Expert Systems Modeling for Assessing Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation in Agricultural Systems at Regional Level

Victor Sposito, Robert Faggian, Harmen Romeijn, Mark Downey

Department of Agriculture and Food Systems, School of Land and Environment, University of Melbourne, Parkville, Australia.
Department of Infrastructure Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, University of Melbourne, Parkville, Australia.
Victorian Department of Environment and Primary Industries, Mildura, Australia.

DOI: 10.4236/ojapps.2013.36047                

Abstract

Australian agriculture is very susceptible to the adverse impacts of climate change, with major shifts in temperature and rainfall projected. In this context, this paper describes a research methodology for assessing potential climate change impacts on, and formulating adaptation options for, agriculture at regional level. The methodology was developed and applied in the analysis of climate change impacts on key horticultural commodities—pome fruits (apples and pears), stone fruits (peaches and nectarines) and wine grapes—in the Goulburn Broken catchment management region, State of Victoria, Australia. Core components of the methodology are mathematical models that enable to spatially represent the degree of biophysical land suitability for the growth of agricultural commodities in the region of interest given current and future climatic conditions. The methodology provides a sound analytic approach to 1) recognise regions under threat of declines in agricultural production due to unfolding climatic changes; 2) identify alternative agricultural systems better adapted to likely future climatic conditions and 3) investigate incremental and transformational adaptation actions to improve the problem situations that are being created by climate change.

Keywords

Climate Change; Expert Systems; Analytic Hierarchy Process; Land Suitability Analysis; Chilling; Adaptation Actions

Conflicts of Interest

The authors declare no conflicts of interest.

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