A Type of Combination Forecasting Method Based on Time Series Method and PLS

Liang Wan, Biao Luo, Hong-Mei Ji, Wei-Wei Yan

School of Business, Anhui University, Hefei, China.
School of Management, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, China.

DOI: 10.4236/ajor.2012.24055                

Abstract

This paper depends on the panel data of Anhui province and its 17 cities’ cigarette sales. First we established three single forecasting models (Holter-Wintel Season product model, Time series model decomposing model and Partial least square regression model), after getting the predicted value of cigarette sales from these single models, we then employ the combination forecasting method based on Time Series method and PLS to predict the province and its 17 cities’ cigarette sales of the next year. The results show that the accuracy of prediction is good which could provide a reliable reference to cigarette sales forecasting in Anhui province and its 17 cities.

Keywords

PLS; Time Series Method; Combination Forecast Method; Sales Forecasts

Conflicts of Interest

The authors declare no conflicts of interest.

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