In recent years we are observing devastating cyclones like Nargis, Gonu, Sidr, Liala, Phet etc in the North Indian Ocean associated with heavy rains, thunderstorm, high tide and intense winds that caused shocking destructions in the coastal areas. As these are originating over the Ocean and propagating towards land, they also change physical property as well as biological structure of the Ocean. In recent years, several attempts were made to associate tropical cyclone trends with climate change resulting from green house warming. The studies have indicated an increase in intense cyclones in the Arabian Sea. Time series analysis of ocean colour data have revealed rapid and profound change in the productivity pattern over the last few years in the Arabian Sea that appears to be related to the warming trends being experienced over the Asian subcontinent. In view of the above, a study was carried out to examine the frequency of cyclonic disturbances in the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal and its effect in modulating the productivity patterns. Data on the monthly and annual occurrences of tropical cyclones in the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea were collected from 1908 to 2007 from SAARC Meteorological Research Centre and Indian Meteorological Department. Sea surface temperature (SST) from NOAA-AVHRR and phytoplankton biomass indexed as chlorophyll-a concentration from Sea WiFs for ten years (1998-2007) were used to study the physical and biological effects of cyclonic events in the Arabian Sea (AS) and the Bay of Bengal (BOB). Analysis of the monthly and annual occurrences of tropical cyclone reveals an increasing trend of cyclonic disturbances in the AS whereas there is a decreasing trend in the BOB in the last decade (1998-2007). SST analysis indicates decrease in monthly average SST by 1.5℃ to 1.75℃ in the AS and 1.5℃ to 1.25℃ in the BOB in the pre-monsoon season. Phytoplankton biomass was observed to increase by a factor of two after the passage of cyclone. Results of the ten year analysis and comparison with the climatology showed that frequent occurrence of cyclonic events that cause short term-nutrient enrichment of upper-stratified ocean resulting in enhanced biological productivity and perturbations in the otherwise stable and seasonally-varying ecological structure of the North Indian Ocean.
Cyclonic events are characterized by a low-pressure center and numerous thunderstorms. In tropical north Indian Ocean while cyclones are known as tropical cyclones, in North Atlantic Ocean and northwestern Pacific Ocean they are known as hurricanes and typhoons. There are six favorable conditions for cyclogenesis [
Arabian Sea (AS) and Bay of Bengal (BOB) are two basins in North Indian Ocean. Though AS and BOB are landlocked to the north, they show large contrast in salinity, SST and even productivity pattern [
In this paper, we discuss the frequency of cyclonic disturbances in the AS and the BOB using 100 years data from 1908 to 2007 and its effect in modulating the changing productivity pattern using daily and monthly data of Sea surface temperature (SST) from NOAAAVHRR and phytoplankton biomass indexed as chlorophyll-a concentration from SeaWiFs for ten years (1998-2007) in the pre-monsoon and post-monsoon season in the open ocean. We have also discussed the comparison of the effect between the AS and the BOB. This paper demonstrates that frequent occurrence of cyclonic events causes short term-nutrient enrichment of upper-stratified ocean resulting in enhanced biological productivity and perturbations in the otherwise stable and seasonally-varying ecological structure can bring longterm shift in average weather conditions and ecological structure of the North Indian Ocean.
The monthly and annual occurrences of tropical cyclones in BOB (−10˚S to 32˚E, 78˚E to 110˚E) and AS (−10˚S to 32˚E, 32˚E to 78˚E) in winter monsoon (DJFM), premonsoon (AM) summer monsoon (JJAS), and post monsoon (ON) season were collected from 1908 to 1996 from SAARC Meteorological Research Centre (SMRC) publication No. 1 [
The bathymetry image was generated using a gridded data obtained from ETOPO5. The gridded data is in 30 minutes resolution. The cyclonic disturbances in open ocean (>500 mt) were taken for study.
The Global daily and monthly data of NOAA-AVHRR daytime SST of 4 km resolution and SeaWiFs chlorophyll-a of 9 km resolution were obtained from 1998 to 2007 from ftp://podaac.jpl.nasa.gov and http://oceancolor. gsfc.nasa.gov.
