Share This Article:

An Agent-Based Model for Studying the Impact of Herd Mobility on the Spread of Vector-Borne Diseases: The Case of Rift Valley Fever (Ferlo Senegal)

Full-Text HTML XML Download Download as PDF (Size:1391KB) PP. 97-111
DOI: 10.4236/ojmsi.2014.23012    2,055 Downloads   2,520 Views   Citations


Vector-borne diseases are highly sensitive to environment and to environmental changes. Rift Valley Fever (RFV) is a mosquito-borne zootic virus associated with severe diseases in human beings and economic consequences to livestock sector. Animal and human movements have a fundamental impact on RVF transmission. In recent years, there has been a growing interest in the use of mathematics and agent based models to represent and analyze the dynamic of RFV transmission. However, no previous study has taken into consideration animal herds’ mobility and precipitation factors to understand the disease spread. This limitation underlines the necessity to use computational model approach based on multi-agent system in the study of vector-borne diseases transmission and diffusion. In this paper, a multi-agent system combining conceptual model expressiveness is used to study animal herds’ mobility and the precipitation parameter impact on the Rift Valley Fever outbreak in Ferlo Barkedji in Northern Senegal. Simulation scenarios with various parameters, including rain quality, hosts, vectors, camp dispersal around ponds, etc., are unrolled. The different results we have obtained show that the evolution of the number of infected hosts and infected vectors depend on the degree of animal herds’ mobility and on precipitations. Our model provides a framework that permits predicting the spread of the disease associated with the mobility of animal herds.

Cite this paper

Paul, P. , Bah, A. , Ndiaye, P. and Ndione, J. (2014) An Agent-Based Model for Studying the Impact of Herd Mobility on the Spread of Vector-Borne Diseases: The Case of Rift Valley Fever (Ferlo Senegal). Open Journal of Modelling and Simulation, 2, 97-111. doi: 10.4236/ojmsi.2014.23012.


