Simulation of Heavy Rainfall Events during Retreat Phase of Summer Monsoon Season over Parts of Andhra Pradesh

Abstract

The main aim of this paper is to simulate monsoon heavy rainfall episodes that caused floods across some parts of Andhra Pradesh (AP) state, India during 29th September through 2nd October, 2009. A heavy rainfall quantity of 21 cm was observed near Amaravathi station (16.15°N; 80.5°E) in Guntur district due to a meso-α low pressure system extended from the Bay of Bengal and widespread rainfall episodes were also appeared to many adjoining places in other three districts namely Mahaboob Nagar, Kurnool and Krishna in AP state simultaneously on 29th September. The rainy situation continued till 2nd October and caused floods over above districts of AP state which lead to a death toll of 33 people and heavy crop loss. To quantify the above catastrophic monsoon heavy precipitation events a high resolution (9 km) Weather Research and Forecast (WRF-ARW) model is centered at Amaravathi station to simulate rainfall episodes over the study region. In the present case study the simulated sensitive experiment highlights the dynamical characteristics of the meso-α system interms of circulation changes at different levels. Secondly, the thermodynamical characteristics for the generation of convective activity of this meso-α event in terms of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and Convective Inhibition Energy (CINE) are also simulated. Dynamical and thermodynamical simulated results support heavy rainfall episodes due to a low pressure system around Amaravathi station. Thus circulation changes, high CAPE and low CINE magnitudes have well defined not only the strength of meso-α system, but also quantum of rain-fall to a tune of 19 cm near Amaravathi station on 29th September. The observed rainfall was 21 cm on 29th September and thus this model underestimates rainfall about 9.5% not only at Amaravathi station, but also at other stations as well. Similar results are noticed over the study region on other three days. In this numerical study heavy rainfall events are better represented by Kain-Fritsch (KF) scheme than Betts-Miller-Janjic (BMJ) and Grell-Deveneyi (GD) schemes. Finally simulated circulation features and rainfall quantities are validated with observed rainfall of the India Meteorological Department (IMD) and satellite derived datasets of KALPANA-1, while CAPE and CINE quantities are checked against available Wyoming University observations. The results are promising.

Share and Cite:

O. Bhanu Kumar, P. Suneetha, S. Rao and M. Kumar, "Simulation of Heavy Rainfall Events during Retreat Phase of Summer Monsoon Season over Parts of Andhra Pradesh," International Journal of Geosciences, Vol. 3 No. 4, 2012, pp. 737-748. doi: 10.4236/ijg.2012.34074.

Conflicts of Interest

The authors declare no conflicts of interest.

