TITLE:
Precipitation Extremes Analysis over the Brazilian Northeast via Logistic Regression
AUTHORS:
Washington Luiz Félix Correia Filho, Paulo Sérgio Lucio, Maria Helena Constantino Spyrides
KEYWORDS:
Odds Ratio; ROC Curve; Outgoing Longwave Radiation; Semiarid Region
JOURNAL NAME:
Atmospheric and Climate Sciences,
Vol.4 No.1,
December
20,
2013
ABSTRACT:
This work
diagnosed the precipitation extremes over the Brazilian Northeast (NEB) based
on logistic regression for obtaining associations between precipitation extremes and the meteorological
variables by Odd Ratio (OR). Data of
ten meteorological variables to the NEB (North (NNEB), East (ENEB), South
(SNEB) and Semiarid (SANEB)) were used daily. The OR results evidenced
that the outgoing longwave radiation was the key variable on the precipitation
extremes detection in three sub-regions: ENEB with 2.91 times (95% confidence
interval (CI): 2.11, 4.02), NNEB with 3.63 times (95% CI: 1.93, 6.83), and
SANEB with 5.40 times (95% CI: 3.04, 9.61); while on SNEB, it was relative humidity with 3.88 times (95% CI: 2.89, 5.20) more
chance to favor the precipitation extremes. The maximum temperature, zonal wind
component, evaporation, specific humidity and RH also had influence on these extremes. Goodness-of-fit
and ROC analysis demonstrated that all models had a good fit and good
predictive capability.