Are Uranus&Neptune responsible for Solar Grand Minima and Solar Cycle Modulation?

Detailed solar Angular Momentum (AM) graphs produced from the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) DE405 ephemeris display cyclic perturbations that show a very strong correlation with prior solar activity slowdowns. These same AM perturbations also occur simultaneously with known solar path changes about the Solar System Barycentre (SSB). The AM perturbations can be measured and quantified allowing analysis of past solar cycle modulations along with the 11,500 year solar proxy records (14C&10Be). The detailed AM information also displays a recurring wave of modulation that aligns very closely with the observed sunspot record since 1650. The AM perturbation and modulation is a direct product of the outer gas giants (Uranus&Neptune). This information gives the opportunity to predict future grand minima along with normal solar cycle strength with some confidence. A proposed mechanical link between solar activity and planetary influence via a discrepancy found in solar/planet AM along with current AM perturbations indicate solar cycle 24&25 will be heavily reduced in sunspot activity resembling a similar pattern to solar cycles 5&6 during the Dalton Minimum (1790-1830).


Introduction
Solar system dynamics have been postulated as the main solar driver for many decades. Jose (1965) [4] was the first to associate a recurring solar system pattern of the 4 outer planets (179 years). He suggested this pattern correlates with the modulation of the solar cycle. New research via this study suggests that over the past 6000 years the 179 year cycle cannot be maintained and is closer to a 172 year cycle which aligns with the synodic period of Uranus & Neptune (171.44 years). Later Landscheidt (2003) [5] progressed the planetary influence theories further by associating quasi-cyclic negative torque readings or "zero crossings" (AM readings going below zero) that can occur near grand minima. It has been found since that the negative readings occur in the general region of most grand minima but such records are not a reliable method of predicting the timing and strength of grand minima at the solar cycle level.
Other studies detailed the orbit path of the Sun around the SSB that showed a balanced trefoil pattern during times of "normal" solar cycles. Charvàtovà (2000) [2] shows this pattern or pathway as it moves to a disordered state during times of solar slowdown and are a direct result of the Uranus/Neptune conjunction of the era. Theodor Landscheidt's work has inspired both professional and citizen scientists. For example, Carl Smith (2007) [7] while researching Landscheidt's work produced an AM graph using the JPL ephemeris. This graph for the first time showed the detailed perturbations of solar AM that also coincide with past solar slowdowns along with the disordered solar path about the SSB. Carl Smith passed away in 2009 and to our knowledge was probably not aware of the hidden detail that was contained in his work, the perturbed Angular Momentum curve holding the clue.
The perturbed curves on the solar AM graph correspond with a solar torque perturbations which also alter the normal balanced solar path around the SSB. The solar velocity is also perturbed on a 172 year cycle (average) and a greater diversion between the orbital AM of the Sun and planets is observed. It is proposed through a spin orbit coupling mechanism resulting in varying solar equatorial rotation rate, the solar dynamo is reduced during these 172 year intervals.  [7] original graph is displayed HERE Note: AM units of measure equate to gram-cm^2/sec

