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Spiegelhalter, D.J., Best, N.G., Carlin, B.P. and Van der Linde, A. (2002) Bayesian Measures of Model Complexity and Fit (with Discussion and Rejoinder). Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, 64, 583-639.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1467-9868.00353

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