TITLE:
Analysis of Precipitation Trends and Prediction in Selected Cities in the Southeast Louisiana
AUTHORS:
Yaw A. Twumasi, John B. Namwamba, Zhu H. Ning, Edmund C. Merem, Priscilla M. Loh, Abena B. Asare-Ansah, Jacob B. Annan, Ronald Okwemba, Harriet B. Yeboah, Caroline Y. Apraku, Janeth Mjema, Rechael N. D. Armah, Matilda Anokye, Lucinda A. Kangwana, Judith Oppong, Julia Atayi, Cynthia C. Ogbu, Opeyemi I. Oladigbolu, Diana B. Frimpong, Joyce McClendon-Peralta
KEYWORDS:
Precipitation, Linear and Polynomial Regression, Extrapolating Models, Southeastern Louisiana
JOURNAL NAME:
Atmospheric and Climate Sciences,
Vol.12 No.4,
October
31,
2022
ABSTRACT: The impacts of climate change
are being felt in Louisiana, in the form of changing
weather patterns that have resulted in changes in floods, hurricanes, tornadoes
frequencies of occurrence, and magnitudes, among others resulting in, flooding.
The variabilities in rainfall in a drainage basin affect water availability and
sustainability. This study analyzed the precipitation data of Southeastern
Louisiana, United States, for the period 1990 to 2020. Data used in the study was from, Donaldsonville, Galliano,
Lafourche, Gonzales, Ascension, Morgan, New Orleans, Audubon, Plaquemine, and
Ponchatoula, Tangipahoa, weather stations. These stations were selected
because the differences between each of their highest and lowest average annual
rainfall data were greater than 20 inches. To investigate climate patterns and trends for
the given weather stations in Southeastern Louisiana, precipitation data were
analyzed on annual time scales using data collected from the World Bank Group Climate
Change Knowledge Portal for Development Practitioners and Policy Makers and the
Applied Climate Information System (ACIS) of the National Weather Service Prediction Center. The data were further aggregated using annual average blocks of 4
years, and linear and polynomial regression was performed to establish trends. The highest and lowest average annual rainfall
data for Donaldsonville, Galliano, Lafourche, Gonzales, Ascension, Morgan, New
Orleans, Audubon, Plaquemine, and Ponchatoula,
Tangipahoa, weather stations were, 75 and 48, 71 and 44, 73.5 and 52.7, 75 and
46.4, 72 and 41.3, 94 and 55.3, Ponchatoula, and 78.6 and 44, respectively.
Plaquemine recorded the highest average annual average rainfall while New
Orleans, Audubon station recorded the lowest. The projection of the precipitation
in 2030 has been carried out to inform
scientists and stakeholders about the approximate quantity of rainfall
expected and enable them to make their expected impacts on
agriculture, economy, etc. The precipitation for 2030 was predicted by
extrapolating models for the weather stations. The data used for the modeling
was selected based on the data entries most representative. Hence, the
coefficient of correlation and the number of data entries were both considered.
Extrapolating results for 2030 precipitation in Donaldsonville,
Galliano, Gonzales, Morgan, New Orleans,
Audubon, and Plaquemine were found to be within the ranges, (85.6 - 86.7), (75.55 - 76.60), (89.7 - 90.67),
(99.9 - 100.5), (71.68 - 72.66), and (107.7 - 108.8)
inches, respectively. Hence, the average annual precipitations in areas covered by these stations except
for Plaquemine station are expected to significantly
increase. A restively low increase in average precipitation is
expected for Plaquemine station. The
increase could impact agriculture negatively or positively
depending on the crop’s soil moisture tolerance.