ABSTRACT
There has been a moderate
increase in newly diagnosed HIV-infected Minna populace, which calls for
serious attention. This study used time series data based on monthly HIV
cases from January 2007 to December 2018 taken from the statistical data
document on HIV prevalence recorded in General Hospital Minna, Niger State. The methodology employed to analyze the data
is based on mathematical models of ARMA, ARIMA and
SARIMA which were computed and diagnosed. From the results of parameter estimation
of the models, ARMA(2, 1) model was the best
model among the other ARMA models using information criteria (AIC). Diagnostic
test was run on the ARMA(2, 1) model where the results show that the model was
adequate and normally distributed using Box-Lung test and Q-Q plot respectively. Furthermore, ARIMA of first and second differences
was estimated and ARIMA(1, 0, 1) was the best model
from the result of the AIC and diagnostic test carried out which revealed that
the model was adequate and normally distributed using Box-Lung and Q-Q plot
respectively. Furthermore, the results obtained in the ARMA and ARIMA models
were used to arrive at a combined model given as ARIMA(1, 0, 1) × SARIMA(1, 0, 1)12 which was subsequently estimated and found to
be adequate from the result of the Box-Lung and Q-Q plot respectively. Post
forecasting estimation and performance evolution were evaluated using the RMSE
and MAE. The results showed that, ARIMA(1, 0, 1) × SARIMA(1, 0, 1)12 is the best
forecasting model followed by ARIMA(1, 0, 2) on monthly HIV prevalence in
Minna, Niger state.
Share and Cite:
Umunna N.C. and Olanrewaju S.O. (2020) Forecasting the Monthly Reported Cases of Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) at Minna Niger State, Nigeria. Open Journal of Statistics, 10, 494-515. doi: 10.4236/ojs.2020.103030.