Techno-Economic and Environmental Analysis of Energy Scenarios in Ghana

The electricity potential in Ghana has become a huge challenge to the nation, which increases the country’s economic growth and reduces Nation’s development. The study highlights the trends on the power grid of the energy potential for the past ten years’ impact regarding the directions on the power grid, and to determine the economic potential viabilities couples with the sustainability of renewable energy sources in Ghana. The study relied on substantial reviewed literature and revealed that Ghana’s energy generation has passed through multiple stages, started from diesel generator supply systems owned by industries and factories to hydroelectricity, thermal power electricity powered by natural gas or crude oil, and solar electricity. The study showed that as of December 2017, Ghana had installed a total capacity of 4398.6 MW comprising Hydro, Thermal, and Solar Plants. Out of the full power, Hydropower generates 1580 MW representing 35.9%, Thermal generates 2796 MW, which also represents 63.6%, while 22.6 MW capacity represents 0.5%. The Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning system (LEAP) tools were employed to consider three different scenarios: energy demand, cost-benefit, and carbon limitation. 2018 was considered as the base year and 2048 as the end year. The results show that 17,800 GWh was estimated as energy demand at base year while 44,000 GWh at end year of 7% annual growth rate. The share of renewable power plants was almost zero at the current account. The share of solar thermal plants may reach 90% due to direct cost and externalities. The study adopted one-hundred-year direct GWP at the point of emissions to compare the Mitigation (MITG) and Reference (REF) scenarios. The model indicated 1.3 Million tons of CO2 saving and 4.0 billion U.S. dollars saving with a 5% discount rate in power generation until 2048, if only the country could afford to develop its generation system with the high deployment of RETs, additional benefits in the form of a sustainable safety environment and less emission carbon would be achieved in the next 30 years. How to cite this paper: Abban, J. and Awopone, A. (2021) Techno-Economic and Environmental Analysis of Energy Scenarios in Ghana. Smart Grid and Renewable Energy, 12, 81-98. https://doi.org/10.4236/sgre.2021.126006 Received: April 9, 2021 Accepted: June 27, 2021 Published: June 30, 2021 Copyright © 2021 by author(s) and Scientific Research Publishing Inc. This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution International License (CC BY 4.0). http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Open Access J. Abban, A. Awopone DOI: 10.4236/sgre.2021.126006 82 Smart Grid and Renewable Energy


Introduction
Energy consumption has one of the most reliable indicators of the development and quality of life reached by a country. The necessity of satisfying forecasted energy demand for a given period is the foundation for energy generation planning [1]. As defined by the World Energy Council, power planning is that part of economics applied to energy problems was taken into consideration the analysis of energy supply and demand, as well as the implementation for ensuring coverage of energy needs in a national or international context (Dictionary 1992). Ghana faces energy challenges as the country struggles to meet reliability requirements. The country's electricity supply section of the country is characterized by power outages that have adverse implications on the quality of life and industrial infrastructure development. Stable energy is vital for the recent development oil and gas industry, which investors the expected oil and gas would be motivated by the economy shortly [2]. According to [3], access to electricity is a critical element in achieving economic development in every nation. Electricity is needed to maintain almost every activity, such as security, stability, production of goods and services, and economic infrastructure development. Developing a realistic generation analysis plan is crucial if the country achieves its medium to long-term development goals. Inappropriate analysis can result in frequent power outages where the generation capacities can only meet about 65% of the current demand [4]. Power generation in Ghana has gone through several phases, starting from diesel generator supply systems owned by industries to the hydro stage following the construction of the Akosombo dam. Thermal powered by natural gas or crude oil, and subsequently to renewable Solar [5].
The electricity crisis has become a challenge in Ghana. This challenge has reduced the country's economic growth and transformation as decline in industrial activity, job and income losses, and interruptions in social life because of this energy crisis are the instances of the right elements of what now seems like a hindrance on Ghana's developmental agenda. Thus, an unreliable and insufficient supply of power becomes even rampant due to the economic costs of inadequate power supply [6].

