Share This Article:

Temperature Trend on Makkah, Saudi Arabia

Full-Text HTML XML Download Download as PDF (Size:4044KB) PP. 457-481
DOI: 10.4236/acs.2014.43044    3,292 Downloads   4,177 Views   Citations


The main objective of this study is to investigate temperature trend and distribution over 29 years period (1985 to 2013) in Makkah, Saudi Arabia, the holiest city for all Muslims. Monthly mean, maximum, and minimum temperature levels and their trends are investigated using Regression analysis and Theil-Sen nonparametric test. Also, trends in deviations from the reference period (1985-2013) are analyzed. The results showed that the number of hot days and nights increased annually by 1.5966 and 1.832, respectively, while the number of cold nights decreased annually by 0.4054 nights. Both Regression analysis and Theil-Sen test demonstrated positive trends in mean, minimum and maximum temperature levels. Trends are determined for various seasons and months of the year. The annual mean of daily mean, maximum and minimum temperature increased by 0.0398°C, 0.0552°C, 0.0398°C per year, respectively. The minimum value of monthly mean temperature (Tmmean = 23.98°C) was found in January, whereas the maximum value of the mean temperature (Tmmean= 35.95°C) was found in July. Maximum value of monthly mean of daily maximum temperature (Tmmax = 43.88°C) was found in June and minimum (30.54°C) in January. The monthly mean of the daily minimum temperature (Tmmin) varied between a minimum of 18.82°C in January and a maximum of 29.59°C in August. From the above analysis it can be concluded that Makkah is suffering from a considerable warming temperature trend which is confirmed by the Theil-Sen non-parametric test and there is potentially an increasing medical risk from heat waves that will be more intense. This requires specific attention toward: the energy demands for extra cooling, water resources, draughts, and medical preparedness by the decision makers in order to minimize these risks to residents, pilgrims who gather annually to perform hajj rituals and other visitors.

Cite this paper

Abdou, A. (2014) Temperature Trend on Makkah, Saudi Arabia. Atmospheric and Climate Sciences, 4, 457-481. doi: 10.4236/acs.2014.43044.


