|
[1]
|
M. Florio, U. Finzi, M. Genco, F. Levarlet, S. Maffii, A. Tracogna and S. Vignetti, “Guide to Cost-Benefit Analysis of Investment Projects: Structural Funds-ERDF, Cohesion Fund and ISPA,” 3rd Edition, DG Regional Policy, European Commission, Brussels, 2002.
|
|
[2]
|
W. J. H. van Groenendaal and J. P. C. Kleijnen, “On the Assessment of Economic Risk: Factorial Design Versus Monte Carlo Methods,” Journal of Reliability Engineering and Systems Safety, Vol. 57, No. 1, 1997, pp. 91-102. DOI:10.1016/S0951-8320(97)00019-7
|
|
[3]
|
Environmental Assessment Institute, “Risk and Uncertainty in Cost Benefit Analysis,” Toolbox Paper, Institut for Milj?vurdering, Copenhagen, 2006.
|
|
[4]
|
E. A. Parson, V. R. Burkett, K. Fisher-Vanden, D. Keith, L. O. Mearns, H. M. Pitcher, C. E. Rosenzweig and M. D. Webster, “Global-Change Scenarios: Their Development and Use,” Sub-Report, United States Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research, 2007.
|
|
[5]
|
R. Lempert, “Can Scenarios Help Policymakers Be Both Bold and Careful?” In: F. Fukuyama, Ed., Blindside: How to Anticipate Forcing Events and Wild Cards in Global Politics, Brookings Institution Press, Washington DC, 2007.
|
|
[6]
|
I. M. D. Little and J. A. Mirrlees, “Risk Uncertainty and Profit,” Project Appraisal and Planning for Developing Countries, Heinemann, London, 1994.
|
|
[7]
|
S. Devarajan, L. Squire and S. Suthirwart-Narueput, “Reviving Project Appraisal at the World Bank, Policy Research Working Paper No. 1496,” Public Economics Division, Policy Research Department, World Bank, Washington DC, 1995.
|
|
[8]
|
J. P. Gittinger, “Economic Analysis of Agricultural Projects,” 2nd Edition, The Johns Hopkins University Press, Baltimore, Maryland, 1982.
|
|
[9]
|
Overseas Development Administration, “A Guide to Road Project Appraisal,” Overseas Road Note No. 5, London, 1988.
|
|
[10]
|
D. G. Davies, (Ed.), “The Economic Evaluation of Projects,” Papers from a Curriculum Development Workshop, World Bank, Washington DC, 1996.
|
|
[11]
|
C. Kirkpatrick, “The Rise and Fall of Cost Benefit Analysis: The Role of Project Appraisal in Managing Development Projects,” In: F. Analoui, Ed., The Realities of Managing Development Projects, Avebury, Aldershot, 1994.
|
|
[12]
|
J. Weiss, “Project Failure: The Implications of a 25 Percent Rule,” In: C. Kirkpatrick and J. WEISS, Cost-Benefit Analysis and Project Appraisal in Developing Countries, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, 1996.
|
|
[13]
|
R. Fao and M. Howard, “Use of Monte Carlo Simulation for the Public Sector: An Evidence-Based Approach to Scenario Planning, the Market Research Society,” International Journal of Market Research, Vol. 48, No. 1, 2006, pp. 27-48.
|
|
[14]
|
Y. H. Kwak and L. Ingall, “Exploring Monte Carlo Simulation Applications for Project Management,” Risk Management, Vol. 9, 2007, pp. 44-57. doi:10.1057/palgrave.rm.8250017
|
|
[15]
|
K. Balcombe and L. Smith, “Refining the Use of Monte Carlo Techniques for Risk Analysis in Project Planning,” Journal of Development Studies, Vol. 36, No. 2, 1999, pp. 113-135. doi:10.1080/00220389908422623
|
|
[16]
|
F. H. Knight, “Risk, Uncertainty and Profit,” Houston Mifflin, Boston, 1921.
|
|
[17]
|
J. F. Weston, “The Profit Concept and Theory: A Restatement,” The Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 62, No. 6, 1954, pp. 152-170. doi:10.1086/257499
|
|
[18]
|
G. Stigler, “Frank Knight,” In: J. Eatwell, M. Milgate and P. Newman, Eds., The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, Stockton Press, New York, 1987.