References

[1] O. S. R. U. B. Kumar, K. M. Krishna and S. R. Rao, “Simulation of Environmental Heavy Rainfall Episodes during June and July 2006—A Case Study,” Canadian Journal of Pure & Applied Sciences, Vol. 2, No. 1, 2008, pp. 211-220.
[2] O. S. R. U. B. Kumar, S. R. Rao and K. M. Krishna, “Study of Intra-Seasonal Oscillation and Circulation Changes during Summer Monsoon Season over India,” First International Workshop on the Frontiers of Atmospheric Physics and Technology, Yogi Vemana University, Kadapa, India, February 20-22, 2008.
[3] O. S. R. U. B. Kumar, S. R. Rao, S. Ranganathan and S. S. Raju, “Role of Intra-Seasonal Oscillations on Monsoon Floods and Droughts over India,” Asia Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, Vol. 46, No. 1, 2010, pp. 21-28.
[4] O. S. R. U. B. Kumar, S. R. Rao, and S. S. Raju, “Study of Interannual and Intra-Seasonal Variability of Summer Monsoon Circulation over India”, Canadian Journal of Pure and Applied Sciences, Vol. 4, No. 2, 2010, pp. 1199- 1206.
[5] I. Subbaramayya and O. S. R. U. B. Kumar, “The Onset and the Northern Limit of the South-West Monsoon over India,” The Meteorological Magazine, Vol. 107, 1978, pp. 37-48.
[6] I. Subbaramayya and O. S. R. U. B. Kumar, “Variations of the Onset of Summer Monsoon over India,” The Meteorological Magazine, Vol. 116, No. 1383, 1987, pp. 309-317.
[7] B. Dey and O. S. R. U. B. Kumar, “Himalayan Winter Snow Cover Area and Summer Monsoon Rainfall over India,” Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 88, No. C9, 1983, pp. 5471-5474. doi:10.1029/JC088iC09p05471
[8] B. Dey and O. S. R. U. B. Kumar, “Himalayan Summer Snow Cover and Withdrawal of the Indian Summer Monsoon,” Journal of Climate and Applied Meteorology, Vol. 14, No. 8, 1985, pp. 865-868. doi:10.1175/1520-0450(1985)024<0865:HSSCAW>2.0.CO;2
[9] P. A. Francis and S. Gadgil, “Intense Rainfall Events over the West Coast of India,” Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, Vol. 94, No. 1-4, 2006, pp. 27-42. doi:10.1007/s00703-005-0167-2
[10] Taraphdar, S., J. Sanjay and Mukhopadhyay, P, “On Northward Movement of Convergencezones along West Coast of India in a Real Time Forecast”, Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, Vol. 104, No. 3-4, 2009, pp. 177-189. doi:10.1007/s00703-009-0025-8
[11] A. J. Litta, B. Chakrapani and K. Mohankumar, “Mesoscale Simulation of an Extreme Rainfall Event over Mumbai, India, Using a High-Resolution MM5 Model,” Meteorological Applications, Vol. 14, No. 3, 2007, pp. 291-295. doi:10.1002/met.31
[12] O. S. R. U. B. Kumar, S. R. Rao and K. M. Krishna, “Role of Cumulus Parameterization Schemes in Simulating Heavy Rainfall Episodes off the Coast of Maharashtra Coast during 28th June-4th July, 2007,” Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, Vol. 105, 2009, pp. 167-179.
[13] D. V. B. Rao and S. B. Ratna, “Mesoscale Characteristics and Prediction of an Unusual Extreme Heavy Precipitation Event over India Using a High Resolution Meso Scale Model,” Atmospheric Research, Vol. 95, No. 2-3, 2010, pp. 259-269.
[14] A. Routray, U. C. Mohanty, K. Das Ananda and N. V. Sam, “Study of Heavy Rainfall Event over West Coast of India Using Analysis Nudging in MM5 during ARMEX-I,” Mausam, Vol. 56, No. 1, Special Issue on ARMEX, 2005, p. 107.
[15] A. Routray, U. C. Mohanty, D. Niyogi, S. R. H. Rizvi and K. K. Osuri, “Simulation of Heavy Rainfall Events over Indian Monsoon Region Using WRF-3DVAR Data Assimilation System,” Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, Vol. 106, No. 1-2, 2010, p. 20.
[16] M. Mohapatra and U. C. Mohanty, “Some Characteristics of Very Heavy Rainfall over Orissa during Summer Monsoon Season,” Journal of Earth System Science, Vol. 114, 2005, pp. 17-36.
[17] C. V. Srinivas, R. Venkatesan, D. V. B. Rao and D. Hariprasad, “Numerical Simulation of Andhra Severe Cyclone (2003): Model Sensitivity to Boundary Layer and Convection Parameterization,” Pure and Applied Geophysics, Vol. 164, No. 8-9, 2007, pp. 1-23. doi:10.1007/s00024-007-0228-1
