TITLE:
Estimating the Frequency, Magnitude and Recurrence of Extreme Earthquakes in Gulf of Aqaba, Northern Red Sea
AUTHORS:
Ali Hassan Baaqeel, Said Ali El- Quliti, Yahya Ali Daghreri, Sultan Abdullah Bin Hajlaa, Hadi Hussain Al- Yami
KEYWORDS:
Earthquakes, Gulf of Aqaba, Northern Red Sea, Magnitude, Recurrence
JOURNAL NAME:
Open Journal of Earthquake Research,
Vol.5 No.2,
May
31,
2016
ABSTRACT: Humans coexist with extreme events all the time, only when the intensity of the event becomes
greater than a certain level there is a resulting disaster. Small earthquakes occur all of the time
with no adverse effects. Only large earthquakes cause disasters. Statistical analysis reveals that
larger events occur less frequently than small events. In a year, we would have many values for the
events; the annual maximum was the greatest of those values. Within an annual series, only the
largest value per year is allowed, even if an additional significant peak occurs. As the magnitude of
a hazardous increases, the frequency of occurrence (how often a given magnitude is equaled or
exceeded) decreases. Thus, major disasters result from a small number of large events that rarely
occur. A plot of recurrence intervals versus associated magnitudes produces a group of points that
also approximates a straight line on semi-logarithmic paper. Therefore, past records of earthquakes
at the Gulf of Aqaba, Northern Red Sea for months from May, 1999 to Feb, 2016 are used to
predict future conditions concerning the annual frequency, the return period, the percentage
probability for each event, and the probability of a certain-magnitude earthquake occurring in the
region during any period.