations.
[30] M. R. Shatanawi, Y. Al-Zubi and O. Al-Jayoussi, “Irrigation Management Dynamics in the Jordan Valley under Drought Conditions,” In: G. Rossi, et al., Eds., Tools for Drought Mitigation in Mediterranean Regions, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Vol. 44, 2003, pp. 243-258.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-94-010-0129-8
[31] A. H. Al-Salihi, “Drought Identification and Characterization in Jordan,” Journal of Arid Environments, Vol. 53 No. 4, 2003, pp. 585-606.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1006/jare.2002.1057
[32] M. M. A. Smadi and Zghoul, “A Sudden Change in Rainfall Characteristics in Amman, Jordan during the Mid1950s,” American Journal of Environmental Sciences, Vol. 2, No. 3, 2006, pp. 84-91.
http://dx.doi.org/10.3844/ajessp.2006.84.91
[33] M. R. Hamdi, M. Abu-Allaban, A. Al-Shayeb, M. Jaber and N. M. Momani, “Climate Change in Jordan: A Comprehensive Examination Approach,” American Journal of Environmental Sciences, Vol. 5, No. 1, 2009, pp. 58-68.
http://dx.doi.org/10.3844/ajessp.2009.58.68
[34] M. I. Al-Qinna, N. A. Hammouri, M. M. Obeidat and F. Y. Ahmed, “Drought Analysis in Jordan under Current and Future Climates,” Climatic Change, Vol. 106, No. 3, 2011, pp. 421-440.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-010-9954-y
[35] Department of Statistics (DOS), “The Statistical Year Book of 2012,” DOS, Amman, 2012.
[36] S. Mieruch, S. Noel, H. Bovensmann, J. P. Burrows and J. A. Freund, “Markov Chain Analysis of Regional Climates,” Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, Vol. 17, No. 6, 2010, pp. 651-661. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/npg-17-651-2010
[37] M. B. Priestley, “Spectral Analysis and Time Series,” Academic Press, London, 1981.
[38] R. J. Hyndman and Y. Khandakar, “Automatic Time Series Forecasting: The Forecast Package for R,” Journal of Statistical Software, Vol. 27, No. 3, 2008, pp. 1-22.
[39] A. Dahamsheh and H. Aksoy, “Structural Characteristics of Annual Precipitation Data in Jordan,” Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Vol. 88, No. 3-4, 2007, pp. 201-212.

  
comments powered by Disqus

Copyright © 2019 by authors and Scientific Research Publishing Inc.

Creative Commons License

This work and the related PDF file are licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.