Modelling Large Scale Invasion of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus Mosquitoes - Advances in Pure Mathematics

APM > Vol.8 No.3, March 2018

Advances in Pure Mathematics

Volume 8, Issue 3 (March 2018)

ISSN Print: 2160-0368 ISSN Online: 2160-0384

Google-based Impact Factor: 0.50 Citations h5-index & Ranking

Modelling Large Scale Invasion of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus Mosquitoes ()

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Download as PDF (Size: 3521KB) PP. 245-265

DOI: 10.4236/apm.2018.83013 1,329 Downloads 3,216 Views Citations

Author(s)

Wenkui He^1,2, Otto Richter¹

Affiliation(s)

¹Institute of Geoecology, Technical University of Braunschweig, Braunschweig, Germany.
²Dr. Knoell Consult GmbH, Mannheim, Germany.

ABSTRACT

The principle aim of this work is to simulate the invasion of two invasive mosquito species Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus in central Europe at a landscape scale. The spatial-temporal dynamics of invasion is investigated in dependence of predation pressure, seasonal variation of ambient temperature as well as human population density. The introduction of temperature dependent entomological parameters enables the simulation of seasonal pattern of population dynamics. The influence of temperature, predation pressure and human population density on invasion is studied in one-dimensional cases. In two dimensions, georeferenced parameters such as annual mean temperature and human population density are prepared by a geographical information system and introduced into the finite element tool COMSOL Multiphysics. The results show that under the current temperature, central Europe cannot become a permanent breeding region for Aedes aegypti. However, southwest Germany especially the regions along the Upper Rhine Valley may provide suitable habitats for the permanent establishment of Aedes albopictus. An annual temperature rise of two degrees would lead to dramatic increase of invasion speed and extension range of Aedes albopictus.

KEYWORDS

Reaction-Diffusion Equations, Allee Effect, Range Expansion, Travelling Waves, Temperature Dependence

Share and Cite:

He, W. and Richter, O. (2018) Modelling Large Scale Invasion of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus Mosquitoes. Advances in Pure Mathematics, 8, 245-265. doi: 10.4236/apm.2018.83013.

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