Brief History of Ghana's Energy Sector
Ghana's motivation to enter massive infrastructure development such as the industrialization of building roads, schools, hospitals, factories, and other equally essential facilities called for a reliable supply of power after the country succeeded in attaining independence. The country's energy sector led the country to rely on mainly diesel generators owned by industrial establishments, including factories and mines, and other institutions such as hospitals and schools in the Gold Coast Era. The supply of electricity in Ghana, according to [2] started back during the colonial era (Gold Coast). The then Gold Coast Railway Administration established the first public electricity generation system in 1914 to supply electricity for the railway sector (ISSER, 2005). In 1947, the Electricity Department within the Ministry of Works and Housing was to take over electricity supplies from the Public Works Department and the Railways Administration. The primary source of the electricity supply system over this period was Diesel Generator Plants. The sector is revolutionizing with the development and completion of the Akosombo Hydroelectric Power Station, which also saw the export of electricity to neighboring countries, including Togo, Burkina Faso, and Benin [2]. The Akosombo Hydroelectric power station through a loan facility obtained from the World Bank and the USA. Volta River Authority (VRA) was subsequently established in 1961 and charged with electricity generation duties via the Volta River's waterpower. The completion of the Akosombo Hydroelectric power in 1965 yielded a total installed capacity of 1038 megawatts (1038 MW) for electricity generation. During this period, the significant electricity consumers were the Volta Aluminum Company (VALCO) and the National Electricity Distribution Company. In 1982, Kpong Hydroelectric Power Station was commissioned, increasing the installed generation capacity by 160 MW, indicating a gradual shift from generator plants to hydroelectricity. Besides, the Bui Hydroelectric power station was a commission to produce 400 MW in 2013. Concurrently, thermal power into the system; in the year 2000, the Takoradi Thermal power station was commissioned with 550 MW, followed by the Tema Thermal station, which produced 236 MW in 2008. In 2010, 200 MW was added after the completion of Son Asogoli power station while Kpone Thermals I & II completed in 2016 and 2017 respectively produced 230 MW and 340 MW as indicated in Table 1 below. All is to boost the energy generation sector for better social life and smooth growth of all the economy segments. The 2016 projections from the Energy Commission indicate a marginal increase in the installed capacity of electricity. The review shows that most power sources will maintain their generating capacity in 2017 (Table 1). Given Ghana's historical dependency on hydro (with relatively unchanged generating capacities) and the grid power consumption, what troubling is the thermal plants and renewable plants (with relatively little addition to the generating capacity in 2017) to operate under capacity?

Energy Scenarios in Ghana
Electricity is the foundation of a functioning society [7], the significant determinants of the economic prosperity of a country. It plays a vital role in undertaking daily activities in the industrial and human life sectors [2]. With a growing population worldwide and increasing living standards, many countries struggle to provide enough electricity needed sustainably. This strain is evident in developing countries, affected by an ever-growing climate instability [8]. Over the past decade, Ghana's energy sector has suffered several power challenges resulting in an extensive economic situation [9]. The World Bank ranked electricity as the second most important constraint to business activities in Ghana. It further estimated that Ghana lost about 1.8% of GDP during the 2007 power crisis [2]. Also, the Institute of Statistical, Social and Economic Research (ISSER) at the University of Ghana in a 2014 report in their study that Ghana, on the average, lost production worth about the US $2.1 million per day (or the US $55.8 million per month) through the power crisis alone [10]. Notwithstanding that, Ghana has made significant strides in electricity access due to long-range energy planning with clear targets, external funding availability, political/popular demand, and the central Government's active role in implementing energy policies. By the close of December 2017, 4398.6 MW capacity had to comprise Hydro, Thermal, and Solar Plants. Out of the total capacity, Hydropower generates 1580 MW representing 35.9%; (thus, Akosombo: 1020 MW, Bui: 400 MW, and Kpone: 160 MW). On the other hand, Thermal power plants generate 2796 MW, represented 63.6%, whiles 22.6 MW capacity representing 0.5% by the Solar plants [4]. These reveal that the installed capacity in operational and available grid power supply at the end of 2017 was about 4398.6 Megawatt (MW). The 2016 projections from the Energy Commission indicate a marginal increase in the installed capacity of electricity. Data provided in Table  2 represent a summarized nation's progress in energy scenarios shortly. The review shows that most power sources maintain their generating capacity in 2017 ( Table 2). Given the historical dependency on Ghana's Hydropower (with relatively unchanged generating capacities) power consumption, there is a relatively significant downwards change in consumption by 8.5% in 2017. However, Thermal, and Renewable plants significantly increased by 22.7% and 36.1%, respectively, in 2017, indicating a gradual shift from hydropower plants. The expansion in both thermal and renewable power indicated above is partly correlated and proportional to the population growth of the country [4]. Smart Grid and Renewable Energy

