TITLE:
Societal Costs of Diabetes Mellitus 2025 and 2040—Forecasts Based on Real World Cost Evidence and Observed Epidemiological Trends in Denmark
AUTHORS:
Camilla Sortsø, Martha Emneus, Anders Green, Peter Bjødstrup Jensen, Thomas Eriksson
KEYWORDS:
Forecasts, Cost of Illness, Diabetes Mellitus, Health Care Costs, Register Research, Societal Costs
JOURNAL NAME:
Modern Economy,
Vol.6 No.10,
October
30,
2015
ABSTRACT: Aim: The objective is to
contribute with real world evidenced economic forecasts of diabetes attributable
costs in 2025 and 2040 differentiated according to patients’ morbidity status
which is a novel approach within forecasting. Methods: Method of forecasting is
based on an annual calendar year prediction of diabetes attributable costs by using
the BOX-model, an established and tested epidemiological transition-state
model. The study population includes all Danish diabetes patients presented in
2011 (N = 318,729) according to the
Danish National Diabetes Register. Forecasting is based on individual patient
data from 2000 to 2011 for incidence, mortality, patterns of morbidity and
complication rates combined with demographic population projections from
Statistics Denmark. The 2011 estimation of diabetes attributable costs were
applied to the epidemiological framework. Forecasting was performed for three
different epidemiological scenarios. Results: Our three epidemiological
scenarios indicate that within the shorter time span increases in the prevalent
population are difficult to change primarily due to the already achieved
historic improvements in diabetes mortality and morbidity. These will
approximately double societal costs of diabetes in the next 10 years assuming current
trends in morbidity and mortality are maintained. The resulting diabetes
population will incur three times current costs in 2040. A 20% reduction in
cost per PYRS shows how the relative distribution of patients with
complications is expected to change over time with patients living better with
their disease and hence incur a lower demand for health and nursing care
services.