The version of NOAA-AVHRR SST was pathfinder version 5. It was a new reanalysis of the AVHRR data stream using multi-channel sea surface temperature algorithm developed by Rosensiel School of marine and Atmospheric Science (RSMAS) and the NOAA National Oceanographic Data Centre. Methods involved generating radiance images from raw data using calibration coefficients obtained from header file and generating brightness temperature using Plank’s law and McClain’s split enhanced algorithm for computing SST. Processing steps produced twice daily global SST. Monthly data was produced by temporal averages of daily data.
Level-3 binned file format was used for SeaWiFs chlorophyll-a. The ocean colour algorithm OC4V5, a four band (443,490,510,555), maximum band ratio proposed by O’Reilly et al. [
Analysis for the study: Subset for BOB (−10˚S to 32˚N, 78˚E to 110˚E) and AS (−10˚S to 32˚N, 32˚E to 78˚E) was generated. For each of the images of SST and chlorophyll images square grids having a resolution of 0.225 degrees (25 km ´ 25 km) were generated for analysis and the corresponding bathymetry grids were also generated. The grids were generated using the vector module in ERDAS IMAGINE of version 9.1 and the minimum, maximum, mean and standard deviation of the SST and chlorophyll images were estimated for each grid.
Generation of SST and chlorophyll-a climatology image: Monthly climatology of SST and chlorophyll-a was prepared averaging each square grid of resolution 0.225 degree from 1998 to 2007. Standard deviation was also calculated. The range of standard deviation was within ±1.
Daily Analysis: 4 km SST images were degraded to 9 km SST image using degrade module of ERDAS IMAGINE. Then pixel basis analysis was done then with both 9 km SST and 9 km chlorophyll-a image.
Annual and decadal occurrence of cyclonic disturbances (CD) in the BOB and AS during 1908 to 2007 is shown in
The decadal variation shows that in the BOB there were two complete cycles consisting (1908 to 1957) period and (1957 to 1987) period. But 1908 to 1957 period in AS did not show remarkable variation and another period 1957 to 1987 in both AS and BOB showed the same type of trend. But after 1987 BOB showed the decreasing
trend and AS showed the increasing trend.
The post monsoon decadal variation of both BOB and AS showed same cyclic pattern up to 1987 and from 1988 to 2007 the increasing trend was observed in the AS whereas BOB did not show.
In pre-monsoon season AS showed continuous increasing trend up to 1977 and from 1978 to 1997 there were no cyclonic disturbances, but the present decade during 1998 to 2007 showed increasing trend and also it was 25% more than 100 years mean of occurrence of CD whereas cyclic pattern in occurrence of CD consisting (1908 to 1947), (1948 to 1987) and (1987 to 2007) periods were observed in the BOB in the pre-monsoon season.
SST and chlorophyll climatology for April, May and October, November during 1998 to 2007 period is shown in Figures 2(a) and (b).
Northern AS SST was from 28.5˚C to 29˚C whereas BOB SST was from 29.5˚C to 30.2˚C during May month. SST variation was from 29.5˚C to 30˚C in northern BOB whereas; SST variation was from 28.5˚C to 29.4˚C in the northern AS in October month. SST was lower in November month compared to that in October month in the northern Indian Ocean.
Chlorophyll ranged in the open ocean in the AS was from 0.1 to 0.19 mg/m3 in April month. Above 20˚N latitude 0.45 - 0.8 mg/m3 chlorophyll was observed in the north AS. In central BOB 0.1 - 0.15 mg/m3 chlorophyll-a variation was observed.
Chlorophyll-a variation was observed from 0.1 to 0.16 mg/m3 in the AS and from 0.1 to 0.15 mg/m3 in the BOB in May month in the open Ocean. Higher value of chlorophyll-a in a range 0.4 - 0.8 mg/m3 was observed in May in the 20˚N around Srilanka and around Oman coast from 2˚N - 10˚N latitude in the Arabian Sea. In post monsoon period chlorophyll-a concentration from 0.15 to 0.25 mg/m3 was observed in the open ocean in the BOB. Western AS showed high chlorophyll-a from 0.5 mg/m3 to 1 mg/m3 in the post monsoon period.
