Share This Article:

Urban Wind Speed Analysis in Global Climate Change Perspective: Karachi as a Case Study

Full-Text HTML Download Download as PDF (Size:200KB) PP. 1000-1009
DOI: 10.4236/ijg.2012.325100    3,792 Downloads   6,142 Views   Citations

ABSTRACT

It is now well known that coastal urban local climate has been showing changing pattern due to global climate change. This communication attempts to explore fluctuating pattern of urban average monthly wind speed during past 50 years (1961-2010). It shows peculiar results taking Karachi (24?53'N, 67?00'E), a coastal mega-city of Pakistan, as a case study. Mann-Kendall trend test shows that March, April and October and both summer and winter seasons show positive trends for the average monthly wind speed during the whole study period (1961-2010). For the earlier 25 years data, it has been found that January, March, May, August, November and December and annual wind speed data have shown the negative trends. Only summer season has shown the positive trend for the wind speed. Similarly, for the most recent 25 years data it has been found that January, February, March, April, May, June, October, November and December and annual and both summer and winter wind speed data have shown the positive trends showing some degree of change in wind speed pattern. Probabilistic analysis reveals that average monthly wind speed data sets follow lognormal, logistic, largest extreme value, and Weibull (two-and three-parameters) probability distributions. Change point analysis has also confirmed the change in the pattern of observed average monthly wind speed data near 1992. The analysis performed reveals the effect of global warming on the local urban wind speed which appears to be temporal non-stationary.

Cite this paper

M. Hussain, M. Iqbal and S. Soomro, "Urban Wind Speed Analysis in Global Climate Change Perspective: Karachi as a Case Study," International Journal of Geosciences, Vol. 3 No. 5A, 2012, pp. 1000-1009. doi: 10.4236/ijg.2012.325100.