Discussion -Grand Minima
The AM perturbations shown in Figure1 are the result of the extra AM from the Uranus/Neptune conjunction. The timing in relation to the Jupiter/Saturn opposition provides the different perturbation shapes that can be measured via the relevant planet angles and categorised into two groups. Perturbations occurring on the down slope "Type A" and those on the up slope "Type B" (down slope = right hand side of peak).
Type B occurrences coincide with weaker solar slowdowns and are more common before 1000AD and the Medieval Warm Period (MWP). See Figure 5. 2 Almost all perturbations throughout the past 6000 years coincide with solar downturns which vary in intensity.
During the past 750 years strong Type A perturbations are evident on the AM graph. Coinciding with the strong Type A multiple appearances is one of the greatest sustained periods of grand minima of the Holocene (Little Ice Age 1300-1870 approx). The Type A perturbations all have the same planetary configuration but with slightly differing planet angles.     [11]. The 14C values are compared with the AMP group centre values as well as each individual AMP event.
The results show a strong correlation with each individual AMP timing and strength. Each AMP group centre has the relevant planet angles recorded including the orientation of Uranus/Neptune (which planet is leading) The planetary angles taken at the AMP events providing a statistical measure that can be compared with the AMP events and Figure 1. The depth of the solar downturns shown on the 14C graphs coinciding with the planet angles and observed AMP events, deep troughs aligning with strong Type A events and sustained periods of strong solar activity aligning with periods of weaker Type B events. Type A events can also be weak depending on the planet angles. Type B events occurring before 1000AD are a result of the changing planet angles that move slowly over long periods of time. The overall background shape of the 14C graph coinciding with the occurrence and strength of Type A & B events. During times of multiple sustained Type B events each 172 year cycle can carry more than 3 events as observed in Figure 7.

Determining AMP Strength
The purple line shown on Figure 4 is a representation of the AMP strength of the era which follows the general trend of solar activity. The method used is a preliminary method using visual observation of each disturbance of the graph period. Figure 1 displays the different types of AMP events that cycle in groups every 172 years (average). These disturbances always line up with periods of solar downturn. Figure 10. Charts showing the AMP strength quantification method. Each count unit corresponding with 4 units of Usoskin [11] derived SSN units. Future quantification methods involving accurate planet angles would provide more detail.
The Solanki/Steinhilber [8][9] data shows regular solar downturns that vary in intensity, by observing the shapes of the AMP events that align with these downturns we are able to see a pattern that is repeatable.
There are rare occasions of strong Type A AMP events that do not cause solar activity reduction or perhaps not as low as expected, when not meeting the Wilson Test described in Wilson et al. (2008) [12]. This test states that for an AMP event to fully utilise the disturbance, the Jupiter/Saturn opposition or conjunction must happen before cycle maximum (to achieve a cycle with less than 80SSN). This has been tested over the sunspot record but is not available for accurate testing beyond that as the cycle maximum date is not known. By matching the AMP event shapes on the AM graphs with solar downturn strength each disturbance can be quantified. AMP events that align with deep grand minima (on a constant basis throughout history) get the highest score and also show the same shape or perturbation. Each point on the purple line shown on Figure 4 is a total of all AMP events making up that 172 year group. 8

Discussion -Solar Cycle Modulation
Solar cycle strength depicted by SSN (smoothed sunspot number) follows a recurring wave of power that follows the overall AM values (Figure 14). This AM wave displays a peak at the Uranus/Neptune conjunction and the corresponding trough at the Uranus/Neptune opposition, Scafetta (2009Scafetta ( , 2010[6] also recognised this trend in his work dealing with the celestial origin of climate oscillations. The SSN record of the past 400 years when matched with this wave shows a strong correlation. The AMP events that always occur at different intensities and length near the AM maximum, interrupt the correlation and work as a separate process. The AM sine wave is also seen as a background solar engine that affects cycle modulation (SSN) but not the length of the cycle. Other processes determine the length of each solar cycle.
The Damon Minimum (1856-1913) is sometimes described as a grand minimum and is most likely an example of a low sunspot cycle/s affected by low AM at the time of the Uranus/Neptune opposition and not a true grand minimum. AMP events are not observed during these intervals with only low AM recorded. The AMP event is thought to create a "phase catastrophe" situation which perhaps is responsible for reported 9 monopolar solar pole readings of the Maunder Minimum by Callebaut et al, (2007) [10]. The monopolar position is effectively providing the majority of sunspot activity to a single solar hemisphere. The monopolar position being described as a prolonged period where the solar poles have the same polarity as a result of only one pole reversing polarity during the Hale cycle. These events need to be accommodated when comparing the AM modulation versus the sunspot cycle modulation. The monopolar disturbance to the normal Hale cycle could explain the occurrence of twin low cycles paired during grand minima even though the second cycle is not perturbed. The poles require the extra cycle to maintain the normal synchronised state. The key point being that low cycles can be a result of low AM without experiencing "phase catastrophe" conditions. Grand minima occur during the higher part of the AM wave.
The AM graphs show a sine wave of AM modulation (around 10 years), the low points are considered as important as the high points. While a direct mechanical link between AM modulation and solar cycle modulation remains theoretical there is a direct example of some physical connection. The solar velocity around the SSB is absolutely linked to the AM sine wave which provides a roughly decadal acceleration/deceleration phase. To visualise the importance of the low points in relation to the high points of the AM graph, a centre point needs to be determined and the values recorded under that centre point are inverted. This provides a true reading of the AM strength. For the past 400 years an AM reading of 2E+47 (gram-cm^2/sec) was used from Carl Smith's data as the centre point.