|
|
[19]
|
M. Friedman, “Price Theory: A Provisional Text,” Aldine, Chicago, 1976.
|
|
[20]
|
S. F. le Roy and D. Singell, “Knight on Risk and Uncertainty,” The Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 95, No. 2, 1987, pp. 394-406. doi:10.1086/261461
|
|
[21]
|
A. Jaafari, “Management of Risks, Uncertainties and Opportunities on Projects: Time for a Fundamental Shift,” International Journal of Project Management, Vol. 19, No. 2, 2001, pp. 89-101. doi:10.1016/S0263-7863(99)00047-2
|
|
[22]
|
N. Piyatrapoomi, A. Kumar and S. Setunge, “Framework for Investment Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty for Infrastructure Asset Management,” Research in Transportation Economics, Vol. 8, No. 1, 2004, pp. 199- 214. doi:10.1016/S0739-8859(04)08010-2
|
|
[23]
|
D. Vose, “Risk Analysis—A Quantitative Guide,” 2nd Edition, John Wiley & Sons Ltd., Chichester, 2000.
|
|
[24]
|
H. van Greuning and S. Brajovic-Bratanovic, “Banking Risk Analysis and Management,” Irecson Publishing House, Bucharest, 2003. DOI:10.1596/0-8213-5418-3
|
|
[25]
|
S. Savvides, “Risk Analysis in Investment Appraisal,” Project Appraisal, Vol. 9, No. 1, 1994, pp. 1-30.
|
|
[26]
|
C. B. Chapman and S. C. Ward, “Project Risk Management: Processes, Techniques and Insights,” 2nd Edition, John Wiley & Sons, Chichester, 2003.
|
|
[27]
|
D. B. Hertz and H. Thomas, “Risk Analysis and Its Applications,” John Wiley, Chichester, 1983.
|
|
[28]
|
I. Dikmen, M. T. Birgonul, C. Anac, J. H. M. Tah and G. Aouad, “Learning from Risks: A Tool for Post-Project Risk Assessment,” Automation in Construction, Vol. 18, No. 1, 2008, pp. 42-50. doi:10.1016/j.autcon.2008.04.008
|
|
[29]
|
D. Vose, “Risk Analysis—A Quantitative Guide,” 3rd Edition, John Wiley & Sons Ltd., Chichester, 2008.
|
|
[30]
|
M. Florio, “Cost-Benefit Analysis and the Rates of Return of Development Projects: An International Comparison,” Centro Studi Luca d’Agliano Development Studies Working Papers No. 182, 2003.
|
|
[31]
|
B. Jafarizadeh and R. Khorshid-Doust, “A Method of Project Selection Based on Capital Asset Pricing Theories in a Framework of Mean-Semideviation Behaviour,” International Journal of Project Management, Vol. 26, No. 6, 2007, pp. 612-619.
|
|
[32]
|
A. Saltelli, et al., “Global Sensitivity Analysis: The Primer,” John Wiley & Sons Ltd., Chichester, 2004.
|
|
[33]
|
A. E. Boardman, D. H. Greenberg, A. R. Vining and D. L. Weimer, “Cost Benefit Analysis: Concepts and Practice,” 3rd Edition, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, 2006.
|
|
[34]
|
T. Merna and D. V. Storch, “Risk Management of Agricultural Investment in a Developing Country Utilising the CASPAR Program,” International Journal of Project Management, Vol. 18, No. 5, 2000, pp. 349-360. doi:10.1016/S0263-7863(99)00050-2
|
|
[35]
|
A. H. Russell, “Cash Flows in Networks,” Management Science, Vol. 16, No. 5, 1970, pp. 357-373. DOI:10.1287/MNSC.16.5.357
|
|
[36]
|
R. C. Grinold, “The Payment Scheduling Problem,” Naval Research Logistics Quarterly, Vol. 19, No. 1, 1972, pp. 123-136. doi:10.1002/nav.3800190110
|
|
[37]
|
S. E. Elmaghraby and W. S. Herroelen, “The Scheduling of Activities to Maximize the Net Present Value of Projects,” European Journal of Operational Research, Vol. 49, 1990, pp. 35-49. doi:10.1016/0377-2217(90)90118-U
|
|
[38]
|
R. Etgar, A. Shtub and L. J. Leblanc, “Scheduling Projects to Maximise Net Present Value—The Case of Time-Dependent, Contingent Cash Flows,” European Journal of Operational Research, Vol. 96, No. 1, 1995, pp. 90-96. doi:10.1016/0377-2217(95)00382-7
|
|
[39]
