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Title: |
The SIR Epidemic Model-Based Analysis on the Group Behavior under the Situation of Unconventional Emergency |
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Source: |
Proceedings of the International Symposium on Emergency Management （ISEM 2010 E-BOOK）
(pp 375-379)
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Author(s): |
Lian She, Center for Early Warning Management Research, HuaZhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China
Zhaolei She, Center for Early Warning Management Research, HuaZhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China
Shuizhen Guo, Center for Early Warning Management Research, HuaZhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China |
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Abstract: |
The group behavior which based on the unconventional emergency should go through a process from embryo, development, large-scale outbreaks to decay basically, making it very similar to the process of the epidemic disease. The group behavior has the characteristics of imitativeness, purposelessness, spontaneity, disorganization and vulnerability. This paper is based on the SIR epidemic model, aiming to establish the mathematical model of the group behavior under the situation of the unconventional emergency, which shows that transmission rate and immunization rate of harmful information are the basic conditions for the formation of group behavior. The basic measures which should be taken to deal with group behavior are the following: timely disclosing the facts to reduce transmission rate; improving the immunization rate and cure rate through crisis education; and improving pre-immunization capability of the group.
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