TITLE:
Energy Geopolitics in Cyprus: A Comparative Analysis of Northern Cyprus and the Greek Cypriot Administration in Regional and Global Contexts
AUTHORS:
Sibel Elif Özdilek
KEYWORDS:
Cyprus, Energy Geopolitics, Eastern Mediterranean, Hydrocarbon Resources, Energy Security, Northern Cyprus, Southern Cyprus, Regional Actors
JOURNAL NAME:
Open Journal of Social Sciences,
Vol.14 No.9,
September
18,
2026
ABSTRACT: This study examines energy geopolitics in the Eastern Mediterranean by comparing the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) with the Greek Cypriot Administration (GCA). It asks how the region’s offshore natural gas discoveries have shifted the Cyprus issue beyond a primarily political and ethnic conflict, turning it into a multidimensional geopolitical and geo-economic dispute tied to regional and global energy security dynamics. The study argues that energy resources can support cooperation, but they can also generate conflict; much depends on the political and legal frameworks surrounding them. The authorities administering the southern part of Cyprus have drawn on the internationally recognized status of the Republic of Cyprus and its membership in the European Union to formalize energy diplomacy, reinforce Western-oriented foreign policy alignment, and attract investment from multinational energy companies. Northern Cyprus, by contrast, has an energy strategy that remains structurally dependent on Türkiye’s geopolitical doctrine in the Eastern Mediterranean. Because it has limited international recognition, the TRNC cannot access global energy markets independently. The study examines how global actors including the EU, the US, Russia, and China shape the region’s energy equation. It shows that energy resources deepen the island’s geopolitical fragmentation by reinforcing unequal patterns of international legitimacy and security dependence. Consequently, the study concludes that lasting stability in the Eastern Mediterranean depends on more than fair resource-sharing mechanisms. It also calls for an inclusive political settlement and a multilateral security framework capable of addressing the structural asymmetries between North and South Cyprus. The current evidence supports a potential contribution, not a claim that Cypriot gas will by itself substantially transform European energy security. Current evidence is particularly important here: the EIA reports that Cyprus’s fields remain under development, with production dependent on further investment and development decisions, while the Aphrodite development plan specifically envisages export through Egypt. The proposed EastMed route is technically substantial, about 1,900 km, and designed for up to 12 bcm/year, but that does not mean that the route is commercially assured. The study examines how offshore gas resources in the Eastern Mediterranean may contribute to regional and European energy diversification while also generating geopolitical competition. It argues that the strategic significance of Cypriot gas depends not only on estimated resource volumes but also on the commercial development of fields, export infrastructure, transportation costs, and the feasibility of proposed routes to international markets.