|
R. Graves, “Open and Closed: The Monte Carlo Model,” PM Network, Vol. 15, No. 12, 2001, pp. 37-41.
|
|
[40]
|
T. Williams, “The Contribution of Mathematical Modelling to the Practice of Project Management,” IMA Journal of Management Mathematics, Vol. 14, No. 1, 2003, pp. 3-30. doi:10.1093/imaman/14.1.3
|
|
[41]
|
W. C. Baum and S. M. Tolbert, “Investing in Development. Lessons of World Bank Experience,” Oxford University Press, Oxford, 1985.
|
|
[42]
|
G. Koop, D. Poirier and J. Tobias, “Bayesian Econometric Models,” Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2007.
|
|
[43]
|
T. Bedford and R. Cooke, “Probabilistic Risk Analysis: Foundations and Methods,” Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2001.
|
|
[44]
|
R. A. Brealey and S. C. Myers, “Principles of Corporate Finance,” 6th Edition, Irwin McGraw-Hill, Boston, 2000.
|
|
[45]
|
L. Trigeorgis, “Real Options: Managerial Flexibility and Strategy in Resource Allocation,” MIT Press, Cambridge, 1997.
|
|
[46]
|
P. N. Smith, S. Sorensen and W. R. Wickens, “Macroeconomic Sources of Equity Risk,” Discussion Papers 03/13, Department of Economics, University of York, York, 2003.
|
|
[47]
|
N. M. L. Barnes, “How to Allocate Risks in Construction Contracts,” International Journal of Project Management, Vol. 1, No. 1, 1983, pp. 24-28. doi:10.1016/0263-7863(83)90034-0
|
|
[48]
|
S. G. Kahn, “Partners in Risk,” Cost Incentive Development Contracts, ESA Bulletin, Vol. 26, 1981, pp. 48-53.
|
|
[49]
|
J. Lintner, “Valuation of Risky Assets and the Selection of Risky Investments in Stock Portfolios and Capital Budgets,” Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 47, No. 1, 1965, PP. 13-37.
|
|
[50]
|
W. F. Sharpe, “Capital Asset Prices: A Theory of Market Equilibrium under Conditions of Risk,” Journal of Finance, Vol. 19, No. 3, 1964, pp. 425-442. doi:10.2307/2977928
|
|
[51]
|
A. Huchzermeier and C. H. Loch, “Project Management under Risk: Using the Real Options Approach to Evaluate Flexibility in R & D,” Management Science, Vol. 47, No. 1, 2001, pp. 85-101. doi:10.1287/mnsc.47.1.85.10661
|
|
[52]
|
W. E. Walker, “Policy Analysis: A Systematic Approach to Supporting Policymaking in the Public Sector,” Journal of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis, Vol. 9, No. 1-3, 2000, pp. 11-27.
doi:10.1002/1099-1360(200001/05)9:1/3<11::AID-MCDA264>3.0.CO;2-3
|
|
[53]
|
P. W. F. van Notten, J. Rotmans, M. B. A. van Asselt and D. A. Rothman, “An Updated Scenario Typology,” Futures, Vol. 35, No. 5, 2003, pp. 423-443. doi:10.1016/S0016-3287(02)00090-3
|
|
[54]
|
R. Bradfield, G. Wright, G. Burt, G. Cairns and K. van der Heijden, “The Origins and Evolution of Scenario Techniques in Long Range Business Planning,” Futures, Vol. 37, 2006, pp. 795-812. doi:10.1016/j.futures.2005.01.003
|
|
[55]
|
P. Schwartz, “The Art of the Long View,” Doubleday/Currency, New York, 1991.
|
|
[56]
|
K. Van der Heijden, “Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation,” John Wiley and Sons, Chichester, 1996.
|
|
[57]
|
L. B?rjeson, M. H?jer, K. Dreborg, T. Ekvall and G. Finnveden, “Scenario Types and Techniques: Towards a User’s Guide,” Futures, Vol. 38, No. 7, 2006, pp. 723- 739.