References

[1] M. A. Hussain, “Mathematical Aspects of The Impact of Urban Greenhouse Gas Emissions on Global Warming,” Ph.D. Thesis, Federal Urdu University of Arts, Science and Technology, Karachi, 2006.
[2] M. A. Hussain and M. R. K. Ansari, “Some Insights of Local and Global Temperatures Dynamics,” Arabian Journal for Science and Engineering, Vol. 35, No. 1A, 2010, pp. 103-113.
[3] M. A. Hussain and M. R. K. Ansari, “Statistical Aspects of Global Warming Dynamics,” Arabian Journal for Science and Engineering, Vol. 32, No. 2A, 2007, pp. 189- 201.
[4] M. A. K. Yousuf Zai, M. A. K. Ansar, J. Quamar, J. Iqbal and M. A. Hussain, “Predicting the Variations in the Wavelength Structures of the Incoming Radiation Due to Ozone Layer Depletion at Arabian Sea,” The Nucleus, Vol. 45, No. 1, 2008, 7 p.
[5] M. A. K. Yousuf Zai, M. A. K. Ansari, J. Quamar, J. Iqbal and M. A. Hussain, “Comparison of AR Strategy with that of Regression Approach for Determining Ozone Layer Depletion as a Physical Process,” The Nucleus, Vol. 45, No. 2, 2008, 7 p.
[6] R. Meldensohn, et al., “The Impact of Climate Change on Global Tropical Cyclone Damage,” Nature Climate Change, Vol. 2, No. 10, 2012, pp. 205-209.doi:10.1038/nclimate1357
[7] M. A. Hussain, et al., “Persistency Analysis of Cyclone History in Arabian Sea,” The Nucleus, Vol. 48, No. 4, 2011, pp. 273-277.
[8] M. A. Hussain, et al., “Forecast Models for Urban Extreme Temperatures: Karachi Region as a Case Study,” The Nucleus, Vol. 47, No. 4, 2010, pp. 301-311.
[9] M. A. Hussain, et al., “Arabian Seawater Temperature Fluctuations in the Twentieth Century,” Journal of Basic and Appliewd Sciences, Vol. 8, No. 1, 2012, pp. 105-109. doi:10.6000/1927-5129.2012.08.01.24
[10] S. H. L. Yim, J. C. H. Fung, and A. K. H. Lau, “Meso- scale Simulation of Year-to-Year Variation of Wind Power Potential over Southern China,” Energies, Vol. 2, 2009, pp. 340-361. doi:10.3390/en20200340
[11] J. M. Dryden, “Potential Climate Change Impacts on Wind Resources in Oklahoma: A Focus on Future Energy Output,” Masters Thesis, The University of Oklahoma, Norman, 2008.
[12] Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Resources, Hydrocarbon Development Institute of Pakistan, “Pakistan Energy Year Book,” 2004.
[13] www.urckarachi.org/IEE_Study_of_DHA-WFD_Project_(ii).pdf
[14] S.-H. Lee and H.-D. Kim, “Effects of Regional Warming Due to Urbanization on Daytime Local Circulations in a Complex Basin of the Daegu Metropolitan Area, Korea,” Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, Vol. 47, No. 5, 2008, pp. 1427-1441. doi:10.1175/JAMC1504.1
[15] ftp://ftp1.esrl.noaa.gov/users/.../Liu&Curry_manu_r1%201.doc
[16] http://www.globalchange.gov/images/cir/pdf/National.pdf
[17] S. Qureshi, “The Fast Growing Megacity Karachi as a Frontier of Environmental Challenges: Urbanization and Contemporary Urbanism Issues,” Journal of Geography and Regional Planning, Vol. 3, No. 11, 2010, pp. 306- 321.
[18] M. A. Hussain, et al., “Arabian Seawater Temperature Fluctuations in the Twentieth Century,” Journal of Basic and Applied Sciences, Vol. 8, No. 1, 2012, pp. 105-109. doi:10.6000/1927-5129.2012.08.01.24
[19] S. D. Río, A. Cano-Ortiz, L. Herrero and A. Penas, “Re- cent Trends in Mean Maximum and Minimum Air Temperatures over Spain (1961-2006),” Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Vol. 109, No. 3-4, 2012, pp. 605-626.doi:10.1007/s00704-012-0593-2
[20] M. A. Hussain, S. Abbas and M. R. K. Ansari, “Wind Speed Analysis of Some Coastal Areas near Karachi,” Pakistan Academy of Sciences, 2012.
[21] F. A. L. Jowder, “Weibull and Rayleigh Distribution Functions of Wind Speeds in Kingdom of Bahrain,” Wind Engineering, Vol. 30, No. 5, 2006, pp. 439-445.doi:10.1260/030952406779502650
[22] H. Basumatary, et al., “Weibull Parameter Estimation: A Comparison of Different Methods,” Wind Engineering, Vol. 29, No. 3, 2005, pp. 309-316.doi:10.1260/030952405774354895
[23] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logistic_distribution
[24] J. V. Seguro and T. W. Lambert, “Modern Estimation of the Parameters of the Weibull Wind Speed Distribution for Wind Energy Analysis,” Journal of Wind Engineering and Industrial Aerodynamics, Vol. 85, No. 1, 2000, pp. 75-84. doi:10.1016/S0167-6105(99)00122-1
[25] N. L. Johnson, S. Kotz and N. Balakrishnan, “Continuous Univariate Distributions,” John Wiley, New York, 2004.
[26] Reeves, Jaxk, J. Chen, X. L. Wang, R. Lund and Q. Q. Lu, “A Review and Comparison of Changepoint Detection Techniques for Climate Data,” Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, Vol. 46, No. 6, 2007, pp. 900- 915. doi:10.1175/JAM2493.1
[27] W. A. Taylor, “Change-Point Analyzer 2.0 Shareware program,” Taylor Enterprises, Libertyville, 2000. http://www.variation.com/cpa/tech/changepoint.html

  
comments powered by Disqus

Copyright © 2017 by authors and Scientific Research Publishing Inc.

Creative Commons License

This work and the related PDF file are licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.