[1] Hoogstraal, H., Meegan, J.M., Khalil, G.M. and Adham, F.K. (1979) The Rift Valley Fever Epizootic in Egypt 1977-1978, Ecological and Entomological Studies. Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, 73, 624-629.
[2] Lefèvre, P.C. (1997) Actualité de la fièvre de la vallée du Rift, Quels enseignements tirer des épidémies de 1977 et 1987. Médecine Tropicale, 57, 61S-64S.
[3] Meegan, J.M. (1979) The Rift Valley Fever Epizootic in Egypt 1977-1978: I. Description of the Epizootic and Virological Studies. Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, 73, 618-623.
[4] Woods, C.W., Karpati, A. M., Grein, T., McCarthy, N., Gaturuku, P., Muchiri, E., Dunster, L., Henderson, A., Khan, A.S., Swanepoel, R., et al. (2002) An Outbreak of Rift Valley Fever in Northeastern Kenya. Emerging Infectious Diseases, 8, 138-144.
[5] Zeller, H.G., Fontenille, D., Traoré-Lamizana, M., Thiongane, Y. and Digoutte, J.P. (1997) Enzootic Activity of Rift Valley Fever Virus in Senegal. American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, 56, 265-272.
[6] Jupp, P.G., Kemp, A., Grobbelaar, A., Leman, P., Burt, F.J., Alahmed, A.M., Al Mujalli, D., Al Khamees, M. and Swanepoel, R. (2002) The 2000 Epidemic of Rift Valley Fever in Saudi Arabia: Mosquito Vector Studies. Medical and Veterinary Entomology, 1, 245-252.
[7] Miller, B.R., Godsey, M.S., Crabtree, M.B., Savage, H.M., Al-Mazrao, Y., Al-Jeffri, M.H., Abdoon, A.M., Al-Seghayer, S.M., Al-Shahrani, A.M. and Ksiazek, T.G. (2002) Isolation and Genetic Characterization of Rift Valley Fever Virus from Aedesvexans arabiensis, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Emerging Infectious Diseases, 8, 1492-1494.
[8] Sissiko, D., Giry, C., Gabrié, P., Tarantola, A., Pettinelli, F., Collet, L., D’ortenzio, E., Renault, P. and Pierre, V. (2009) Emergence chez l’homme de la fièvre de la vallée du rift à Mayotte. Bulletin Epidémiologique Hebdomadaire-Institut de Veille Sanitaire (INVS), 4, 33-36.
[9] Ba, Y., Diallo, D., Kebe, C.M.F., Dia, I. and Diallo, M. (2000) 2005: Aspects of Bioecology of Two Rift Valley Fever virus Vectors in Senegal (West Africa): Aedes vexans and Culex poicilipes (Diptera: Culicidae). Journal of Medical Entomology, 42, 739-750.[0739:AOBOTR]2.0.CO;2
[10] Jouan, A., Le Guenno, B., Digoutte, J.P., Philippe, B., Riou, O. and Adam, F. (1988) A Rift Valley Fever Epidemic in Southern Mauritania. Annales de l’Institut Pasteur/Virologie, 139, 307-308.
[11] Lacaux, J.P., Tourre, Y.M., Vignolles, C., Ndione, J.A. and Lafaye, M. (2007) Classification of Ponds from High-Spa- tial Resolution Remote Sensing: Application to Rift Valley Fever Epidemics in Senegal. Remote Sensing of Environment, 106, 66-74.
[12] Ndione, J.-A., Besancenot, J.-P., Lacaux, J.-P., Sabatier, P. (2003) Environnement et épidémiologie de la fièvre de la vallée du Rift (FVR) dans le bassin inferieur du fleuve Sénégal. Environnement, Risques et Santé, 2, 176-182.
[13] Ndione, J.A., Diop, M., Lacaux, J.P. and Gaye, A.T. (2008) Variabilité intra-saisonnière de la Pluviométrie et émergence de la fièvre de la vallée du rift (FVR) dans la vallée du fleuve Sénégal: Nouvelles considérations. Climatologie, 5, 83-97.
[14] Linthicum, K.J., Assaf, A., Compton, J.T., Kelley, P.W., Myers, M.F. and Peters, C.J. (1999) Climate and Satellite Indicators to Forecast Rift Valley Fever Epidemics in Kenya. Science, 285, 397-400.
[15] Jarlan, L., Tourre, Y.M., Mougin, E.P. and Mazzega, P. (2005) Dominant Patterns of AVHRR NDVI Interannual Variability over the Sahel and Linkages with Key Climate Signals (1982-2003). Geophysical Research Letters, 32, Article ID: L04701.
[16] Anyamba, A., Linthicum. J. and Tucker, C.J. (2001) Climate-Disease Connections: Rift Valley Fever in Kenya. Cadernos de Saúde Pública, 17, S133-S140.
