A Study in Multistage Decision Making for Odisha State Avionic Infrastructure Development

Multistage decision making is either under certainty or uncertainty data con-ditions. Expected monetary values’ perfect information and monetary loss or gain at each stage of decision making are the research topics of a constrained decision making under risk. In the multistage decision making process, one stage’s decision interferes with the subsequent stage’s decision. In this paper, a simple study on decision making for creating Avionic infrastructure within the Odisha region is emphasized by using the mathematical logic tool on a case study problem. In this case study, the first stage D1 has two options, either construct or not construct new airports with utilizing the budgeted allot money. Each option’s outcome probability, conditional value and expected outcome value are determined by applying arithmetic and logical calculations to next two stages D2 and D3. The expected value and percentage of returns are mentioned in the decision trees designed in Section 3. The nodes of the decision tree are stages or chance nodes and the arc lines’ labels are mentioned from the appropriate expressions written in the decision tree and chance nodes table mentioned in Section 4.


Introduction
Multistage decision making within multiple options and action plans is a study in the Operational Research using optimization techniques. The corporal or government administrations also use this type of decision making procedure In the research paper [1], the authors published a proposed planning to expand airways transportation facility within Odisha state airports and bring the notice of Odisha administration for constructing necessary infrastructure to maintain the newly built airports for multipurpose use. In the research paper [2], the authors studied the necessary infrastructure establishment modernization at Indian airports for facilitating aircraft component assembly and manufacturing at the existing and to be constructed new airports. The newly built airports in Odisha will not only provide facility to passengers and trainee engineers with low cost quick transportation facilities such as importing materials and support industrial tour to trainee engineers, also support the service aircraft components manufacture engineering workshop facility to assemble and fabricate the aircraft structures within Odisha for the services of the nation. In the research paper [3] the authors studied the linear program problem concerning aircraft, airport and crew schedule for low cost transportation. The background for such a study is the railways, and roadways maintenance materials are costly than the maintenance of aircraft and airports. The present days' administration should realize this truth and make necessary decision to invest a proportional quantity of energy resource for the escaping from acute shortage of locomotive vehicle resource energy.
In the present paper, we emphasize a logical calculation in the form of case study to convince the Odisha Avionic developers (OAD) should invest quantity of money as value of processing Aluminum, alloy metallic engines, Rubber tube L. Das

The Decision Tree Description
In the above designed decision tree, the node D1 is a decision stage that has two options either construct or not construct. Not constructed option line is connected to chance node 1. The chance node 2 has two outcomes. The chance node 1, outcome indicates expected value 5% return with probability 0.45% and the other outcome indicates 8% with probability 0.55% return.
The airport construction decision option or the chance node 2 implies two options namely success and failure. The success option arc connects to node stage D2 and failure labeled option arc connects to node stage D3. The D2 stage has two chance nodes 3 and 4. The arc connecting stage D2 to chance node 3, labeled as new airport construction and its success is 0.75% and failure is 0.25%.
The arc connecting node stage D2 to node 4 is labeled as develop existing infrastructure and its success probability is 0.85% and failure probability is 0.15%.
The decision stage D3 connects chance node 5 with the label modernize. It has two outcomes, one outcome is 5% return after investment and probability is 0.45%. The other outcome is 8% and probability is 0.55%.
The decision data is summarized and mentioned in following Table 2. 2) If only existing avionic fleet is to be developed and new airport is to be constructed the invested 600 million dollars will be subtracted from 647.5 million dollars which will yield 47.5 million dollar if the success is 100%.

1) If new airports are to be constructed the expected value is 650 million dol-
3

Conclusion
The quantity of dollars mentioned in the case study is a virtual quantity. But the Odisha state industries transacting minerals and resources concerned to manufacture industry products such as Iron, Aluminum, Cuppers wires, rubber tires, alloy metallic engines and in these mater's manufacturing phase, processed petrochemicals are valued real millions of dollar invested in each year. The mineral query such as Iron ore, Bauxite ore and Coal mine operating robots, ore transporter trucks operating from query site to plant site, product minerals from plant to warehouse site, are consuming 60% of net petroleum, diesel and kerosene quantity imported from abroad seaports to state Odisha. The remaining 40% of imported refined petrochemical to Odisha Indian Oil stores are utilized in other domestic industries and agriculture food process purposes. If two airports one at Dhamara and other at Rasgovindpur in Odisha are to be constructed, it will consume at most 0.01% of imported petrochemicals during the construction phase and completion after aircraft operational phase. The 80% of imported mineral oil to Odisha are utilized in metal extraction and the industry product maters transportation, and 80% of industry products are not used in the service or building infrastructure within Odisha.

Conflicts of Interest
The authors declare no conflicts of interest regarding the publication of this paper.