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Abstract: |
In order to reflect China’s financial crisis by level, this paper designed pressure indices for currency crisis, currency & stock market crisis, currency & stock market & bank crisis, respectively. Then the paper constructed leading indicator systems for these crisis pressure indices and used the methods of Granger causality test and univariate regression equation to filter those leading indicators. Our conclusions show that the common factors affecting three crisis pressure indices significantly are RMB exchange rate deviation from its trend, money supply growth, stock price changes, real interest rate of deposits, the ratio of loans verse deposits and changes in domestic inflation rate. The conclusions also point out that currency crises pressure index was more sensitive to the global economic situation, while currency & stock market crisis pressure index was easily affected by external market impact and currency & stock market & bank crisis pressure index was more vulnerable to balance of payments. Therefore, under the condition of economic globalization currently, the financial supervisory authorities should closely monitor domestic and international economic and financial anomalies, and take different measures to resolve various financial risks.
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