TITLE:
Current Networks of Long Proxies for Building Reconstruction Models of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation
AUTHORS:
Markus Lindholm, Risto Jalkanen, Maxim G. Ogurtsov
KEYWORDS:
Proxies, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, Tree Growth, Climate Change, Transfer Models
JOURNAL NAME:
Atmospheric and Climate Sciences,
Vol.6 No.3,
May
23,
2016
ABSTRACT: Currently
available proxies were studied as networks for building reconstruction models of
the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). Only proxies that would double the
current record length (backwards in time from AD 1564) were included. We present
two proxy networks and corresponding reconstruction (transfer) models, one for tree-growth
based proxies only and another for multiproxies. Both of them show a useful match
in timing as well as amplitude with the AMO. These model structures demonstrated
reasonable model performance (overall r2 = 0.45 - 0.36). The time stability
of proxy-AMO relationships was also validated. The new models produced acceptable
results in cross-calibration-verification (reduction of error and coefficient of
efficiency statistics in 1856-1921 and 1922-1990 vary between 0.41 and 0.21). The
spatial distribution of these data series indicate that proxies respond to an AMO-like
climatic oscillation over much of the Northern Hemisphere.