Power Generation Optimization in ASEAN by 2030

N. Agya Utama, Keiichi N. Ishihara, Tetsuo Tezuka

Graduate School Energy Science, Kyoto University, Japan.

DOI: 10.4236/epe.2012.44031                

Abstract

The vast growing economic development in South East Asia (ASEAN) region leads to the increase of energy demand particularly electricity. Almost all the ASEAN member countries are planning to develop nuclear power plant in the near future, despite having quite enormous number of renewable energy potential such as geothermal (Indonesia and Philippines), high solar radiation (between 3 - 5 kW/m²/day), biomass and hydro the countries still required more sophisticated and more reliable source of power for its based load such as nuclear power. Philippines has built the first nuclear power plant back in 1980 in Bataan, however the commissioning of this plant was postponed due to the political power turbulence. The question whether nuclear or renewable energy could be the best option in term of cost effectiveness will be assessed in this paper. The optimization methodology has been used by using GAMS (General Algebraic Model), the econometric based on time series (1999-2010) is used to predict the increases of national power generation up to year 2030. The increases of electricity demand is assumed to be linear with the increased country GDP (Gross Domestic Products) and population. The optimization predicted that In Malaysia, the renewable energy could be the best option, since it shows lower cost compare to the fossil fuel based power plant. Geothermal in the Philippines shows cheaper to be commissioned compare to fossil fuel and nuclear power plant. While Indonesia the cost of nuclear still not competitive enough compare to fossil fuel, mainly due to cost of subsidy.

Keywords

ASEAN; Cost Optimization; Power Generation; Renewable Energy; Nuclear

Conflicts of Interest

The authors declare no conflicts of interest.

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