Angular Momentum Data
The original Carl Smith AM [7] data is referenced and validated by independent analysis carried out by G.E. Pease using JPL coordinates and the following standard formula: M is the Mass of the Sun in kilograms. x, y, z, xdot, ydot, zdot must be converted from kilometres and km/sec to metres and metres/sec to get m^2ks units. The equation yields the absolute value of L, using the instantaneous cross products of the body's position and velocity vectors.

Proposed Mechanical Link Via Spin Orbit Coupling
A spin orbit coupling mechanism has been discussed by Wilson et al. (2008) [12] which translates into a varying solar equatorial rotation speed, enabling changes to the solar dynamo and the meridional flows. Solar equatorial rotation rate changes have been recorded by Javaraiah (2003)[3] based on sunspot movement records.
Total Angular Momentum is the combination of orbital AM and spin AM. The laws of AM conservation allow a "trade off" between orbital AM and spin AM. Each body in the solar system has its own orbital AM that can be calculated using the standard formula: If there is a discrepancy between solar orbital AM and planet/body orbital AM the laws of AM conservation would allow changes to a body's spin AM. This could result in a varying solar equatorial rotation rate. 11 To perform this task all the solar system planets and the asteroids Ceres, Juno, Vesta, Pallas, Eugenia, Siwa & Chiron have been included to arrive at a total planet AM. Data coordinates were taken from the JPL DE405 ephemeris.
To compare planet AM with solar AM the inertial frame should be the same. The JPL DE405 heliocentric planetary coordinates are referred to the solar system barycentric inertial frame rather than the heliocentric inertial frame, which required a transformation of our computed planetary angular momenta to the heliocentric inertial frame. The planet AM was calculated using heliocentric coordinates, the Sun was calculated using the SSB as the axis point (barycentric), then the solar AM is subtracted from the planet AM to achieve the same inertial frame.
The following graph displays a divergence between solar and planet orbital AM. A future study will be performed with G.E. Pease further outlining this procedure. Extending this graph back over the whole LIA may prove interesting, possibly showing us another method of identifying solar slow down by studying the planetary AM and its relationship with solar AM. Some big questions remain.

Conclusions and Predictions
The correlation of the inverted AM values with the existing sunspot record, along with the quantification of AMP events provides a platform for future sunspot prediction out to 3000AD. Cycles 24 & 25 are predicted to be less than 50SSN using the Layman's Sunspot Count (based on the SIDC values but ignoring specks rated lower than 23 pixels). Solar cycle 20 was the first stage of the current AMP group which failed to generate a full grand minimum because of the very weak AMP event caused by the late timing of the Uranus/Neptune conjunction and the failed Wilson's Test. The current AMP group does not display a third event which is extremely rare and hence will allow a modest recovery during solar cycle 26. Looking out further, the next 1000 years do not show any major chances for deep grand minima which should provide stable conditions for future generations, not withstanding the possible entry into the next ice age.
Solar cycle 24 will need to reach maximum after March 2011 to comply with the Wilsons Test.
Further information on the Layman's Sunspot Count can be found at: http://www.landscheidt.info/?q=node/50