During the study period from1998 to 2007 CD which were occurred in the AS and BOB in the pre-monsoon season are shown in
Among the five CD in the AS in the pre-monsoon season, there were two VSCS in 1999 and 2001 and two SCS in 2002 and 2004 [18,20,21,23]. In 1998 there were a DD on 28 May 1998 in east-central AS, but it did not turn into CS [
Among the seven cyclonic disturbances in the BOB in the pre-monsoon season during 1908 to 2007 (
3.4.1.1. Very severe cyclonic storm (VSCS)
The SST variation along the storm track of VSCS of May 1999, 10 years May climatology and different noncyclonic May month (2003, 2005, 2006) is shown in
The variation of chlorophyll from 0.14 mg/m3 to 0.27
mg/m3 was observed in May chlorophyll climatology whereas in the northern AS, chlorophyll was higher compared to southern Arabian Sea along the storm track. Chlorophyll-a variation in May 1999 along the storm track was compared with 10-year climatology (
But the variation of SST and chlorophyll in May 2001 was within standard deviation of 10 years climatology.
3.4.1.2. Severe cyclonic storm (SCS)
The SST variation along the storm track in May climatology was from 29.25˚C to 30.10˚C. Mean SST variation in May 2004 along the storm track is shown in
From 11.5˚N latitude to 13.5˚N latitude the wind speed increased from D to SCS and from 13.5˚N to 15˚N wind speed decreased from SCS to CS [
The chlorophyll distribution was from 0.13 mg/m3 to 0.23 mg/m3 in May climatology along the storm track
3.4.1.3. Cyclonic storm
The minimum and maximum temperature was 28.9˚C and 30.35˚C along the storm track in the 10 years May climatology (
The mean SST variation in May 2002 along the storm track during May 2002 is shown in
The climatological May chlorophyll was ranged from 0.11 mg/m3 to 0.22 mg/m3 along the storm track (
In Arabian Sea in pre-monsoon season decrease in SST ~1˚C and increase in chlorophyll ~0.132567 mg/m3 was observed when wind speed was increased from D to DD and CS and SCS (
3.4.2.1. Very severe cyclonic storm May SST 2003 showed maximum cooling of ~1.5˚C along the storm track. With lower SST 1045 km from 5˚N to 14.5˚N showed higher chlorophyll-a distribution and maximum increased chlorophyll-a 0.1 mg/m3 was observed from climatology. The SST and chlorophyll-a distribution was within the standard deviation of 10 years climatology in May 2004 and April 2006.
3.4.2.2. Severe cyclonic storm In May month of 1998 the SST variation along the cyone track does not show any effect but the SST along the whole path was higher compared to the climatology SST. But when the wind speed increased from CS to SCS [
3.4.2.3. Cyclonic storm The SST was lower along whole storm path compared to climatology during May 2007. Maximum decrease of SST was ~1.25˚C compared to climatology around 16.5˚N latitude. Increased chlorophyll was observed roughly from 0.25 mg/m3 - 0.4 mg/m3 around 18.25˚N to 20˚N latitude in May 2007.
3.4.3.1. Severe cyclonic storm Maximum decrease of SST ~1˚C from 53.5˚E to 51˚E was observed from climatology in November 2003 where the variation of November SST climatology was from
28.17˚C to 29.18˚C with mean SST was 28.56˚C along the storm track. There were two areas from 59.5˚E to 57.5˚E and from 54.5˚E to 52.5˚E longitude in November 2003 showed high chlorophyll-a concentration compared to climatology and even that increase was beyond the standard deviation of 10 years climatology. Maximum increase of chlorophyll-a was ranged from 0.15 mg/m3 to 0.25 mg/m3 compared to climatology.
3.4.3.2. Cyclonic storm The SST and chlorophyll-a variation of October 1998 and October 2001 was within the standard deviation of 10 years climatology.
3.4.4.1. Super Cyclone In October 1999 maximum decrease of SST roughly from 0.5˚C to 2.0˚C was observed from climatology and low SST was observed around 17.5˚N to 20˚N whereas high chlorophyll was observed roughly around 16.5˚N to 18.5˚N and Increased of chlorophyll-a was doubled from 10 years chlorophyll-a climatology.
