Stream-Flow Response to Climate Change and Human Activities in an Upstream Catchment of Huai River

Peng Shi^1,2*, Miao Wu², Xinxin Ma², Simin Qu², Xueyuan Qiao²

¹State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing, China.
²College of Water Resources and Hydrology, Hohai University, Nanjing, China.

DOI: 10.4236/gep.2014.25010                

Abstract

Climate change and human activities have great implications for hydrological process and water projects planning. In order to evaluate the impacts on stream-flow, statistical methods and SWAT model are applied to this research. The results indicate that the abrupt change year (1965) of annual stream-flow is chosen as the split point of natural and human influenced (particularly reservoirs) periods. The calibrated SWAT model is proved to be applicable in this catchment and is used to simulate the monthly runoff which can be regarded as the natural runoff induced by climate change. A major finding of this study is that the reservoir regulations have apparently altered the monthly and seasonal stream-flow regimes. By quantifying the impacts of climate variation and human activities, the decreasing trend of annual stream-flow is found, and human activities are proved to be the dominant role in the catchment. This research improves our knowledge of hydrological responses to natural and artificial factors, and provides a better understanding for the future reservoir regulations.

Keywords

Trend and Saltation Analysis, SWAT Model, Climate Change, Human Activities, Stream-Flow

Conflicts of Interest

The authors declare no conflicts of interest.