[18] A. K. Bohra, S. Basu, E. N. Rajgopal, G. R. Iyengar, M. Das Gupta, R. Ashrit and B. Athiyaman, “Heavy Rainfall Episode over Mumbai on 26 July 2005: Assessment of NWP Guidance,” Current Science, Vol. 90, No. 9, 2006, pp. 1188-1194.
[19] V. F. Xavier, A. Chandrasekar, R. Singh and B. Simon, “The Impact of Assimilation of MODIS Data for the Prediction of a Tropical Low Pressure System over India Using a Mesoscale Model,” International Journal of Remote Sensing, Vol. 27, No. 20, 2006, pp. 4655-4676.
[20] V. G. Rakesh, R. Singh, P. K. Pal and P. C. Joshi, “Quantitative Evaluation of PSU-NCAR MM5 Forecasts over Indian Region during Monsoon 1998,” Proceedings of SPIE: Remote Sensing and Modeling of the Atmosphere, Oceans, and Interactions, Vol. 64040N, 2006. doi:10.1117/12.693963
[21] W. C. Skamarock, J. B. Klemp, J. Dudhia, D. O. Gill, D. M. Barker, W. Wang and J. G. Powers, “A Descriptive of the Advanced Research WRF Version 3.1,” NCAR Tech Note NCAR/TN-468_STR, 2005, p. 88.
[22] J. S. Kain and J. M. Fritsch, “Convective Parameterization for Mesoscale Models: The Kain-Fritsch Scheme, the Representation of Cumulus Convection in Numerical Models,” In: K. A. Emanueal and D. J., Raymond, Eds., American Meteor Society, 1993, p. 246.
[23] A. K. Betts, and M. J. Miller, “A New Convective Adjustment Scheme, Part II; Single Column Tests Using GATE Wave, BOMEX, and Arctic Air-Mss Data Sets”, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Vol. 112, 1986, pp. 693-709. doi:10.1256/smsqj.47307
[24] Z. I. Janjic, “The Step-Mountain eta Coordinate Model: Further Developments of the Convection, Viscous Sub Layer, and Turbulence Closure Schemes,” Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 122, No. 5, 1994, pp. 928-945. doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1994)122<0927:TSMECM>2.0.CO;2
[25] G. A. Grell, and D. Deveneyi, “A Generalized Approach to Parameterizing Convection Combining Ensemble and Data Assimilation Techniques,” Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 29, No. 140, 2002, pp. 1693-1696.
[26] E. J. Mlaqwer, S. J. Taubman, P. D. Brown, M. J. Lacono and S. A. Clough, “Radiative Transfer for Inhomogeneous Atmosphere: RRTM, a Validated Correlated k Model for the Long Wave,” Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 102. No. 14, 1997, pp. 16663-16682. doi:10.1029/97JD00237
[27] S. H. Chen and W. Y. Sun, “A One-Dimensional Time Dependent Cloud Model,” Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan, Vol. 80, No. 1, 2002, pp. 99-118.
[28] Y. Noh, W. G. Cheon, S. Y. Hong and S. Raasch, “Improvement of the K-Profile Model for the Planetary Boundary Layer Based on Large Eddy Simulation Data,” Boundary-Layer Meteorology, Vol. 107, No. 2, 2003, pp. 401-427. doi:10.1023/A:1022146015946
[29] J. Sanjay, S. Joshi and S. Taraphdar, “Numerical Simulation of Heavy Rainfall over Ratnagiri on May 30, 2006 using WRF,” Vayu Mandal, Vol. 33, No.1-4, Special Issue on TROPMET-2006, 2007, pp. 39-50.
[30] D. L. Zhang and R. A. Anthes, “A High-Resolution Mo- del for Planetary Boundary Layer Sensitivity Tests and Comparisons with SESAME-79 Data,” Journal of Applied Meteorology, Vol. 21, No. 11, 1982, pp. 1594-1609. doi:10.1175/1520-0450(1982)021<1594:AHRMOT>2.0.CO;2
[31] J. Dudhia, “Numerical Study of Convection Observed during the Winter Monsoon Experiment Using a Meso- scale Two-Dimensional Model,” Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, Vol. 46, No. 20, 1989, pp. 3077-3107. doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1989)046<3077:NSOCOD>2.0.CO;2
[32] J. Dudhia, “A Multi-Layer Soil Temperature Model for MM5,” Preprints of the 6th PSU/NCAR Meso Scale Model Users’ Workshop, Boulder, 22-24 July 1996, pp. 49-50.

Copyright © 2024 by authors and Scientific Research Publishing Inc.

Creative Commons License

This work and the related PDF file are licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.