Share This Article:

China’s New Energy Passenger Vehicle Development Scenario Analysis Based on Life Time Cost Modelling

Abstract Full-Text HTML Download Download as PDF (Size:1217KB) PP. 71-79
DOI: 10.4236/lce.2013.42008    4,224 Downloads   7,209 Views   Citations

ABSTRACT

Based on the analysis on the development trend of vehicle technology, vehicle price, vehicle fuel economy and fuel supply price, the new energy vehicle (NEV) passenger car development scale is projected on different scenario with the application of life time cost model. Three scenarios are set to find electric vehicle (EV) and fuel cell vehicle (FCV) development potential in future to their pessimistic and optimistic assumptions in China. The results are demonstrated: 1) NEV development needs a long time due to high initial cost for vehicle buyer; 2) EV will develop quickly under if there is quick development of battery technology; and 3) FCV can only develop in a large scale in 20 - 30 years even in the optimistic scenario.

Conflicts of Interest

The authors declare no conflicts of interest.

Cite this paper

Ou, X. , Zhang, Q. , Zhang, X. and Zhang, X. (2013) China’s New Energy Passenger Vehicle Development Scenario Analysis Based on Life Time Cost Modelling. Low Carbon Economy, 4, 71-79. doi: 10.4236/lce.2013.42008.

References

[1] X. Ou, X. Zhang and S. Chang, “Scenario Analysis on Alternative Fuel/Vehicle for China’s Future Road Transport: Life-Cycle Energy Demand and GHG Emissions,” Energy Policy, Vol. 38, No. 8, 2010, pp. 3943-3956. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2010.03.018
[2] CAERC (China Automotive Energy Research Center, Tsinghua University), “Sustainable Automotive Energy System in China,” Springer Press, Berlin Heidelberg, 2013.
[3] Y. Ren, H. Li, R. Sun and L. Guan, “Analysis on Model of Life Cycle Cost of Electric Vehicle Based on Consumer Perspective,” Technology Economics, Vol. 28, No. 11, 2009, pp. 54-58.
[4] Z. H. Cai, X. M. Ou, Q. Zhang and X. L. Zhang, “Full Lifetime Cost Analysis of Battery, Plug-In Hybrid and FCEVs in China in the Near Future,” Frontier in Energy, Vol. 6, No. 2, 2012, pp. 107-111. doi:10.1007/s11708-012-0182-1
[5] D. V. Wagner, F. An and C. Wang, “Structure and Impacts of Fuel Economy Standards for Passenger Cars in China,” Energy Policy, Vol. 37, No. 10, 2009, pp. 3803-3811. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2009.07.009
[6] H. Hong, Z. L. Yao, K. B. He and X. Yu, “Fuel Consumption Rates of Passenger Cars in China: Labels versus Real-World,” Energy Policy, Vol. 39, No. 11, 2011, pp. 7130-7135. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2011.08.031
[7] H. Huo, Q. Zhang, K. B. He, Z. L. Yao and M. Wang, “Vehicle-Use Intensity in China: Current Status and Future Trend,” Energy Policy, Vol. 43, 2012, pp. 6-16. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2011.09.019
[8] CAERC (China Automotive Energy Research Center Tsinghua University), “Life Cycle Cost Data for Vehicle and Fuel in China,” Technology Report, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 2010.

  
comments powered by Disqus

Copyright © 2018 by authors and Scientific Research Publishing Inc.

Creative Commons License

This work and the related PDF file are licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.