Obesity trends in Russia. The impact on health and healthcare costs

Ketevan Rtveladze, Tim Marsh, Laura Webber, Fanny Kilpi, Yevgeniy Goryakin, Anna Kontsevaya, Antonina Starodubova, Klim McPherson, Martin Brown

Department of Internal Disease No. 2, Therapeutic Faculty, Russian State Medical University (RSMU), Moscow, Russia.
Department of Primary Prevention in Primary Care, National Research Center for Preventive Medicine, Moscow, Russia.
Department of Social Research, Population Research Unit, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland.
Modelling Department, Micro Health Simulations, London, UK.
New College, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK.

DOI: 10.4236/health.2012.412A212                

Abstract

Similar to most developed countries, obesity rates inRussiahave been steadily increasing. This has led to a high burden of obesity related diseases and associated healthcare costs. The micro-simulation model has been utilized to project body mass index (BMI) and BMI related disease burden and healthcare costs. Incidence, mortality, survival and healthcare costs were collected for thirteen diseases. The results have been simulated for 3 hypothetical scenarios to project a potential impact of policy interventions: 1) assuming no reduction in BMI; 2) 1% reduction in mean BMI across the population; 3) 5% reduction in mean BMI across the population. Nearly 58% of the female population was obese (BMI ≥30 kg/m2) or overweight (BMI 25 -29.9 kg/m2) in 2010, and the prevalence is projected to decrease to 54% in 2050. The rates are predicted to increase for men from 51% in 2010 to 76% in 2050. The prevalence rates will triple for some obesity-related diseases. A one percent decrease in BMI across the population will save more than two billion US Dollars in 2030 and 2050. Despite female obesity prevalence starting at a higher point than the men, obesity is predicted to increase in males but not females. Disease and economic burden attributed to these obesity rates are still severe and the country should implement strong policies to tackle the obesity epidemic.

Keywords

Obesity; Trends; Russia; Health; Healthcare; Costs

Conflicts of Interest

The authors declare no conflicts of interest.

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