[1]
|
U.S. Office of Homeland Security, “The National Strategy for Homeland Security,” 2002.
http://www.ncs.gov/library/policy_docs/nat_strat_hls.pdf
|
[2]
|
R. D. Luce and H. Raiffa, “Games and Decisions: Introduction and Critical Survey,” Dover Publications, New York, 1957.
|
[3]
|
J. von Neumann and O. Morgenstern, “Theory of Games and Economic Behavior,” 2nd Edition, Princeton University Press, Princeton, 1947.
|
[4]
|
L. J. Savage, “The Foundations of Statistics,” 2nd Revised Edition, Dover Publications, New York, 1972.
|
[5]
|
P. C. Fishburn, “Normative Theories of Decision Making under Risk and Uncertainty,” In: D. Bell, H. Raiffa and A. Tversky, Eds., Decision Making: Descriptive, Normative, and Prescriptive Interactions, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1988, pp. 78-98.
doi:10.1017/CBO9780511598951.006
|
[6]
|
D. Kahneman and A. Tversky, “Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decisions under Risk,” Econometrica, Vol. 47, No. 3. 1979, pp. 263-291. doi:10.2307/1914185
|
[7]
|
A. Tversky and D. Kahneman, “Advances in Prospect Theory: Cumulative Representation of Uncertainty,” Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Vol. 5, No. 4, 1992, pp. 297-323.
|
[8]
|
D. E. Bell, “Regret in Decision Making under Uncertainty,” Operations Research, Vol. 30, No. 5, 1982, pp. 961-981. doi:10.1287/opre.30.5.961
|
[9]
|
G. Loomes and R. Sugden, “Regret Theory: An Alternative Theory of Rational Choice under Uncertainty,” Economic Journal, Vol. 92, No. 368, 1982, pp. 805-824.
doi:10.2307/2232669
|
[10]
|
D. E. Bell, “Disappointment in Decision Making under Uncertainty,” Operations Research, Vol. 33, No. 1, 1985, pp. 1-27. doi:10.1287/opre.33.1.1
|
[11]
|
G. Loomes and R. Sugden, “Disappointment and Dynamic Consistency in Choice under Uncertainty,” Review of Economic Studies, Vol. 53, No. 2, 1986, pp. 271-282.
doi:10.2307/2297651
|
[12]
|
E. Dekel and B. L. Lipman, “How (Not) to Do Decision Theory,” Annual Review of Economics, Vol. 2, No. 1, 2010, pp. 257-282.
doi:10.1146/annurev.economics.102308.124328
|
[13]
|
G. Chichilnisky, “An Axiomatic Approach to Choice under Uncertainty with Catastrophic Risks,” Resource and Energy Economics, Vol. 22, No. 3, 2000, pp. 221-231. doi:10.2139/ssrn.1522307
|
[14]
|
G. G. Brown and L. A. Cox, Jr., “Making Terrorism Risk Analysis Less Harmful and More Useful: Another Try,” Risk Analysis, Vol. 31, No. 2, 2011, pp. 193-195.
doi:10.1111/j.1539-6924.2010.01563.x
|
[15]
|
P. K. Davis, R. D. Shaver and J. Beck, “Portfolio-Analysis Methods for Assessing Capability Options,” RAND, Santa Monica, 2008.
|
[16]
|
S. Savage, “The Flaw of Averages: Why We Underestimate Risk in the Face of Uncertainty,” John Wiley & Sons, Hoboken, 2009.
|
[17]
|
Y. Y. Haimes, “Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management,” 3rd Edition, John Wiley & Sons, Hoboken, 2009.
|
[18]
|
H. M. Markowitz, “Portfolio Selection: Efficient Diversification of Investments,” 2nd Edition, Blackwell, Cambridge, 1997.
|
[19]
|
Office of the Deputy under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition and Technology, Systems and Software Engineering. “Systems Engineering Guide for Systems of Systems,” Version 1.0, ODUSD(A&T)SSE, Washington, 2008.
|
[20]
|
D. H. Wagner, W. C. Mylander and T. J. Sanders, “Naval Operations Analysis,” 3rd Edition, Naval Institute Press, Annapolis, 1999.
|
[21]
|
A. Washburn and M. Kress, “Combat Modeling,” Springer, New York, 2009. doi:10.1007/978-1-4419-0790-5
|
[22]
|
2011 Naval Surface Warfare Center Crane Cohort, “System Engineering Approach to Improving Arizona Border Patrol C4ISR Mission Operations,” MSSE Capstone Project, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, 2011.
|
[23]
|
R. Hastie and R. M. Dawes, “Rational Choice in an Uncertain World: The Psychology of Judgment and Decision Making,” Sage Publications, Thousand Oaks, 2001.
