Author(s)

Shailaja Tetali¹, Guru Rajesh Jammy², Edwin Sam Asirvatham³, Bogam Ranjeeth Kumar⁴, Lincoln Priyadarshi Choudhury^5*

¹Public Health Foundation of India, Indian Institute of Public Health Plot No # 1, ANV Arcade, Amar Co-op Society, Hyderabad, India.
²Society for Health Allied Research and Education India (SHARE INDIA), MediCiti Institute of Medical Sciences Campus, Medchal Telangana, India.
³Health Systems Research India Initiative (HSRII), Thiruvananthapuram, Kerala, India.
⁴Karshapana Consultants Private Limited Sri Sai Emerald Apt, Saidabad, Hyderabad, India.
⁵Karshapana Consultants private Limited U-151, DLF Capital Greens, Motinagar, New Delhi, India.

Objectives: The objective of this study was to examine the impact of large scale non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: We used interrupted time series analysis (ITS), a quasi-experimental model to evaluate the effect of interventions in four states of India by comparing the COVID-19 positivity before lockdown, during lockdown and opening-up period. Results: The positivity in all the four states declined during lockdown and the trends reversed soon after the lockdown measures were relaxed as the states opened-up. The rate of reduction of positivity was significantly different between states. Between the lockdown and opening-up period, an increase in positivity was recorded in all the states with significant variation between states. Conclusion: The analysis provides conclusive evidence that the lockdown measures had a positive effect in reducing the burden of COVID-19 and establishes a causal relationship.

Causality, Interrupted Time Series, COVID-19, Impact Evaluation

Tetali, S. , Jammy, G. , Asirvatham, E. , Kumar, B. and Choudhury, L. (2021) An Interrupted Time Series Analysis of COVID-19 Positivity before, during and after Lockdown in Four States of India. Open Journal of Epidemiology, 11, 47-55. doi: 10.4236/ojepi.2021.111005.