Detection of Approximate Potential Trend Turning Points in Temperature Time Series (1941-2010) for Asansol Weather Observation Station, West Bengal, India

Download Download as PDF (Size:802KB)  HTML    PP. 64-69  
DOI: 10.4236/acs.2014.41009    2,630 Downloads   4,192 Views   Citations


Researches are being carried out world-wide to understand the nature of temperature change during recent past at different geographical scales so that comprehensive inferences can be drawn about recent temperature trend and future climate. Detection of turning points in time series of meteorological parameters puts challenges to the researches. In this work, the temperature time series from 1941 to 2010 for Asansol observatory, West Bengal, India, has been considered to understand the nature, trends and change points in the data set using sequential version of Mann-Kendall test statistic. Literatures suggest that use of this test statistic is the most appropriate for detecting climatic abrupt changes as compared to other statistical tests in use. This method has been employed upon monthly average temperatures recorded over the said 70 years for detection of abrupt changes in the average temperature of each of the months. The approximate potential trend turning points have been calculated separately for each month (January to December). Sequential version of Mann-Kendall test statistic values for the months of July and August is significant at 95% confidence level (p < 0.05). The average temperature for most of the other months has shown an increasing trend but more significant rise in July and August temperature has been recognized since 1960s.

Cite this paper

S. Chatterjee, D. Bisai and A. Khan, "Detection of Approximate Potential Trend Turning Points in Temperature Time Series (1941-2010) for Asansol Weather Observation Station, West Bengal, India," Atmospheric and Climate Sciences, Vol. 4 No. 1, 2014, pp. 64-69. doi: 10.4236/acs.2014.41009.


[1] R. Sneyres, “On the statistical Analysis of Time Series of Observation,” Technical Note No. 143, World Meteorological Organisation, Geneva, 1990.
[2] S. Jain and U. Lall, “Magnitude and Timing of Annual Maximum Floods: Trends and Large Scale Climate Associations of the Blacksmith Rock River, Utha,” Water Resources Research, Vol. 36, No. 12, 2000, pp. 3641-3651.
[3] D. K. Karpouzos, S. Kavalieratou and C. Babajimopoulos, “Trend Analysis of Precipitation Data in Pieria Region (Greece),” European Water, Vol. 30, 2010, pp. 31-40.
[4] IPCC, “Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report,” In: R. K. Pachauri and A. Reisinger, Eds., Contribution of Working Group I, II. and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2007.
[5] L. L. Ren, W. Zhang, C. H. Li and M. R. Wang, “Impacts of Human Activity on River Runoff in the Northern Area of China,” Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 261, No. 1-4, 2002, pp. 204-217.
[6] W. Qian and X. Linx, “Regional Trends in Recent Precipitation Indices in China,” Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, Vol. 90, No. 3-4, 2005, pp. 193-207.
[7] X. L. Wang, “Comments on Detection of Undocumented Change Points: A Revision of the Two Phase Regression Model,” Journal of Climate, Vol. 16, No. 20, 2003, pp. 3383-3385.<3383:CODOUC>2.0.CO;2
[8] R. C. Balling, J. A. Skindlow and D. A. Philips, “The Impacts of Increasing Summer Mean Temperature on Extreme Maximum and Minimum Temperature in Phoenix, Arizona,” Journal of Climate Vol. 3, No. 12, 1990, pp. 1491-1494.<1491:TIOISM>2.0.CO;2
[9] D. R. Easterling, L. G. Evans, P. Y. Groisman, T. R. Karl K. E. Kunkel and P. Ambenze, “Observed Variability in Trends in Extreme Climate Events: A Brief Review,” Bulletin of American Meteorological Society, Vol. 81, No. 3, 2000, pp. 417-425.<0417: OVATIE>2.3.CO;2
[10] D. R. Easterling, B. Horton, P. D. Jones, T. C. Peterson, T. R. Karl, D. E. Parker, M. J. Salinger, V. Razuvayev, N. Plummer, P. Jamason and C. K. Folland, “Maximum and Minimum Temperature Trends For The Globe,” Science, Vol. 277, No. 5324, 1997, pp. 364-366. science.277.5324.364
[11] B. Safari, “Trend Analysis of Mean Annual Temperature in Rwanda during Last Fifty Two Years,” Journal of Environmental Protection, Vol. 3, No. 6, 2012, pp. 538-551. 4236/jep.2012.36065
[12] T. Mohsin and W. A. Gough, “Trend Analysis of Long-Term Temperature Time series in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA),” Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Vol. 98, 2009, pp. 3-4.

comments powered by Disqus

Copyright © 2017 by authors and Scientific Research Publishing Inc.

Creative Commons License

This work and the related PDF file are licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.