[17] Ba, Y., Diallo, D., Dia, I. and Diallo, M. (2006) Comportement Trophique des Vecteurs du Virus de la Fièvre de la Vallée du Rift au Sénégal: Implications dans l’épidémiologie de la Maladie. Bulletin de la Société de Pathologie Exotique, 99, 283-289.
[18] Fontenille, D., Traore Lamizana, M., Diallo, M., Thonnon, J., Digoutte, J.-P. and Zeller, H.G. (1998) Nouveaux vecteurs de la fièvre de la vallée du Rift en Afrique de l’Ouest. Emerging Infectious Diseases, 4, 289-293.
[19] Garrett-Jones, C. and Rab, B. (1964) The Assessment of Insecticidal Impact on the Malaria Mosquito’s Vectorial Capacity, from Data on the Proportion of Parous Females. Bulletin of the World Health Organization, 31, 71-86.
[20] Thonnon, J., Picquet, M., Thiongane, Y., Lo, M., Sylla, R. and Vercruysse, J. (1999) Rift Valley Fever Surveillance in the Lower Senegal River Basin: Update 10 Years after the Epidemic. Tropical Medicine and International Health, 4, 580-585.
[21] Meegan, J.M. and Bailey, C.L. (1988) Rift Valley Fever. Arbovirus Epidemiology and Ecology, 4, 51-76.
[22] Ferber, J. (1995) Les systèmes multi-agents: vers une intelligence collective, InterEditions.
[23] Ndiaye, P.I., Bicout, D.J., Mondet, B. and Sabatier, P. (2006) Rainfall Triggered Dynamics of Aedes Mosquito Aggressiveness. Journal of Theoretical Biology, 243, 222-229.
[24] Green, D.M., Kiss, I.Z. and Kao, R.R. (2006) Modelling the Initial Spread of Foot-and-Mouth Disease through Animal Movements. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 273, 2729-2735.
[25] Bajardi, P., Barrat, A., Savini, L. and Colizza, V. (2012) Optimizing Surveillance for Livestock Disease Spreading through Animal Movements. Journal of the Royal Society Interface, 9, 2814-2825.
[26] Kao, R.R., Green, D.M., Johnson, J. and Kiss, I.Z. (2007) Disease Dynamics over Very Different Time-Scales: Foot-and-Mouth Disease and Scrapie on the Network of Livestock Movements in the UK. Journal of the Royal Society Interface, 4, 907-916.
[27] Gibbens, J.C., Sharpe, C.E., Wilesmith, J.W., Mansley, L.M., Michalopoulou, E., Ryan, J.B.M. and Hudson, M. (2001) Descriptive of Epidemiology of the 2001 Foot-and-Mouth Disease Epidemic in Great Britain: The First Five Months. Veterinary Record, 149, 729-743.
[28] Gilbert, M., Mitchell, A., Bourn, D., Mawdsley, J., Clifton-Hadley, R. and Wint, W. (2005) Cattle Movements and Bovine Tuberculosis in Great Britain. Nature, 435, 419-496.
[29] Kao, R.R., Danon, L., Green, D.M. and Kiss, I.Z. (2006) Demographic Structure and Pathogen Dynamics on the Network of Livestock Movements in Great Britain. Proceedings of the Royal Society B, 273, 1999-2007.
[30] Keeling, M.J., et al. (2001) Dynamics of the 2001 UK Foot and Mouth Epidemic: Stochastic Dispersal in a Heterogeneous Landscape. Science, 294, 813-817.
[31] Kiss, I.Z., Kao, R.R. and Green, D.M. (2006) The Network of Sheep Movements with Great Britain: Network Properties and Their Implications for Infectious Disease Spread. Journal of the Royal Society Interface, 3, 669-677.
[32] Fèvre, E.M., de C. Bronsvoort, B.M., Hamilton, K.A. and Cleaveland, S. (2006) Animal Movements and the Spread of Infectious Diseases. Trends in Microbiology, 14, 125-131.
[33] Eubank, S., Guclu, H., Kumar, V.S.A., Marathe, M.V., Srinivasan, A., Toroczkai, Z. and Wang, N. (2004) Modelling Disease Outbreaks in Realistic Urban Social Networks. Nature, 429, 180-184.
[34] Murray, J.D. (2003) Mathematical Biology. II. Spatial Models and Biomedical Applications. Springer, Berlin, 18.
[35] Ferguson, N.M., Donnelly, C.A. and Anderson, R.M. (2001) The Foot-and-Mouth Epidemic in Great Britain: Pattern of Spread an Impact of Interventions. Science, 292, 1155-1160.