Economic Potential Viabilities of Energy Scenarios in Ghana
Investing in energy technologies like photovoltaics, hydro, thermal, and many others is capital-intensive in a developing country like Ghana [4]. However, the Government's effort to provide incentives like subsidies and create the economic environment for private sector investment can boost energy generation investment in Ghana. According to [9], it can help curb the recent power outages and load shedding, thereby increasing productivity and economic resilience. According to [11] argued that energy placement's capacity depends on a considerable portion of the initial financial investment prerequisite for power generation infrastructures deployment. The energy placement's economic success is related to its financial viability, which depends on the capacity generating power generating at a competitive cost. The Institute of the Statistical, Social and Economic Research (ISSER) in the year 2014, however, estimated Ghana to losses between $320 million and $924 million per annum in productivity and economic growth, which will affect gross domestic product (GDP) annually due to inadequate and unreliable power supply. (ISSER 2005) Thus, with the economic costs of inadequate power supply, a reliable and adequate supply of power becomes even more pressing. Currently, national energy policy has implemented a brief framework of the Government's policy direction, challenges, and actions, to aid with the operative management and development of the sector and provide the public with information about its policy goals. The policy addresses the low quality and unreliable supply of electricity and the utility company's poor financial performance and helps them raise the finance needed for infrastructure [12]. The solar project's development would be adequate if the internal Rate of Return (IRR) is equivalent to or greater than the required return rate [13].

Methodology
• This part of the study aims to evaluating and projecting the energy scenarios in Ghana from 2018-2048. Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) software was employed to consider three different scenarios: energy demand, cost-benefit, and carbon limitation. Scenarios are self-consistent of how an energy system might evolve over some time [14]. Using LEAP, policy analysts can create and evaluate alternative scenarios by comparing their energy requirements, social costs and benefits, and environmental impacts.
In this study, the year 2018 was considered as the base, thereby projecting it through 2048 as the study pattern years. LEAP system was selected among others because it supports a wide range of different modeling methodologies: thus, on the demand section, these range from bottom-up, end-use accounting techniques to top-down microeconomic modeling. LEAP also includes a range of optional methodologies, including stock-turnover modeling for transport planning areas. On the supply side, LEAP provides a range of accounting, simulation, and methodologies that are powerful enough for modeling electric sector generation and capacity expansion planning [14]. • The Specific Objective was to develop the framework to evaluate the energy potentials in Ghana. These involve applying soft technique methodology guide to evaluate the power potential in Ghana using the Long-range Energy Alternative Plan (LEAP). LEAP is an integrated, planning energy modeling tool that can track energy consumption, production, and resource extraction in all sectors for the economy. The tool that can create models of different energy systems, where each requires its own unique data structures. LEAP is intended as a medium-to long-term modeling tool and is design around the concept of scenario analysis. This approach allows policymakers to assess an individual policy's impact and the interactions that occur when multiple policies and measures as study has been applied widely in many kinds of literature for scenario planning as the best scientific method to acquire knowledge.

Framework and Equations (Figure 1)
Step 1: Ask question: The initial stage begins with ask questions to identify the main topic. This paper's main point was asking of the suitability for good integration of Renewable Energy Technologies (RET) in Ghana.
Step 2: Do background research: This stage was seeking to find out the elements that would be enhance the results of the decision and the social, economic, political, and environmental. Examples of main variables that influenced the generation sector of Ghana include energy security and reliability, types of RET technologies, RET potential, the cost of fuel, technical capacity, and economic and population growth as energy demand.
Step 3: Construct Hypothesis: Involves manipulating of data to identify data to be used, the most important elements from the manipulated variable, e.g., the points causing power Ghana's generation system.
Step 4: Test with experiment: This involves of scenarios to be developed based on the manipulating elements exercise; the scenario was to develop the main point by adding details using the other factors. Involves making use of each main structure or trend of the manipulated elements to end up with policies to enhance the decision-makers.
Step 5: Analysis results draw conclusion: This stage involves the scenario's methodology used in this paper involves the various calculations of growth for future generation development and procedures.
Step 6. Report results The final stage involves writing of your contributions, checking the various errors involving Grammar and plagiarism.

Development of Ghana LEAP Demand Model
The demand model approach in LEAP was adopted for modeling the future energy demand in Ghana. The end-Use provides a detailed modeling account for sectors as well as end-users and energy-consuming devices and appropriate method when assessing the long-term transitions. The main factor for the devel- where S is the current scenario, BL is the baseline scenario, and t is the year.
When cost is specified relative to the Current Accounts intensity D is the energy demand, TA is the total activity, EI is energy intensity, s is the scenario, and t is the year (ranging from the base year to the end year) [14].
where S is the transport fuel demand ty, the stock is the number of fuels existing each year; mileage is the yearly distance duration per plant, PE is fuel consumed per unit of plant duration, t is the plant type, y is the year [15].