|
[24]
|
A. Einstein, “Ideas and Opinions,” Bonanza Books, New York, 1954.
|
[25]
|
E. Malinvaud, “Note on von Neumann-Morgenstern’s Strong Independence Axiom,” Econometrica, Vol. 20, No. 4, 1952, p. 679. doi:10.2307/1907650
|
[26]
|
R. de Neuville, “Applied Systems Analysis: Engineering Planning and Technology Management,” McGraw-Hill, New York, 1999.
|
[27]
|
E. Kujawski, M. Alvaro and W. Edwards, “Incorporating Psychological Influences in Probabilistic Cost Analysis,” Systems Engineering, Vol. 7, No. 3, 2004, pp. 195-216.
doi:10.1002/sys.20004
|
[28]
|
S. H. Chew, “Axiomatic Utility Theories with the Betweenness Property,” Annals of Operations Research, Vol. 19, No. 1, 1989, pp. 273-298. doi:10.1007/BF02283525
|
[29]
|
M. Allais, “Le Comportement de l’Homme Rationnel devant le Risque: Critique des Postulats et Axiomes de l’Ecole Américaine,” Econometrica, Vol. 21, No. 4, 1953, pp. 503-546. doi:10.2307/1907921
|
[30]
|
P. Samuelson, “Risk and Uncertainty: A Fallacy of Large Numbers,” Scientia, Vol. 98, No. 4, 1963, pp. 108-113.
|
[31]
|
M. Rabin and R. H. Thaler, “Anomalies: Risk Aversion,” The Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 15, No. 1, 2001, pp. 219-232. doi:10.1257/jep.15.1.219
|
[32]
|
E. Dekel, “Asset Demands without the Independence Axiom,” Econometrica, Vol. 57, No.1, 1989, pp. 163-169.
doi:10.2307/1912577
|
[33]
|
R. J. Lempert, D. G. Groves, S. W. Popper and S. C. Bankes, “A General, Analytic Method for Generating Robust Strategies and Narrative Scenarios,” Management Science, Vol. 52, No. 4, 2006, pp. 51-528.
doi:10.1287/mnsc.1050.0472
|
[34]
|
P. Krokhmal, R. Murphey, P. Pardalos, S. Uryasev and G. Zrazhevsky, “Robust Decision Making: Addressing Uncertainties in Distributions,” In: S. Butenko, et al., Eds., Cooperative Control: Models, Applications and Algorithms, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, 2003, pp. 165-185.
|
[35]
|
D. G. Ullman, “Making Robust Decisions: Decision Management for Technical, Business, & Service,” Trafford Publishing, Victoria, 2006.
|
[36]
|
G. Friedman, “The Intransitivity of Pairwise Comparisons Even with a Single Rational Decision Maker or: Homomorphisms from Allegedly Paradoxical Dice to Decision-Making in the Military, Business and Sports World,” Presentation to the NSF Decision-Based Design Workshop, Long Beach, 1999.
http://dbd.eng.buffalo.edu/papers/friedman.html
|
[37]
|
P. Delquié and A. Cillo, “Disappointment without Prior Expectation: A Unifying Perspective on Decision under Risk,” Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Vol. 33, No. 3, pp. 197-215. doi:10.1007/s11166-006-0499-4
|
[38]
|
D. Nawrocki, “A Brief History of Downside Risk Measures,” Journal of Investing, Vol. 8, No. 3, 1999, pp. 9-25.
doi:10.3905/joi.1999.319365
|
[39]
|
E. Kujawski and G. A. Miller, “Quantitative Risk-Based Analysis for Military Counterterrorism Systems,” Systems Engineering, Vol. 10, No. 4, 2007, pp. 273-289.
doi:10.1002/sys.20075
|
[40]
|
D Bertsimas, D. B. Brown and C. Caramanis, “The Theory and Applications of Robust Optimization,” SIAM Review, Vol. 53, No. 3, 2011, pp. 464-501.
doi:10.1137/080734510
|
[41]
|
M. Levy, “Almost Stochastic Dominance and Efficient Investment Sets,” American Journal of Operations Research, Vol. 2, No. 3, 2012, pp. 313-321.
doi:10.4236/ajor.2012.23038
|
[42]
|
E. Kujawski, I. M. Jacobs and A. M. Smith, “An Evaluation of the Use of Signal Validation Techniques as a Defense against Common-Cause Failures,” Electric Power Research Institute, Palo Alto, 1987.
|
[43]
|
F. Glover, M. Laguna and R. Martí, “Scatter Search,” In: A. Ghosh and S. Tsutsui, Eds., Advances in Evolutionary Computation: Theory and Applications, Springer-Verlag, New York, 2003, pp. 519-537.
|
[44]
|
2008 Cohort from the Naval Surface Warfare Center Dahlgren Division and the Naval Undersea Warfare Center Division Newport, “Enhanced Vessel Awareness Capability,” MSSE Capstone Project, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, 2011.
|