TITLE:
Prediction of Potential Sorghum Suitability Distribution in China Based on Maxent Model
AUTHORS:
Kai Niu, Liangjun Zhao, Yun Zhang, Ze Wang, Ze Wang, Hao Yang
KEYWORDS:
Sorghum, Potential Fitness Zone, Prediction, MaxEnt Model
JOURNAL NAME:
American Journal of Plant Sciences,
Vol.13 No.6,
June
29,
2022
ABSTRACT: It is increasingly relevant to study the effects of
climate change on species habitats. Using a maximum entropy model, 22
environmental factors with significant effects on sorghum habitat distribution
in China were selected to predict the potential habitat distribution of sorghum
in China. The potential distribution of sorghum under baseline climate
conditions and future climate conditions (2050s and 2070s) under two climate
change scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, were simulated, and the receiver operating
curve under the accuracy of the model was evaluated using the area under the
receiver operating curve (AUC). The results
showed that the maximum entropy model predicted the potential sorghum habitat
distribution with high accuracy, with Bio2 (monthly mean diurnal
temperature difference), Bio6 (minimum temperature in the coldest month), and
Bio13 (rainfall in the wettest month) as the main climatic factors affecting
sorghum distribution among the 22 environmental factors. Under the baseline
climate conditions, potential sorghum habitats are mainly distributed in the southwest, central, and east China. Over time,
the potential sorghum habitat expanded into northern and southern China, with significant additions and negligible decreases
in potential sorghum habitat in the study area, and a significant increase in
total area, with the RCP8.5 scenario adding much more area than the
RCP4.5 scenario.