[36] Roche, B., Guégan, J.-F. and Bousquet, F. (2008) Multi-Agent Systems in Epidemiology: A First Step for Computational Biology in the Study of Vector-Borne Disease Transmission. BMC Bioinformatics, 9, 435.
[37] Kao, R.R. (2003) The Impact of Local Heterogeneity on Alternative Control Strategies for Foot-and-Mouth Disease. Proceedings of the Royal Society B, 270, 2557-2564.
[38] Bacaer, N. and Guernaoui, S. (2006) The Epidemic Threshold of Vector-Borne Diseases with Seasonality. Journal of Mathematical Biology, 53, 421-436.
[39] Diallo, M., Lochouarn, L., Ba, K., et al. (2000) First Isolation of the Rift Valley Fever Virus from Culex poicilipes (Diptera: Culicidae) in Nature. American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, 62, 702-704.
[40] May, R.M. and Lloyd, A.L. (2001) Infection Dynamics on Scale-Free Networks. Physical Review E, 64, Article ID: 066112.
[41] Moron, V. (1994) Guinean and Sahelian Rainfall Anomaly Indices at Annual and Monthly Scales (1933-1990). International Journal of climatology, 14, 325-341.
[42] Nicholson, S.E. (1979) Revised Rainfall Series for the West African Subtropics. Monthly Weather Review, 107, 620-623.<0620:RRSFTW>2.0.CO;2
[43] Beck, L.R., Rodriguez, M.H., Dister, S.W., Rodriguez, A.D., Rejmankova, E., Ulloa, A., Meza, R.A., Roberts, D.R., Paris, J.F., Spanner, M.A., et al. (1994) Remote Sensing as a Landscape Epidemiologic Tool to Identify Villages at High Risk for Malaria Transmission. The American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, 51, 271-280.
[44] De La Rocque, S., Michel, J.F., Cuisance, D., De Wispelaere, G., Augusseau, X., Solano, P., Guillobez, S. and Arnaud, M. (2001) Le Risque Trypanosomien: Une Approche Globale pour une Décision Locale. CIRAD, Montpellier, 151.
[45] Lobitz, B., Beck, L., Huq, A., Wood, B., Fuchs, G., Faruque, A.S. and Colwell, R. (2000) Climate and Infectious disease: Use of Remote Sensing for Detection of Vibrio cholerae by Indirect Measurement. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 97, 1438-1443.
[46] Pin Diop, R. (2006) Spatialisation du risque de transmission de la fièvre de la vallée de Rift en milieu agropastoral sahélien du Sénégal septentrional. Thèse Doctorat, Université d’Orléans, Orléans, France.
[47] Macdonald, G. (1957) The Epidemiology and Control of Malaria. Oxford University Press, London.
[48] Kao, R.R. (2002) The Role of Mathematical Modelling in the Control of the 2001 FMD Epidemic in the UK. Trends in Microbiology, 10, 279-286.
[49] Dutertre, J. (1976) Etude d’un modèle épidémiologique appliqué au paludisme. Annales de la Societe Belge de Medecine Tropicale, 56, 127-141.
[50] Bah, A., Touré, I., Le Page, C., Ickowitz, A. and Diop, A. (2006) An Agent Based Model to Understand the Multiple Uses of Land and Resources around Drillings in Sahel. Mathematical and Computer Modelling, 44, 513-534.
[51] Demazeau, Y., Durfee, E., Georgeff, M. and Jennings, N. (1998) Preface. In: Demazeau, Y., Ed., Proceedings of the 3rd International Conference on Multi-Agent Systems (ICMAS), Paris, 3-7 July 1998, 13-14.
[52] Jaton, J.-F. (1982) Contribution à l’étude des relations pluies-débits dans les petits bassins versants ruraux. Thèse de Doctorat en Sciences Techniques, Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne, écublens, 171.
[53] Bousquet, F., Bakam, I., Proton, H. and Le Page, C. (1998) Cormas: Common-Pool Resources and Multi-Agent Systems. Lecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence, 1416, 826-837.

comments powered by Disqus

Copyright © 2018 by authors and Scientific Research Publishing Inc.

Creative Commons License

This work and the related PDF file are licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.