A Regional Climate Study of Heat Waves over the Iberian Peninsula

Download Download as PDF (Size:5931KB)  HTML   XML  PP. 841-853  
DOI: 10.4236/acs.2014.45074    2,644 Downloads   3,152 Views   Citations

ABSTRACT

We present a regional climate simulation for the Iberian Peninsula for a 60-year period (1950-2009) using the WRF-ARW model with a focus on the simulation of summer maximum temperatures and associated extreme heat waves. The WRF model was designed at a 5 km horizontal resolution on a 5-month (May-September) seasonal scale, for every year, during the study period with initial/boundary conditions derived from NCEP 2.5 degree reanalysis. The comparison of simulated mean summer seasonal maximums and mean maximums of June, July, and August months with the corresponding E-OBS data sets indicates that the model is able to characterize the spatial variation of magnitudes of temperature change over the Iberian Peninsula. The mean extreme heat wave conditions during the climate period 1950-2009 are well simulated and match the observations well. The regional scale simulations clearly show the propagation of intense heat waves from the south west to north east of Iberia. The WRF-ARW model also simulated well the general trend of increase in heat waves over most parts of the Iberian Peninsula during the study period 1950-2009. The characteristics of the most severe heat waves years 2003 and 2006 are also well simulated by the model.

Cite this paper

Dasari, H. , Pozo, I. , Ferri-Yáñez, F. and Araújo, M. (2014) A Regional Climate Study of Heat Waves over the Iberian Peninsula. Atmospheric and Climate Sciences, 4, 841-853. doi: 10.4236/acs.2014.45074.