References

[1]	Arnold, J. G., Srinivasan, R., Muttiah, R. S., & Williams, J. R. (1998). Large Area Hydrologic Modeling and Assessment Part I: Model Development. Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 34, 73-89. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-1688.1998.tb05961.x
[2]	Beven, K., & Binley, A. (1992). The Future of Distributed Models: Model Calibration and Uncertainty Prediction. Hydrological Processes, 6, 279-298. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/hyp.3360060305
[3]	Cao, M., Zhang, C., & Zhou, H. (2008). Change Trend of Rainfall and Runoff in Upstream of Fengman Basin under Influence of Human Activities. Journal of China Hydrology, 28, 86-89. (In Chinese)
[4]	Chaouche, K., Neppel, L., Dieulin, C., Pujol, N., Ladouche, B., Martin, E., Salas, D., & Caballero, Y. (2010). Analysis of Precipitation, Temperature and Evapotranspiration in a French Mediterranean Region in the Context of Climate Change. Comptes Rendus Geoscience, 342, 234-243. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.crte.2010.02.001
[5]	Ding, J., & Deng, Y. (1988). Stochastic Hydrology. Chengdu: Chengdu University of Science and Technology Press. (In Chinese)
[6]	Dong, W. (2010). Study on the Effect of Human Activities and Climate Change on Hydrology and Water Resources—A Case Study in Jinghe Basin, Xinjiang. Jinghe University. (In Chinese)
[7]	Editorial (2008). Assessing Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability: Reflections on the Working Group II Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Global Environmental Change, 18, 4-7.
[8]	Gebremicael, T. G., Mohamed, Y. A., Betrie, G. D., Zaag, P., & Teferi, E. (2013). Trend Analysis of Runoff and Sediment Fluxes in the Upper Blue Nile Basin: A Combined Analysis of Statistical Tests, Physically-Based Models and Landuse Maps. Journal of Hydrology, 482, 57-68. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.12.023
[9]	Guo, H., Hu, Q., & Jiang, T. (2008). Annual and Seasonal Streamflow Responses to Climate and Land-Cover Changes in the Poyang Lake Basin, China. Journal of Hydrology, 355, 106-122. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2008.03.020
[10]	Guo, S., Wang, J., Xiong, L., Ying, A., & Li, D. (2002). A Macro-Scale and Semi-Distributed Monthly Water Balance Model to Predict Climate Change Impacts in China. Journal of Hydrology, 268, 1-15. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1694(02)00075-6
[11]	Hofmann, M. E., Hinkel, J., & Wrobel, M. (2011). Classifying Knowledge on Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability in Europe for Informing Adaptation Research and Decision-Making: A Conceptual Meta-Analysis. Global Environmental Change, 21, 1106-1116. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2011.03.011
[12]	IPCC (1995). IPCC Second Report of Assessment of Climate Change. London: Cambridge University Press.
[13]	Isik, S., Dogan, E., Kalin, L., Sasal, M., & Agiralioglu, N. (2008). Effects of Anthropogenic Activities on the Lower Sakarya River. Catena, 75, 172-181. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2008.06.001
[14]	Kendall, M. G. (1975). Rank Correlation Methods. London: Grif?n.
[15]	Kottegoda, N., Natale, L., & Raiteri, E. (2011). Simulation of Climatic Series with Nonstationary Trends and Periodicities. Journal of Hydrology, 398, 33-43. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.12.003
[16]	Lajoie, F., Assani, A. A., Roy, A. G., & Mesfioui, M. (2007). Impacts of Dams on Monthly Flow Characteristics: The Influence of Watershed Size and Seasons. Journal of Hydrology, 334, 423-439. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2006.10.019
[17]	Legates, D. R., & McCabe, G. J. (1999). Evaluating the Use of “Goodness-of-Fit” Measures in Hydrologic and Hydroclimatic Model Validation. Water Resources Research, 35, 233-241. http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/1998WR900018
[18]	Liu, Q., Yang, Z., & Cui, B. (2008). Spatial and Temporal Variability of Annual Precipitation during 1961-2006 in Yellow River Basin, China. Journal of Hydrology, 361, 330-338. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2008.08.002
[19]	Magilligan, F. J., & Nislowb, K. H. (2005). Changes in Hydrologic Regime by Dams. Geomorphology, 71, 61-78. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2004.08.017
[20]	Mimikou, M., Kouvopoulos, Y., Cavadias, G., & Vayianos, N. (1991). Regional Hydrological Effects of Climate Changes. Journal of Hydrology, 123, 119-146. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0022-1694(91)90073-Q
[21]	Mithell, J. M., Dzerdzeevskii, B., Flohn, H., Hofmeyr, W. L., Lamb, H. H., Rao, K. N., & Wallén, C. C. (1966). Climatic Change. Report of a Working Group of the Commission for Climatology, WMO Technical Note No. 79, World Meteorological Organization, p. 79.
[22]	Moriasi, D., Arnold, J., Van Liew, M., Bingner, R., Harmel, R., & Veith, T. (2007). Model Evaluation Guidelines for Systematic Quantification of Accuracy in Watershed Simulations. Transactions of the ASABE, 50, 885-900. http://dx.doi.org/10.13031/2013.23153
[23]	Morris, M. D. (1991). Factorial Sampling Plans for Preliminary Computational Experiments. Technometrics, 33, 161-174. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00401706.1991.10484804
[24]	Neitsch, S. L., Arnold, J. G., Kiniry, J. R., & Williams J. R. (2005a). SWAT Theoretical Documentation Version (2005). Temple, TX: Grassland, Soil and Water Research Laboratory, Agricultural Research Service.
[25]	Neitsch, S. L., Arnold, J. G., Kiniry, J. R., & Williams, J. R. (2005b). SWAT In-put/Output File Documentation Version (2005). Temple, TX: Grassland, Soil and Water Research Laboratory, Agricultural Research Service.
[26]	Panagoulia, D., & Dimou, G. (1997). Linking Space-Time Scale in Hydrological Modeling with Respect to Global Climate Change: Model Properties and Experimental Design. Journal of Hydrology, 194, 15-37. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1694(96)03220-9
[27]	Parry, M. L., Canziani, O. F., Palutikof, J. P., van der Linden, P. J., & Hanson, C. E., IPCC (2007). Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 976p.
[28]	Rinaldi, M. (2003). Recent Channel Adjustments in Alluvial Rivers of Tuscany, Central Italy. Earth Surface Process and Landforms, 28, 587-608. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/esp.464
[29]	Romanowicz, R., Beven, K., & Tawn, J. (1994). Evaluation of Predictive Uncertainty in Nonlinear Hydrological Models Using a Bayesian Approach. Statistics for the Environment, 2, 297-317.
[30]	Saltelli, A., Chan, K., & Scott, E. M. (2000). Sensitivity Analysis. New York: Wiley.
[31]	Santhi, C., Arnold, J. G., Williams, J. R., Dugas, W.A., Srinivasan, R., & Hauck, L. M. (2001). Valida-tion of the SWAT Model on a Large River Basin with Point and Nonpoint Sources. Journal of the American Water Re-sources Association, 37, 1169-1188. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-1688.2001.tb03630.x
[32]	Saxton, K. E., & Willey, P. H. (2005). Soil Water Characteristics Hydraulic Properties Calculator. Agricultural Research Service.
[33]	Shi, P., M, X., Chen, X., Qu, S., & Zhang, Z. (2013a). Analysis of Variation trends in Precipitation in an Upstream Catchment of Huai River. Mathematical Problems in Engineering, 2013, Article ID: 929383. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2013/929383
[34]	Shi, P., Ma, X., Hou, Y., Li, Q., Zhang, Z., Qu, S., Chen, C., Cai, T., & Fang, X. (2013b). Effects of Land-Use and Climate Change on Hydrological Processes in the Upstream of Huai River, China. Water Resource Manage, 27, 1263-1278. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11269-012-0237-4
[35]	Shi, Y. (2011). The influence of Climate Change and Human Activities on Basin Water Resources and Cases Study. Dalian: Dalian University of Technology. (In Chinese)
[36]	Wang, X. (2000). Characteristics Analysis of Rainfall in the Upper Reaches of the Shaying River Basin. Hydrology, 20, 53- 55. (In Chi-nese)
[37]	Wu, K., & Johnston, C. A. (2007). Hydrologic Response to Climatic Variability in a Great Lakes Watershed: A Case Study with the SWAT Model. Journal of Hydrology, 337, 187-199. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2007.01.030
[38]	Xu, C. Y., & Singh, V. P. (1998). A Review on Monthly Water Bal-ance Models for Water Resources Investigations. Water Resources Management, 12, 31-50. http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1007916816469
[39]	Ye, B., Yang, D., Kane, D.L., 2003. Changes in Lena River Streamflow Hydrology: Human Impacts versus Natural Variations. Water Resources Research, 39, 1200 8-1:8-14.
[40]	Zhang, X., Srinivasan, R., & Hao, E. (2007). Predicting Hydrologic Response to Climate Change in the Luohe River Basin Using the SWAT Model. Transactions of the ASABE, 50, 901-910. http://dx.doi.org/10.13031/2013.23154
[41]	Zhang, Y., Xia, J., Liang, T., & Shao, Q. (2010). Impact of Water Projects on River Flow Regimes and Water Quality in Huai River Basin. Water Resources Management, 24, 889-908. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11269-009-9477-3