3.4.4.2. Very Severe Cyclonic storm November SST 2007 did not show any affect by VSCS, but along the whole path roughly ~1155 km November chlorophyll 2007 was higher than climatology. Maximum increase of chlorophyll was from 0.05 mg/m3 to 0.3 mg/m3 from climatology in November 2007.
The SST and chlorophyll variation was within standard deviation of 10 years climatology in November 1998, 2000. Around 15.5˚N latitude there were increased chlorophyll-a ~0.1 mg/m3 was observed in November 1998. 1˚C decrease of SST in November 2000 was observed around 81˚E longitude.
3.4.4.3. Cyclonic Storm The SST and chlorophyll-a variation in October 2000 and 2001 along the cyclone track were within the standard deviation of 10 years climatology.
To understand the anomaly in SST and chlorophyll in monthly images one example of cyclonic storm in the Arabian Sea during 6-10 May 2002 was taken for daily analysis. The duration of the cyclonic storm was 6 May, 2002 to 10 May 2002 [
SST variation on 18th April was taken as base for daily SST analysis. SST was varying from 28.4˚C to 30.3˚C along the storm track on 18th April 2002.
The variation of SST of 14 days before and 10 days after of cyclonic storm (during 22 April, 2002 to 22 May, 2002) across the storm path is shown in Figures 9 and 10.
The variation of SST on 22 April, 2002 and 23 April, 2002 was similar to the variation of SST of 18 April, 2002. From 24 April to 28 April higher SST compared to 18th April, 2002 was observed. On 26 April and 27 April 3.5˚C higher SST compared to 18 April was observed on 28 April lower SST was observed from 63˚E to 65˚E and 1 May onward lowering of SST was started. On 3 May maximum 4˚C lower SST was observed. Because of heavy cloud cover during cyclone period satellite data were not available.
After cyclonic storm on 11 May 2002 ~2˚C lowering of temperature was observed from 61˚E to 55˚E. On 13 May 2002 onwards the lowering of temperature was more and after 10 days on 21 May ~3˚C low SST was observed from 18th April.
The chlorophyll-a variation during 22 April 2002 to 1 May, 2002 was varying from 0.094 - 0.22 g/m3 across the storm track (
After cyclonic storm the distribution of chlorophyll during 11 May to 21 May was shown in
In order to understand how much area of the basin was affected by cyclonic storm, two examples of cyclonic disturbances in the Arabian Sea were discussed. The path of VSCS, 1999 (
The SST and chlorophyll-a distribution right and left side of VSCS, 1999 is shown in Figures 13 and 14.
From 3 degrees right to 8 degrees left from track of VSCS, 1999 showed low SST along whole path compared to climatology. But high chlorophyll was observed from 1 degree right to 8 degrees left. The chlorophyll-a distribution in 2 degrees right and 3 degrees right from storm track was within the standard deviation (
Similar observation was observed in case of CS, 2002 also. From 1degree right to 7 degrees left from track of CS, 2002 showed lower SST along whole path compared to climatology. From 2 degrees right onward the SST variation was within the standard deviation. Maximum 150% increased chlorophyll was observed in two degree left from storm track of CS, 2002.
Analysis of 100 years data showed that there was increasing trend of cyclonic disturbances in AS whereas there was a decreasing trend in the BOB in last decade (1998-2007).
Cyclonic disturbances caused an enhanced phytoplankton biomass in the open ocean of upper stratified water column in the BOB and the AS.
Higher cyclonic wind speed caused high phytoplankton biomass in the North Indian Ocean [
high wind speed was not sufficient reason for increased phytoplankton biomass, duration of high wind speed and path covered by the cyclonic wind also control the increased productivity pattern. For example the chlorophyll and SST variation were within the standard deviation of 10 years climatology in May 2001 in the Arabian Sea. The most probable reason was that in May 2001 cyclone wind speed increased from low pressure to very severe cyclone within 1 day and cover only 110 km path. Signal of the effect of cyclonic disturbances was observed in November 2003, whereas in October 1998 and October 2001 the distribution of chlorophyll-a and SST were within standard deviation in the BOB. The cyclonic wind continued only 110 km and 165 km path in October 1998 and October 2001 whereas cyclonic and severe cyclonic wind persisted 614 km paths in 2003.
