Using Crop Management Scenario Simulations to Evaluate the Sensitivity of the Ohio Phosphorus Risk Index ()
ABSTRACT
Phosphorus (P) risk indices are commonly used in the
USA to estimate the field-scale risk of agricultural P runoff. Because the Ohio
P Risk Index is increasingly being used to judge farmer performance, it is
important to evaluate weighting/scoring of all P Index parameters to ensure
Ohio farmers are credited for practices that reduce P runoff risk and not
unduly penalized for things not demonstrably related to runoff risk. A
sensitivity analysis provides information as to how sensitive the P Index score
is to changes in inputs. The objectives were to determine 1) which inputs are
most highly associated with P Index scores and 2) the relative impact of each
input variable on resultant P Index scores. The current approach uses
simulations across 6134 Ohio point locations and five crop management scenarios
(CMSs), representing increasing soil disturbance. The CMSs range from all
no-till, which is being promoted in Ohio, rotational tillage, which is a common
practice in Ohio to full tillage to represent an extreme practice. Results
showed that P Index scores were best explained by soil test P (31.9%) followed
by connectivity to water (29.7%), soil erosion (13.4%), fertilizer application
amount (11.3%), runoff class (9.5%), fertilizer application method (2.2%), and
finally filter strip (2.0%). Ohio P Index simulations across CMSs one through
five showed that >40% scored <15 points (low) while <1.5% scored
>45 points (very high). Given Ohio water quality problems, the Ohio P Index
needs to be stricter. The current approach is useful for Ohio P Index
evaluations and revision decisions by spatially illustrating the impact of
potential changes regionally and state-wide.
Share and Cite:
Dayton, E. , Holloman, C. , Subburayalu, S. and Risser, M. (2017) Using Crop Management Scenario Simulations to Evaluate the Sensitivity of the Ohio Phosphorus Risk Index.
Journal of Environmental Protection,
8, 141-158. doi:
10.4236/jep.2017.82012.