|
|
[58]
|
P. Bishop, A. Hines and T. Collins, “The Current State of Scenario Development: An Overview of Techniques,” Foresight, Vol. 9, No. 1, 2007, pp. 5-25. doi:10.1108/14636680710727516
|
|
[59]
|
European Environment Agency, “Looking Back on Looking Forward: A Review of Evaluative Scenario Literature,” EEA Technical Report, No. 3, 2009.
|
|
[60]
|
G. Wright, M. J. Lawrence and F. Collopy, “The Role and Validity of Judgment in Forecasting,” International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 12, No. 1, 1996, pp. 1-8. doi:10.1016/0169-2070(96)00674-7
|
|
[61]
|
G. Rowe and G. Wright, “The Delphi Technique as a Forecasting Tool: Issues and Analysis,” International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 15, No. 3, 1999, pp. 53-375.
|
|
[62]
|
H. A. Linstone and M. Turoff, “The Delphi Method: Techniques and Applications,” Addison-Wesley, London, 1975.
|
|
[63]
|
A. Lock, “Integrating Group Judgments in Subjective Forecasts,” In: G. Wright and P. Ayton, Eds., Judgmental Forecasting, Wiley, Chichester, 1987.
|
|
[64]
|
F. J. Parenté and J. K. Anderson-Parenté, “Delphi Inquiry Systems,” In: G. Wright and P. Ayton, Eds., Judgmental Forecasting, Wiley, Chichester, 1987.
|
|
[65]
|
T. R. Stewart, “The Delphi Technique and Judgmental Forecasting,” Climatic Change, Vol. 11, 1987, pp. 97-113. doi:10.1007/BF00138797
|
|
[66]
|
G. Rowe, G. Wright and F. Bolger, “The Delphi Technique: A Re-Evaluation of Research and Theory,” Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 39, No. 3, 1991, pp. 235-251. doi:10.1016/0040-1625(91)90039-I
|
|
[67]
|
N. C. Dalkey and O. Helmer, “An Experimental Application of the Delphi Method to the Use of Experts,” Management Science, Vol. 9, No. 3, 1963, pp. 458-467. doi:10.1287/mnsc.9.3.458
|
|
[68]
|
W. C. Wedley, “New Uses of Delphi in Strategy Formulation,” Long Range Planning, Vol. 10, No. 6, 1977, p. 70. doi:10.1016/0024-6301(77)90011-5
|
|
[69]
|
F. J. Parenté, J. K. Anderson, P. Myers and T. O’Brien, “An Examination of Factors Contributing to Delphi Accuracy,” Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 3, No. 2, 1984, pp. 173-182. doi:10.1002/for.3980030205
|
|
[70]
|
G. Rowe and G. Wright, “The Impact of Task Characteristics on the Performance of Structured Group Forecasting Techniques,” International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 12, No. 1, 1996, pp. 73-89. doi:10.1016/0169-2070(95)00658-3
|
|
[71]
|
L. L. Leape, M. A. Freshour, D. Yntema and W. Hsiao, “Small Group Judgment Methods for Determining Resource Based Relative Values,” Medical Care, Vol. 30, No. 11, 1992, pp. NS28-NS39. doi:10.1097/00005650-199211001-00003
|
|
[72]
|
F. C. Miner, “A Comparative Analysis of Three Diverse Group Decision Making Approaches,” Academy of Management Journal, Vol. 22, No. 1, 1979, pp. 81-93. doi:10.2307/255480
|
|
[73]
|
C. S. Huang, Y. Lin and C. Lin, “Determination of Insurance Policy Using a Hybrid Model of AHP, Fuzzy Logic, and Delphi Technique: A Case Study,” WSEAS Transactions on Computers, Vol. 7, No. 6, 2008, pp. 660-669.