[1] IPCC (2007) Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. In: Solomon, S., Qin, D., Manning, M., Chen, Z., Marquis, M., Averyt, K.B., Tignor, M. and Miller, H.L., Eds., Contribution of Working Group I to the 4th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
[2] IPCC (2007) Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. In: Pachauri, R.K. and Reisinger, A., Eds., Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the 4th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
[3] IPCC (2007) Climate Change 2007: Mitigation of Climate Change. In: Metz, B., Davidson, O.R., Bosch, P.R., Dave, R. and Meyer, L.A., Eds., Contribution of Working Group III to the 4th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
[4] IPCC (2007) Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. In: Parry, M.L., Canziani, O.F., Palutikof, J.P., van der Linden, P.J. and Hanson, C.E., Eds., Contribution of Working Group II to the 4th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
[5] Brohan, P., Kennedy, J.J., Harris, I., Tett, S.F.B. and Jones, P.D. (2006) Uncertainty Estimates in Regional and Global Observed Temperature Changes: A New Data Set from 1850. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 111, Article ID: D12106.
[6] Jones, P.D. and Moberg, A. (2003) Hemispheric and Large-Scale Surface Air Temperature Variations: An Extensive Revision and an Update to 2001. Journal of Cl<0206:HALSSA>2.0.CO;2
[7] Soon, W., Baliunas, S., Posmentier, E.S. and Okeke, P. (2000) Variations of Solar Coronal Hole Area and Terrestrial Lower Tropospheric Air Temperature from 1979 to Mid-1998: Astronomical Forcings of Change in Earth’s Climate? New Astronomy, 4, 563-579.
[8] Vinnikov, K.Y. and Grody, N.C. (2003) Global Warming Trend of Mean Tropospheric Temperature Observed by Satellites. Science, 302, 269-272.
[9] Aesawy, A.M. and Hasanean, H.M. (1998) Annual and Seasonal Climatic Analysis of Surface Air Temperature Variations at Six Southern Mediterranean Stations. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 61, 55-68.
[10] Kadioglu, M. (1997) Trends in Surface Air Temperature Data over Turkey. International Journal of Climatology, 17, 511-520.<511::AID-JOC13
[11] Smadi, M. (2006) Observed Abrupt Changes in Minimum and Maximum Temperatures in Jordan in the 20th Century. American Journal of Environmental Sciences, 2, 114-120.
[12] Al-Fahed, S., Al-Hawaj, O. and Chakroun, W. (1997) The Recent Air Temperature Rise in Kuwait. Renewable Energy, 12, 83-90.
[13] ElNesr, M.N., Abu-Zreig, M.M. and Alazba, A.A. (2010) Temperature Trends and Distribution in the Arabian Peninsula. American Journal of Environmental Sciences, 6, 191-203.
[14] Nasrallah, H. and Balling Jr., R. (1995) Impact of Desertification on Temperature Trends in the Middle East. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, 37, 265-271.
[15] Hasanean, H. and AL-Khalaf, A. (2012) Variability of Wintertime Surface Air Temperature over the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Atmospheric and Climate Sciences, 2, 307-321.
[16] Almazroui, M., Islam, M.N., Jones, P.D., Athar, H. and Rahman, M.A. (2012) Recent Climate Change in the Arabian Peninsula: Seasonal Rainfall and Temperature Climatology of Saudi Arabia for 1979-2009. Atmospheric Research, 111, 29-45.
[17] Rehman, S. and Al-Hadhrami, L. (2012) Extreme Temperature Trends on the West Coast of Saudi Arabi. Atmospheric and Climate Science, 2, 351-361.
[18] Almazroui, M., Hasanean, H.M., Al-Khalaf, A.K. and Abdel Basset, H. (2013) Detecting Climate Change Signals in Saudi Arabia Using Mean Annual Surface Air Temperatures. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 113, 585-598.
[19] Arabia. In Encyclopedia Britannica. (2009)
[20] Abderrahman, W.A. and Al-Harazin, I.M. (2008) Assessment of Climate Change on Water Resources in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Proceeding of the GCC Environment and Sustainable Development Symposium, Dhahran, 28-30 January 2008, Section D-1: 1-13.
[21] City Population (2013) Saudi Arabia.
[22] Mimish, L. (2012) Electrocardiographic Findings in Heat Stroke and Exhaustion: A Study on Makkah Pilgrims. Journal of the Saudi Heart Association, 24, 35-39.
[23] Khogali, M. (1983) Epidemiology of Heat Illnesses during the Makkah Pilgrimages in Saudi Arabia. International Journal of Epidemiology, 12, 267-273.
[24] Posey, C. (1980) Heat Wave. Weatherwise, 33, 112-116.
[25] Mearns, L.O., Katz, R.W. and Schneider, S.H. (1984) Extreme High-Temperature Events: Changes in Their Probabilities with Changes in Mean Temperature. Journal of Climate and Applied Meteorology, 23, 1601-1613.<1601:EHTECI>2.0.CO;2
[26] Almazroui, M., Islam, M.N. and Jones, P.D. (2013) Urbanization Effects on the Air Temperature Rise in Saudi Arabia. Climatic Change, 120, 109-122.
[27] Abdou, A.E.A. (2000) Studying the Effect of Internal Consistency on the Objective Analysis. M.Sc. Thesis, Cairo University, Egypt, 118.
[28] Athar, H. (2012) Decadal Variability of the Observed Daily Temperature in Saudi Arabia during 1979-2008. Atmospheric Science Letters, 13, 244-249.
[29] Zhang, X., Aguilar, E., Sensoy, S., Melkonyan, H., Tagiyeva, U., Ahmed, N., et al. (2005) Trends in Middle East Climate Extreme Indices from 1950 to 2003. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 110, Article ID: D22104.
[30] Theil, H. (1950) A Rank Invariant Method of Linear and Polynomial Regression Analysis, i, ii, iii. Proceedings of the Koninklijke Nederlandse Akademie Wetenschappen, Series A Mathematical Sciences, 53, 386-392, 521-525, 1397-1412.
[31] Sen, P.K. (1968) Estimates of Regression Coefficient Based on Kendall’s Tau. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 63, 1379-1389.
[32] Munir, S., Habeebullah, T.M., Seroji, A.R., Gabr, S.S., Mohammed, A.M.F. and Morsy, E.A. (2013) Quantifying Temporal Trends of Atmospheric Pollutants in Makkah (1997-2012). Atmospheric Environment, 77, 647-655.
[33] Thermal Comfort and Heat Stress Guideline. (2010) University of Ottawa.
[34] Knowledge Economic City (2014) Knowledge Economic City, A study on the Risks Associated with the Concurrently with the Next Pilgrimage Seasons Summers and Propose Alternatives to Deal with. 88.
[35] Smoyer-Tomic, K.E. and Rainham, D.G.C. (2001) Beating the Heat: Development and Evaluation of a Canadian Hot Weather-Health Response Plan. Environmental Health Perspectives, 109, 1241-1248.
[36] Kalkstein, L.S. and Smoyer, K.E. (1993) The Impact of Climate Change on Human Health: Some International Implications. Experientia, 49, 969-979.
[37] Carslaw, D. and Ropkins, K. (2012) Openair—An R Package for Air Quality Data Analysis. Environmental Modelling & Software, 27-28, 52-61.
[38] Almazroui, M., Islam, M.N., Dambul, R. and Jones, P.D. (2014) Trends of Temperature Extremes in Saudi Arabia. International Journal of Climatology, 34, 808-826.
[39] Athar, H. (2014) Trends in Observed Extreme Climate Indices in Saudi Arabia during 1979-2008. International Journal of Climatology, 34, 1561-1574.
[40] Almazroui, M., Islam, M.N., Athar, H., Jones, P.D. and Rahman, M.A. (2012) Recent Climate Change in the Arabian Peninsula: Annual Rainfall and Temperature Analysis of Saudi Arabia for 1978-2009. International Journal of Climatology, 32, 953-966.

comments powered by Disqus

Copyright © 2017 by authors and Scientific Research Publishing Inc.

Creative Commons License

This work and the related PDF file are licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.