Power and Energy Engineering Conference (PEEC 2010 E-BOOK)

Wuhan,China,9.11-9.13,2010

ISBN: 978-1-935068-17-4 Scientific Research Publishing, USA

E-Book 846pp Pub. Date: October 2010

Category: Engineering

Price: $80

Title: A Method to Forecast Recent Spatial Electric Load Based on Cloud Theory and AHP
Source: Power and Energy Engineering Conference (PEEC 2010 E-BOOK) (pp 562-566)
Author(s): Jie-Chao Zhang, School of Electric and Electronic Engineering, NCEPU, Beijing , China
Jia-Jia Zhang, Sinopec Engineering Incorporation, Beijing , China
Ya-Xin Chen, Tianjin High Voltage Power Supply Company, Tianjin, China
Abstract: Introduce "saturation" to denote the developed degree of the electric load of recent years. Make use of cloud theory to translate the qualitative factors which influence the load saturation into quantitative values. In the meantime, adopt the theory of AHP to determine the weigh of those influencing factors. Then uses the theory of cloud gravity center to calculate the deviation of each predicted cloud gravity center from the saturated cloud gravity center, and thus we can deduce the load saturation of the electric load of recent years. At last the spatial load of the year which we want to forecast can be figured out by multiplying the load saturation by the saturated spatial load. From the actual project, it shows this model and method is reasonable and feasible.
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