Author(s)

Dalia M. Muñoz Pizza¹, Anibal Muñoz Loaiza¹, Oscar A. Manrique Arias¹, Vanessa Abello Sossa¹, Carlos A. Abello Muñoz¹, Steven Raigosa Osorio¹, Hans Meyer Contreras¹, John F. Arredondo Montoya¹, Gonzaga Ospina Patiño¹, Irma Pérez Contreras², Maria E. Cardenas Perea², Miguel A. Enríquez Guerra², Jesús A. Valdez García²

¹Grupo de Modelación Matemática en Epidemiología (GMME), Facultad de Educación, Universidad del Quindío, Quindío, Colombia.
²Facultad de Medicina, Benemérita Universidad Autónoma de Puebla, Puebla, México.

It is set and analyzed a simulation model based on non-linear ordinary differential equations to interpret the dynamics of the microcephaly incidence caused by the Zika virus in a risk group of pregnant women. This one is induced by a population of men in a reproductive age. Also, some parameters of the model were estimated for an average temperature of 23℃ and by using the adjusted functions from references [1] [2]. All system simulations were done with the Maple software and parameters values obtained from several sources (estimated, hypothetic, and form literature). It has been found that the application of contraceptive measures impacts the population of sexually active women. As result, the exposure to congenital abnormalities increases, particularly, microcephaly.

Model, Microcephaly, Zika Virus, Basic Reproduction Number, Risk Group, Incidence

Pizza, D. , Loaiza, A. , Arias, O. , Sossa, V. , Muñoz, C. , Osorio, S. , Contreras, H. , Montoya, J. , Patiño, G. , Contreras, I. , Perea, M. , Guerra, M. and García, J. (2016) A Simulation Model for the Risk of Fetal Exposure Originated by the Zika Virus (VIZK). Health, 8, 1178-1186. doi: 10.4236/health.2016.812121.