Goulielmos, A.M. (2018) Time and Equilibrium: Two Important, But Invisible, Concepts of Economics, with Application to Shipping Industry. Modern Economy, 9, 536-561.

has been cited by the following article:

• TITLE: Forecasting the Next Dry Cargo Shipping Depression beyond 2018

  AUTHORS: Alexandros M. Goulielmos

  KEYWORDS: 1929-1937, 1981-1987 and 2008-2016 Shipping Depressions, Zannetos Paradox, Forecasting Shipping Depressions, V-Statistic, Hurst Exponent, Alpha Coefficient, Rescaled Range Analysis, Radial Basis Functions

  JOURNAL NAME: Modern Economy, Vol.10 No.7, July 12, 2019

  ABSTRACT: The purpose of this research was to forecast next maritime depression beyond 2018. For this we used the nonlinear forecasting method: “Radial Basis Functions” [1] through the computer program NLTSA [2] allowing a prediction for 20 steps ahead. Forecasting applied to a freight rate dry cargo index since 1741 [3] and to alpha1 coefficient. The lowest alpha predicted was 1.01 in 2038. Stopford’s dry cargo index forecast will be at its lowest point, of 114 (100 = 1947) units, in 2034 and 2035. Three cycles forecast to last 5, 5, and 4 years (2019-2038). Thus shipping has to learn to live with cycles… and depressions, but perhaps it is better if knowing them in advance.