TITLE:
How to Predict Earthquakes with Microsequences and Reversed Phase Repetitive Patterns
AUTHORS:
Giulio Riga, Paolo Balocchi
KEYWORDS:
Microsequences, Foreshocks, Pattern, Triggers, Earthquake, Mainshock
JOURNAL NAME:
Open Journal of Earthquake Research,
Vol.5 No.3,
July
9,
2016
ABSTRACT: A strong earthquake is always preceded by groupings of shocks whose identification and understanding
constitute a sound method for improving short-term earthquake forecasts. Thanks to a
graphical method, we have identified and classified some microsequences and reversed phase repetitive
patterns that precede the hazardous events. The seismic microsequences include a series
of information useful to know in advance the beginning of energy release and accumulation phases
that usually precede and follow a moderate-to-high magnitude earthquake. Their identification
and correct interpretation allow us to determine various warning signals. In particular, through
the analysis of their shape and position in the seismic sequence we can claim that the strongest
earthquakes occur shortly after the formation of some peculiar micro-sequences. The checks carried
out on large data sets related to earthquakes occurred in the past have shown that the analysis
procedures developed do not depend on the size of the area analyzed while predicting a high
percentage of moderate-to-high magnitude earthquakes.