The cyclonic wind effects both chlorophyll and sea surface temperature distribution in both Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal in daily scale [9,10,12,14]. But the decrease of SST and corresponding increased productivity pattern in both BOB and AS would be significant in climate change contest, if the daily changes in physical property would reflect in monthly chlorophyll-a and sea surface temperature distribution.
In 2000 there were no cyclonic disturbances in the pre-monsoon and post-monsoon season. It was observed that May SST 2000 was colder compared to May SST of different years. In 2007 though in May there were no cyclonic disturbances, but there was a severe cyclonic storm Gonu during 1-7 June 2007 [
storm Yemyin during 25-26 June 2007 [
The effect of VSCS in May 1999, CS in May 2002, SCS in May 2004 and VSCS in May 2001 in the premonsoon season in the AS was discussed. Among the four cyclonic disturbances in three cases of 1999, 2002 and 2004 the effect of cyclonic disturbances were observed in monthly image of SST and chlorophyll-a. But the effect was not seen in May 2001. In May month of 1999, 2002, 2004 the maximum decrease of SST was observed in monthly scale respectively 1.75˚C, 1.5˚C, and 1.5˚C whereas the increased of chlorophyll-a was approximately 150%, 66% and 66% along the storm track in the AS. The chlorophyll-a distribution also showed high chlorophyll-a distribution in the left side compared to right side.
The effect of VSCS in May 2003, CS May 2007, SCS in May 1998, VSCS May 2004, and VSCS in April 2006 in the pre-monsoon season in the BOB was discussed. Among five cyclonic disturbances only in 2003 and 2007 the effect of cyclonic disturbances was observed in monthly scale. In rest of the cases the variation of SST and chlorophyll was within the standard deviation of 10 years climatology. The maximum cooling of SST in May 2003 was 1.5˚C, in May 2007 was 1.25˚C and maximum increase of chlorophyll-a was 66% in May 2003 and abnormally high 160% in 2007 along the storm track compared to climatology was observed.
In the post monsoon season the cyclonic disturbances were having short path length in the BOB compared to premonsoon season in the AS. The effect of SCS in November 2003, CS in October 1998, and CS in October 2001 was discussed. Signal of the effect of cyclonic disturbances was observed in November 2003, whereas in October 1998 and October 2001 the distribution of chlorophyll and SST were within standard deviation. The maximum decrease of SST was observed ~1˚C and maximum 100% increase was observed in November 2003 along the storm track.
The occurrences of cyclonic disturbances and intensity were more in the BOB in post monsoon season compared to other season. During 10 years period (1998-2007) there were four D, four DD, which did not intensified in to cyclonic storm. Rather than that there were seven CS, one SCS, four VSCS and one super cyclonic storm. Among all the disturbances, the effect of cyclonic disturbance was observed in super cyclone October 1999 and VSCS November 2007. In 1999 the maximum decrease of SST was observed 2˚C and increased phytoplankton biomass was 100% along the super cyclone track. In 2007 increased phytoplankton was 100% from climatology but SST variation does not show the effect in 2007. In rest of the cyclonic disturbances, the distribution of SST and chlorophyll was within the standard deviation of 10 years climatology.
The cause of the low SST and high productivity in the monthly scale was examined by daily scale analysis taking one example of cyclonic storm during May 2002. 12 to 7 days before there was high SST compared to climatology. Before 5 days the lowering of SST started and after 10 days of cyclonic storm lower SST compared to climatology was observed. Correspondingly high phytoplankton biomass was observed after 10 days of cyclonic storm. After cyclonic storm maximum 3˚C low SST and 240% increased phytoplankton biomass extended up to 10 days and contributed in monthly scale.
In order to understand how much area of the basin was affected by cyclonic disturbances, two examples of cyclonic disturbances in the Arabian Sea were discussed.
The path of VSCS, 1999 was latitude wise whereas the path of CS, 2002 was longitude wise. In both the cases lower SST and higher chlorophyll distribution in the left side compared to right side from the storm track was observed.
Frequent such disturbances in the pre-monsoon and post-monsoon season can result in a changing ecological structure of the open ocean on a decadal scale in the BOB and AS.
The authors would also like to thank two anonymous reviewers for their critical comments and useful suggestions, which helped to improve the manuscript and also to PoDAC and other sites used for the study.