|
|
[74]
|
H. Sackman, “Delphi Critique,” Lexington Books, Lexington, 1975.
|
|
[75]
|
M. J. Bardecki, “Participants’ Response to the Delphi Method: An Attitudinal Perspective,” Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 25, 1984, pp. 281- 292. doi:10.1016/0040-1625(84)90006-4
|
|
[76]
|
J. O. Berger, “Statistical Decision Theory and Bayesian Analysis,” Springer, New York, 1985.
|
|
[77]
|
H. Bühlmann and A. Gisler, “A Course in Credibility Theory and Its Applications,” Springer, Berlin, 2005.
|
|
[78]
|
S. T. Rachev, J. Hsu, B. Bagasheva and F. Fabozzi, “Bayesian Methods in Finance,” Wiley, New York, 2008.
|
|
[79]
|
P. V. Shevchenko and M. V. Wüthrich, “The Structural Modelling of Operational Risk via Bayesian Inference: Combining Loss Data with Expert Opinions,” Journal of Operational Risk, Vol. 1, No. 3, 2006, pp. 3-26.
|
|
[80]
|
S. Trück and C. Truong, “Catastrophic Risks and Optimal Climate Change Adaptation Strategies at the Local Level,” Working Paper, Macquarie University, Sydney, Australia, 2009.
|
|
[81]
|
B. Clemson, Y. Tang, J. Pyne and R. Unal, “Efficient Methods for Sensitivity Analysis,” System Dynamics Review, Vol. 11, No. 1, 1995, pp. 31-49. doi:10.1002/sdr.4260110104
|
|
[82]
|
T. G. Eschenbach and R. J. Gimpel, “Stochastic Sensitivity Analysis,” The Engineering Economist, Vol. 35, No. 4, 1990, pp. 305-321. doi:10.1080/00137919008903024
|
|
[83]
|
D. M. Hamby, “A Review of Techniques for Parameter Sensitivity Analysis of Environmental Models,” Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, Vol. 32, No. 2, 1994, pp. 135-154. doi:10.1007/BF00547132
|
|
[84]
|
K. J. Lomas and H. Eppel, “Sensitivity Analysis Techniques for Building Thermal Simulation Programs,” Energy and Buildings, Vol. 19, 1992, pp. 21-44. doi:10.1016/0378-7788(92)90033-D
|
|
[85]
|
S. G. Tzafestas, N. Theodorou and A. Kanellakis, “Recent Advances in the Stability Analysis of Multidimensional Systems,” Information and Decision Technologies, Vol. 14, 1988, pp. 195-211
|
|
[86]
|
D. J. Pannell, “Sensitivity Analysis of Normative Economic Models: Theoretical Framework and Practical Strategies,” Agricultural Economics, Vol. 16, No. 2, 1997, pp. 139-152. DOI:10.1016/S0169-5150(96)01217-0
|
|
[87]
|
F. Canova, “Sensitivity Analysis and Model Evaluation in Simulated Dynamic General Equilibrium Economies,” International Economic Review, Vol. 36, No. 2, 1995, pp. 477-501. doi:10.2307/2527207
|
|
[88]
|
G. W. Harrison and H. D. Vinod, “The Sensitivity Analysis of Applied General Equilibrium Models: Completely Randomised Factorial Sampling Designs,” The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 74, No. 2, 1992, pp. 357-362. doi:10.2307/2109672
|
|
[89]
|
P. Javanovic, “Application of Sensitivity Analysis in Investment Project Evaluation under Uncertainty and Risk,” International Journal of Project Management, Vol. 17, No. 4, 1999, pp. 217-222. doi:10.1016/S0263-7863(98)00035-0
|
|
[90]
|
G. E. P. Box, W. G. Hunter and J. S. Hunter, “Statistics for Experimenters: An Introduction to Design, Data Analysis, and Model Building,” John Wiley & Sons, New York, 1978.
|
|
[91]
|
Z. M. Christopher, “Monte Carlo Simulation, Quantitative Applications in the Social Sciences,” Sage University Papers Series, No. 116, 1997.
