Detection and Projections of Climate Change in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Claudine Dereczynski, Wanderson Luiz Silva, Jose Marengo

Center for Earth System Science, National Institute for Space Research, Cachoeira Paulista, Brazil.
Department of Meteorology, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

DOI: 10.4236/ajcc.2013.21003                

Abstract

A study on the detection and future projection of climate change in the city of Rio de Janeiro is here presented, based on the analysis of indices of temperature and precipitation extremes. The aim of this study is to provide information on observed and projected extremes in support of studies on impacts and vulnerability assessments required for adaptation strategies to climate change. Observational data from INMET’s weather stations and projections from INPE’s Eta- HadCM3 regional model are used. The observational analyses indicate that rainfall amount associated with heavy rain events is increasing in recent years in the forest region of Rio de Janeiro. An increase in both the frequency of occurrence and in the rainfall amount associated with heavy precipitation are projected until the end of the 21st Century, as are longer dry periods and shorter wet seasons. In regards to temperature, a warming trend is noted (both in past observations and future projections), with higher maximum air temperature and extremes. The average change in annual maximum (minimum) air temperatures may range between 2℃and 5℃(2℃and 4℃) above the current weather values in the late 21st Century. The warm (cold) days and nights are becoming more (less) frequent each year, and for the future climate (2100) it has been projected that about 40% to 70% of the days and 55% to 85% of the nights will be hot. Additionally, it can be foreseen that there will be no longer cold days and nights.

Keywords

Climate Change; Extreme Event Indices; Air Temperature; Precipitation; Eta-HadCM3 Model; Rio de Janeiro

Conflicts of Interest

The authors declare no conflicts of interest.

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