TITLE:
Research on the Forecast and Development of China’s Public Fiscal Revenue Based on ARIMA Model
AUTHORS:
Qingjie Liu, Huachun Wang
KEYWORDS:
Public Finance Revenue, Finance Budget, ARIMA Model
JOURNAL NAME:
Theoretical Economics Letters,
Vol.5 No.4,
August
5,
2015
ABSTRACT: To promote the preparation of the financial budget of more scientific and
reasonable, this study adopts the revenue and expenditure data from 1950 to 2013,
and applying Johansen cointegration test, error correction model and Granger
causality test of causation financial statements between income and expenditure.
The result is that there exists long-run equilibrium relationship between
spending and revenue caused by this principle by using the moving average
difference sequence auto regression model and the least-squares regression
fitting equation. The choice of revenue analysis and forecasting finds the
optimal model and provides more accurate prediction effects for the budget
constraints of the prospective shift from preparation to establish multi-year
balanced budget to provide reference, and future revenue growth slowed
projections indicate an active role in the
conclusion of the people's livelihood-oriented public finances construction being
taking place.