Fair Plan 4: Safeguarding the Climate of “This Island Earth”

Download Download as PDF (Size:1516KB)  HTML   XML  PP. 431-436  
DOI: 10.4236/acs.2014.43041    1,760 Downloads   2,099 Views   Citations


Earth is the only habitable planet in the solar system and beyond in interstellar space for a distance that would take us at least 80,000 years to traverse at the speed of Voyager 1. Thus our home planet is “This Island Earth”. Here we use our Simple (engineering-type) Climate Model to calculate the change in global-mean near-surface air temperature from 1765 through the third millennium for historical emissions and two scenarios of future emissions of greenhouse gases: (1) a Reference scenario of unabated emissions, and (2) our Fair Plan scenario wherein emissions are phased out to zero from 2020 to 2100. The temperature change for the Reference cases increases to 5.2°C (9.4°F) in 2225 and remains there for at least 40 human generations. By design, the temperature change for the Fair Plan increases only to 2°C (3.6°F)—the limit adopted by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change “to prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system”—in 2082 and thereafter decreases through the remainder of the millennium. Accordingly, we need to adopt the Fair Plan to safeguard the climate of “This Island Earth”.

Cite this paper

Schlesinger, M. , Ring, M. , Lindner, D. , Cross, E. and Prince, V. (2014) Fair Plan 4: Safeguarding the Climate of “This Island Earth”. Atmospheric and Climate Sciences, 4, 431-436. doi: 10.4236/acs.2014.43041.


[1] NASA, Planetary Fact Sheet. http://nssdc.gsfc.nasa.gov/planetary/factsheet/
[2] Closest Star. http://www.universetoday.com/102920/what-is-the-closest-star/
[3] National Geographic Society (2013) Voyager 1 Leaves Solar System, NASA Confirms.
[4] Universal Studios (1955) This Island Earth. http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0047577/
[5] Schlesinger, M.E., Ring, M.J. and Cross, E.F. (2012) A Fair Plan to Safeguard Earth's Climate. Journal of Environmental Protection, 3, 455-461, http://dx.doi.org/10.4236/jep.2012.36055
[6] Schlesinger, M.E., M.J. Ring, and E.F. Cross (2012) A Revised Fair Plan To Safeguard Earth’s Climate. Journal of Environmental Protection, 3, 1330-1335, http://dx.doi.org/10.4236/jep.2012.310151
[7] Schlesinger, M.E., Lindner, D., Ring, M.J. and Cross, E.F. (2013) A Fair Plan to Safeguard Earth’s Climate: 3. Outlook for Global Temperature Change throughout the 21st Century. Journal of Environmental Protection, 4, 653-664. http://dx.doi.org/10.4236/jep.2013.46075
[8] Schlesinger, M.E., Andronova, N.G., Entwistle, B., Ghanem, A., Ramankutty, N., Wang, W. and Yang, F. (1997) Modeling and Simulation of Climate and Climate Change. In: Castagnoli, G.C. and Provenzale, A., Eds., Past and Present Variability of the Solar-Terrestrial System: Measurement, Data Analysis and Theoretical Models: Proceedings of the International School of Physics “Enrico Fermi” CXXXIII, Amsterdam, IOS Press, 389-429.
[9] Meinshausen, M., Smith, S.J., Calvin, K.V., Daniel, J.S., Kainuma, M., Lamarque, J.-F., Matsumoto, K., Montzka, S.A., Raper, S.C.B., Riahi, K., Thomson, A.M., Velders, G.J.M. and van Vuuren, D. (2011) The RCP Greenhouse Gas Concentrations and Their Extension from 1765 to 2500. Climatic Change, 109, 213-241. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0156-z
[10] Hegerl, G.C. and Bindoff, N.L. (2005) Warming the World’s Oceans. Science, 309, 254-255. http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.1114456
[11] United Nations (1992) United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.
[12] United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (2010) Report of the Conference of the Parties on Its Sixteenth Session. Cancun, Mexico, 31 p.
[13] Ring, M.J., Lindner, D., Cross, E.F. and Schlesinger, M.E. (2012) Causes of the Global Warming Observed Since the 19th Century. Atmospheric and Climate Sciences, 2, 401-415.

comments powered by Disqus

Copyright © 2017 by authors and Scientific Research Publishing Inc.

Creative Commons License

This work and the related PDF file are licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.