References

[1] Schär, C., Vidale, P.L., Lüthi, D., Frei, C., Häberli, C., Liniger, M.A. and Appenzeller, C. (2004) The Role of Increasing Temperature Variability in European Summer Heatwaves. Nature, 427, 332-336.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nature02300
[2] Beniston, M. (2004) The 2003 Heat Wave in Europe: A Shape of Things to Come? An Analysis Based on Swiss Climatological Data and Model Simulations. Geophysical Research Letters, 31, Article ID: L02202.http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2003GL018857
[3] Intergovernmental Pane (2004) The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC—Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, New York.
[4] Benestad, R.E. (2005) Climate Change Scenarios for Northern Europe from Multi-Model IPCC AR4 Climate Simulations. Geophysical Research Letters, 32, Article ID: L17704.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2005GL023401
[5] Tebaldi, C., Hayhoe, K., Arblaster, J.M. and Meehl, G.E. (2006) Going to the Extremes: An Intercomparison of Model-Simulated Historical and Future Changes in Extreme Events. Climatic Change, 79, 185-211.http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-006-9051-4
[6] Cassou, C., Terray, L. and Phillips, A.S. (2005) Tropical Atlantic Influence on European Heat Waves. Journal of Climate, 18, 2805-2811.
[7] Della-Marta, P.M. andWanner, H. (2006) A Method of Homogenising the Extremes and Mean of Daily Temperature Measurements. Journal of Climate, 19, 4179-4197.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3855.1
[8] Rebetez, M., Dupont, O. and Giroud, M. (2008) An Analysis of the July 2006 Heatwave Extent in Europe Compared to the Record Year of 2003. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 95, 1-7.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00704-007-0370-9
[9] Fischer, E.M., Seneviratne, S.I., Luthi, D. and Schaer, C. (2007) Contribution of Land-Atmosphere Coupling to Recent European Summer Heat Waves. Geophysical Research Letters, 34, Article ID: L06707.http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2006GL029068
[10] Fischer, E.M., Seneviratne, S.I., Vidale, P.L., Luthi, D. and Schaer, C. (2007) Soil Moisture—Atmosphere Interactions during the 2003 European Summer Heat Wave. Journal of Climate, 20, 5081-5099.http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI4288.1
[11] Ferranti, L. and Viterbo, P. (2006) The European Summer of 2003: Sensitivity to Soil Water Initial Conditions. Journal of Climate, 19, 3659-3680. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3810.1
[12] D’Andrea, F., Provenzale, A., Vautard, R. and De Noblet-Decoudré, N. (2006) Hot and Cool Summers: Multiple Equilibria of the Continental Water Cycle. Geophysical Research Letters, 33, Article ID: L24807. http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2006GL027972
[13] Vautard, R., et al. (2007) Summertime European Heat and Drought Waves Induced by Wintertime Mediterranean Rainfall Deficit. Geophysical Research Letters, 34, Article ID: L07711.
[14] Giorgi, F. and Bates, G. (1989) The Climatological Skill of a Regional Model over Complex Terrain. Monthly Weather Review, 117, 2325-2347.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1989)117<2325:TCSOAR>2.0.CO;2
[15] Bhaskaran, B., Jones, R.G., Murphy, J.M. and Noguer, M. (1996) Simulation of the Indian Summer Monsoon Using a Nested Regional Climate Model: Domain Size Experiments. Climate Dynamics, 12, 573-578. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00216267
[16] McGregor, J.L. (1997) Regional Climate Modeling. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, 63, 105-117.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF01025367
[17] de Castro, M., Gallardo, C., Jylha, K. and Tuomenvirta, H. (2007) The Use of a Climate-Type Classification for Assessing Climate Change Effects in Europe from an Ensemble of Nine Regional Climate Models. Climatic Change, 81, 329-341. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-006-9224-1
[18] Heikkilä, U., Sandvik, A. and Sorterberg, A. (2010) Dynamical Downscaling of ERA-40 in Complex Terrain Using WRF Regional Climate Model. Climate Dynamics, 36, 845-866.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0928-6
[19] Hari Prasad, D., Wibig, J. and Repaz, M. (2010) Numerical Modeling of the Severe Cold Weather Event over Central Europe (January 2006). Advances in Meteorology, 2010, Article ID: 619478.
[20] Hari Prasad, D, Venkata Srinivas, C., Venkata Bhaskar Rao, D. and Anjaneyulu, Y. (2011) Simulation of Indian Monsoon Extreme Rainfall Events during the Decadal Period 2000-2009 Using a High Resolution Mesoscale Model. Advances in Geosciences, A6, 31-48.
[21] Hari Prasad, D., Salgado, R., Perdigao, J. and Venkata Srinivas, C. (2014) A Regional Climate Simulation Study Using WRFARW Model over Europe and Evaluation for Extreme Temperature Weather Events. International Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2014, Article ID: 704079.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2014/704079
[22] Li, J.F., Zhang, Q., Chen, Y.Q.D. and Singh, V.P. (2013) GCMs-Based Spatiotemporal Evolution of Climate Extremes during the 21st Century in China. Journal of Geophysical Research, 118, 11017-11035.
[23] Nikulin, G., Kjellström, E., Hansson, U., Strandberg, G. and Ullerstig, A. (2011) Evaluation and Future Projections of Temperature, Precipitation and Wind Extremes over Europe in an Ensemble of Regional Climate Simulations. Tellus, 63, 41-55. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0870.2010.00466.x
[24] Lorenz, P. and Jacob, D. (2010) Validation of Temperature Trends in the ENSEMBLES Regional Climate Model Runs Driven by ERA40. Climate Research, 44, 167-177.
[25] Rummukainen, M. (2010) State-of-the-Art with Regional Climate Models. Vol. 1, John Wiley & Sons, Hoboken, 82-96.
[26] Kjellström, E., Boberg, F., Castro, M., Christensen, H.J., Nikulin, G. and Sánchez, E. (2010) Daily and Monthly Temperature and Precipitation Statistics as Performance Indicators for Regional Climate Models. Climate Research, 44, 135-150.
[27] Srinivas, C.V., Hari Prasad, D., Venkata Bhaskar Rao, D., Anjaneyulu, Y., Baskaran, R. and Venkatraman, B. (2012) Simulation of the Indian Summer Monsoon Regional Climate Using Advanced Research WRF Model. International Journal of Climatology, 33, 1195-1210.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.3505
[28] Srinivas, C.V., Bhaskar Rao, D.V., Hari Prasad, D., Hari Prasad, K.B.R.R., Baskaran, R. and Venkatraman, B. (2014) A Study on the Influence of the Land Surface Processes on the Southwest Monsoon Simulations Using a Regional Climate Model. Pure and Applied Geophysics, in Press. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00024-014-0905-9
[29] Skamarock, W.C., Klemp, J.B., Dudhia, J., Gill, D.O., Barker, D.M., Duda, M.G., Huang, X.-Y., Wang, W. and Powers, J.G. (2008) A Description of the Advanced Research WRF Version 3. NCAR Technical Note, NCAR/TN-475+ STR. Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology Division, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder.
[30] Kalnay, E., Kanamitsu, M., Kistler, R., et al. (1996) The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 77, 437-471.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1996)077<0437:TNYRP>2.0.CO;2
[31] Araújo, M.B., Ferri-Yáñez, F., Bozinovic, F., Marquet, P.A., Valladares, F. and Chown, S.L. (2013) Heat Freezes Niche Evolution. Ecology Letters, 16, 1206-1219. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/ele.12155
[32] Haylock, M., Hofstra, N., Klein-Tank, A., Klok, E.J., Jones, P. and New, M. (2008) A European Daily High-Resolution Gridded Data Set of Surface Temperature and Precipitation for 1950-2006. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 113, D20119. http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2008JD010201
[33] Soares, P.M.M., Cardoso, R.M., Miranda, P.M.A., Viterbo, P. and Belo-Pereira, M. (2012) Assessment of the ENSEMBLES Regional Climate Models in the Representation of Precipitation Variability and Extremes over Portugal. Journal of Geophysical Research, 117, Article ID: D07114.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2011JD016768

  
comments powered by Disqus

Copyright © 2017 by authors and Scientific Research Publishing Inc.

Creative Commons License

This work and the related PDF file are licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.