Study on the Efficiency and the Cooperative Direction of Tourism and Leisure Industry in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area

The bay area economy is of strategic importance to the progress of the world economy. As an important engine of national reform and opening up, the accelerated development of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area is an important part of China’s national strategy. Drawing on the experience of the economic development in other successful bay area, it is clear that the construction of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area should focus on the tourism and leisure industry. Based on the government statistics, a gray relational model and a vector auto-regression model (VAR) are employed to analyze the efficiency of the Tourism and Leisure Industry in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area. The results show that the progress of Tourism and Leisure Industry has a great driving effect on the other related industries, and there exists an interdependence between the tourism and leisure industry, GDP and investment in fixed assets within Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area. It suggests that the government should take appropriate measures to promote cooperation and take corresponding industrial policies to boost the development of the Tourism and Leisure Industry in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay.


Introduction
As the dynamic expanding of the global economy, national governments and At present, the scholar's general ideas about the economic impact of the tourism and leisure industry are as follows: Li Jiangfan made a quantitative analysis related to tourism industry based on the Input-Output Table of Guangdong, considered that tourism industry have strong industrial relevance, consumption complementarity and industrial effect [2]. Song Zengwen held that China's tourism industry had a relatively strong forward driving effect [3]. Weng Gangmin Open Journal of Social Sciences analyzed the particular character of the industry association of the tourism industry, the results show that it has low intermediate demand but high input rate, weak prior correlation but strong backward correlation [4]. Wu Sanmang thought that the tourism industry is closely related to other industries of the national economy and the proportion of related industries is on the rise [5]. Wang Qiyan analyzed the correlation between tourism and agriculture in Beijing, it showed that the level of agricultural development had a certain influence on tourism, but the correlation degree was relatively low [6]. According to the existing literature, the paper about tourism and leisure industrial function in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area is rarely found up to now. Therefore, this paper analyzes the driving effect of tourism and leisure industry in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area.
In the perspective of geography, "Bay Area" is a particular urban space of coastal city or urban agglomeration. It is used to describe the port group and urban agglomeration formed by many seaports and towns distributed around coastal ports [7]. Based on the characteristics of Bay Area, this paper's research scope includes Hong Kong, Macao, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Zhuhai, Foshan, Dongguan, Zhongshan, Zhaoqing, Huizhou and Jiangmen, for a total of 9 cities and 2 Special Administrative Regions. Obviously, the benefits that can be obtained through strengthening the research on tourism and leisure industry in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and grasping its regularity and orientation of construction should not be underestimated.
At present, most of the studies on Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area are qualitative analysis-based, which is lack of quantitative analysis on the tourism and leisure industry in this area. Thus, it is difficult to identify the importance that the tourism and leisure industry played at a deeper level. Based on this, it is of practical significance that the paper analyzes the driving efforts of the tourism and leisure industry in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area quantitatively.

Tourism and Leisure Industry Is an Inevitable Requirement
The Bay Area consists of a single bay or a number of coves, harbors and adjacent islands. Nowadays, the world's most developed regions tend to be concentrated

Tourism and Leisure Industry Contribute to Build the World's Tourism and Leisure Center in Hong Kong and Macao
Hong Kong occupy an important position in the world's tourism and leisure center and has become an internationally important tourist and leisure destination with its comprehensive shipping and transportation system, excellent catering and hotel services, unique culture, loose and appropriate immigration policies, strong economic strength and strong tourism development awareness.
Since Hong Kong's return to the motherland in 1997, the implementation of the special government policy of "one country, two systems" and especially the "free

Analysis of Current Situation
As far as the tourism industry is concerned, the tourism resources of the three In 2016, its tourism revenue was 204.8 billion yuan, ranked second. As for Shenzhen city, its tourism revenue continues to grow, received 136.866 billion in

Grey Correlation Analysis
, obtain S 0 and S 1 : Calculate absolute and relative degree e 01 and ′ e 01 :

Lag Order Determination and Stationarity Test
First of all, the lag order of the VAR model needs to be determined. Data analysis was performed with STATA software, the maximum lag order turned out to be two (Table 2). Then examines the stability of the model which lagged two periods, the results show that all the eigenvalues lie inside the unit circle, VAR satisfies stability condition (Figure 2), so the lag periods determined to be two.

Analysis of Results
First, the T-statistic for all lagged regression data is significant at level of 1% and the overall regression fit well (   noteworthy that the second-order coefficient of RTRA on RGDP is −0.257, indicating that the tourism industry has a strong positive impact on investment in fixed assets, as for its driving effect on GDP, only worked in the short term.

Granger Causality Test
The Granger causality test was conducted on total tourism revenue (TRA), gross domestic product (GDP) and investment in fixed assets (K) ( Table 4). In the  assets is also the Granger reason for total tourism revenue. At the same time, the joint significance of GDP and fixed asset investment was tested. The chi-square statistic was 25.71 and the corresponding P-value was approximately 0. It strongly rejected the null hypothesis that "neither of these two explanatory variables is Granger's reason for total tourism revenue". In other words, both GDP and investment in fixed assets are the Granger reasons for total tourism revenue.
The data in Table 4 also report the results which use GDP and investment in fixed assets as the explained variables, respectively. The results show that the total tourism revenue and investment in fixed assets are Granger causes of GDP, while the total tourism revenue and GDP are also Granger causes of total fixed assets investment. To sum up, the three variables exist two-way causality relationship rather than one-way causality relationship, indicating that there is an interdependence between the tourism and leisure industry, GDP and investment in fixed assets within Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area.

Conclusions and Recommendations
Based on grey correlation analysis and vector auto regressive (VAR) model, this and population are growing rapidly, but also lead to increased pressure on the ecological environment. The purpose of most tourists is recreation, and the most important factor that attracts the tourists is the beautiful coastal environment in the Bay Area. Therefore, in order to achieve a fast and sound sustainable development, it is necessary to control the scale and intensity of the ecological environment, scientifically formulate a suitable scale for the development of the coastal areas and increase the protection of the ecological environment. In addition, taking the natural geographical features of the Bay Area into account, the land resources that can be developed are relatively limited. Therefore, it is necessary to change the mode of land utilization moderately, and make rational planning and layout of the land resources of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area.