Comparison between Neural Network and Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System for Forecasting Chaotic Traffic Volumes

Jiin-Po Yeh^1*, Yu-Chen Chang²

¹Department of Civil and Ecological Engineering, I-Shou University, Kaohsiung.
²Institute of Civil Engineering Technology, National Kaohsiung University of Applied Sciences, Kaohsiung.

DOI: 10.4236/jilsa.2012.44025                

Abstract

This paper applies both the neural network and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system for forecasting short-term chaotic traffic volumes and compares the results. The architecture of the neural network consists of the input vector, one hidden layer and output layer. Bayesian regularization is employed to obtain the effective number of neurons in the hidden layer. The input variables and target of the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system are the same as those of the neural network. The data clustering technique is used to group data points so that the membership functions will be more tailored to the input data, which in turn greatly reduces the number of fuzzy rules. Numerical results indicate that these two models have almost the same accuracy, while the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system takes more time to train. It is also shown that although the effective number of neurons in the hidden layer is less than half the number of the input elements, the neural network can have satisfactory performance.

Keywords

Neural Network; Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System; Chaotic Traffic Volumes; State Space Reconstruction

Conflicts of Interest

The authors declare no conflicts of interest.

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