|
|
[92]
|
L. Y. Pouliquen, “Risk Analysis in Project Appraisal,” Staff Occasional Paper, The World Bank, Washington DC, 1970.
|
|
[93]
|
M. Javid and P. Seneviratne, “Investment Risk Analysis in Airport Parking Facility Development,” Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, Vol. 126, No. 4, 2000, pp. 298-305. doi:10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9364(2000)126:4(298)
|
|
[94]
|
S. Button, “Project Duration Prediction Using a Monte Carlo Simulation of the Periodic Output of the Project Resources,” Monte Carlo Methods and Applications, Vol. 9, No. 3, 2003, pp. 217-225. DOI:10.1515/156939603322728987
|
|
[95]
|
W. Hurley, “On the Use of Martingales in Monte Carlo Approaches to Multiperiod Parameter Uncertainty in Capital Investment Risk Analysis,” The Engineering Eco- nomist, Vol. 43, No. 2, 1998. DOI:10.1080/00137919808903195
|
|
[96]
|
R. Clarke and A. Low, “Risk Analysis in Project Planning: A Simple Spreadsheet Application Using Monte- Carlo Techniques’,” Project Appraisal, Vol. 8, No. 3, 1993.
|
|
[97]
|
M. M. Akalu, “The Process of Investment Appraisal: The Experience of 10 Large British and Dutch Companies,” International Journal of Project Management, Vol. 21, No. 5, 2002, pp. 355-362. doi:10.1016/S0263-7863(02)00051-0
|
|
[98]
|
S. Reutlinger, “Techniques for Project Appraisal under Uncertainty,” World Bank Staff Occasional Papers No. 10, Johns Hopkins Press, Baltimore, 1970.
|
|
[99]
|
P. Belli, J. R. Anderson, J. A. Dixon and J. P. Tan, “Economic Analysis of Investment Operations: Analytical Tools and Practical Applications,” World Bank Institute Development Studies, Washington DC, 2001.
|
|
[100]
|
S. Szekeres, “Considering Uncertainty in Project Appraisal,” EDI, World Bank, Washington DC, 1986.
|
|
[101]
|
M. Dailami, I. Lipkovich and J. van Dyk, “INFRISK, a Computer Simulation Approach to Risk Management in Infrastructure Project Finance Transactions,” World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, the World Bank Economic Development Institute, Washington DC, 1999.
|
|
[102]
|
World Bank, “Risk & Uncertainty Analysis, Transport Economics,” Transport Note No. TRN-7, Policy and Poverty Thematic Group, 2005.
|
|
[103]
|
G. Pohl and D. Mihaljek, “Project Evaluation and Uncertainty in Practice: A Statistical Analysis of Rate-of-Return Divergences of 1015 World Bank Projects,” World Bank Economic Review, Vol. 6, No. 2, 1992, pp. 255-277. doi:10.1093/wber/6.2.255
|
|
[104]
|
Asian Development Bank, “Guidelines for the Economic Analysis of Guidelines for the Economic Analysis of Projects,” Economics and Development Resource Centre, On-Line Publication from ADB Homepage Site, 1999.
|
|
[105]
|
R. Baltussen, R. Hultubessy, D. Evans and C. Murray, “Uncertainty in Cost-Effectiveness Analyses: Probabilistic Uncertainty Analysis and Stochastic League Tables,” International Journal of Technology Assessment in Health Care, Vol. 18, No. 1, 2002, pp. 112-119.
|
|
[106]
|
M. Skitmore and S. Ng, “Analytical and Approximate Variance of Total Project Cost,” Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, Vol. 128, No. 5, 2002, pp. 456-460. doi:10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9364(2002)128:5(456)
|
|
[107]
|
P. Lorterapong and O. Moselhi, “Project-Network Analysis Using Fuzzy Sets Theory,” Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, Vol. 122, No. 4, 1996, pp. 308-318. doi:10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9364(1996)122:4(308)
|
|
[108]
|
J.-G. Cho and B.-J. Yum, “Functional Estimation of Activity Criticality Indices and Sensitivity Analysis of Expected Project Completion Time,” Journal of the Operational Research Society, Vol. 55, No. 8, 2004, pp. 850-859. doi:10.1057/palgrave.jors.2601739
|