Author(s)

V. Kokorev^1,2, J. Ettema¹, P. Siegmund², G. van der Schrier²

¹Faculty of Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation, University of Twente, Enschede, The Netherlands.
²Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, The Netherlands.

Recent changes in precipitation regime in South-East Asia are a subject of ongoing discussion. In this article, for the first time, evidence of a precipitation regime shift during the mid-1970s in the Northern Hemispheric part of South-East Asia is demonstrated. The detection of regime shifts is made possible by using a new comprehensive dataset of daily precipitation records (South-East Asian Climate Assessment and Dataset) and applying a novel Bayesian approach for regime shift detection. After the detected regime shift event in the mid-1970s, significant changes in precipitation distribution occurred in the Northern Hemispheric regions—Indochina Peninsula and the Philippines. More specifically, dry days became up to 10% more frequent in some regions. However, no precipitation regime shift is detected in Southern Hemisphere regions—Java and Northern Australia, were the number of observed dry days increased gradually.

Regime Shift, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Precipitation, South-East Asia, Bayesian Methods

Kokorev, V. , Ettema, J. , Siegmund, P. and Schrier, G. (2020) Precipitation Regime Shift Associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation in the Maritime Continent. American Journal of Climate Change, 9, 123-135. doi: 10.4236/ajcc.2020.92009.