Electricity Demand Forecast in Ghana
Electricity   fully capture the energy demand captured by back casting [2]. The electricity demand was calculated by LEAP for all the scenarios in which the technology cost data adopted from. The installed capacity on the current situations from the three plants Hydro, Thermal, and Renewable in the mitigation scenario as represented in Figure 3. The future year investment cost of the conventional energy systems in Ghana (Hydropower, Thermal power, and Solar) was assumed to be constant throughout the study period.  not depend on the operation of the plant, thus, include property tax and insurance, planned and unplanned maintenance, administration, operation staff as well as re-investments within the scheduled lifetime 30 years duration. The actual (O&M) cost estimated by the percentage rates from National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and data for power generation technologies rates, the prices of fossil fuel resources are to predict because of its high price in the world market. However, the benchmark fuel price was considered the most reliable assumptions and adopted from energy commission.

Fuel Prices Used in the Model in Ghana
To model, the feedstock fuel for the thermal plants considered in the Ghana LEAP model, the actual crude oil and natural gas prices were made available for power generation in Ghana for the reference years, from 2018 to 2048. The price was adopted from [16]. Transportation and taxes were estimated using the growth rate of 3% and 35% for crude oil and natural gas to reflect the current price trend. Ghana has no known coal reserves, therefore assume that all coal will be import. The coal price projections on the scenario transportation, taxes, and processing charges were 35%.

Modelling the Energy Scenarios in Ghana
The installed capacity of Ghana in 2018 was 4398 MW consisting of a hydro capacity of 1580 MW, 2760 MW contributed from ten thermal power plants, and renewable of 22.6 MW. To evaluate the energy potentials system in Ghana, the various generating plants were aggregate. The implication is that the recycle plant represented the existing electricity plant, namely hydro, thermal, and renewable plants modeled to representing the Mitigation and Reference systems. The plants' operational characteristics in modeling the generation system from 2018 to 2048 are present in Table 4. The data in Table 5 were from actual plant operational data obtained from the energy outlook by using Ghana from [16].
Most of the thermal plants in Ghana were designed to operate on light crude oil and natural gas. Natural gas is the preferred fuel when available because of its relatively low cost and minimal environmental impact conditions. The feedstock ratio of 35% NG and 57% light crude oil were assumption for 2018 to 2048. The interpolated 90% and 35% for natural gas and light crude oil by respective outputs fuel considered in Table 6. Among the three-fuel construct, NG seems to increase at a relatively realistic interval consistently. The cost of NG compared to crude oil and coal seems a bit higher in the study period. Crude oil was relatively low at US dollars 86.6, NG US dollars 106.6, and Coal US dollars 96.8, yet the cost difference between coal and crude oil remains US dollars10.2 while the NG   and crude oil were US dollars 20. However, the price difference between coal and the NG was US dollars 9.8, indicating a relatively lower comparatively. The onus lies on the management to make a clear decision about the choice to make.

Results and Discussions
The outlook of energy balance for Ghana under the various policies presented in Figure 4 observed that the installed capacity needs to be increased to at least 3200 MW to meet the actual demand and specified reserved margin. Also, installed capacities of Mitigation Scenarios (MITG) will be required for the Mitigation scenarios. Due to limited capacity in the renewable section, the scenario considered in (MITG) capacity in RET scenarios confirmed that higher Ref RET needs to be able to match the same demand as that of the thermal plants. The MITIG RET deployment is meant to ensure a high diversity of generation mix with a reduction of the thermal plant share of generation.

Cost Analysis
The results of the scenarios expressed in the 2018 US dollars rate presented in Table 5, investment cost includes both fixed O&M and variable O&M. The generation of power from plant fuel leads to the emission of Greenhouse gases (GHG) influence society. The cost of these negative values, therefore, needs to be considered when assessing generation technologies. Currently, Ghana does not have a carbon tax in place; however, the study assumes a $15 /ton carbon tax in 2018 is up to 2048. Revenue from the sale of electricity was captured in this analysis presented in Table 6. It observed from Table 7 that, the Outputs by feed stock fuel installed capacity needs to be increased to at least 3200 MW to meet the actual demand and specified reserved margin while outlook of energy balance for Ghana under the various policies presented in Table 8. The electricity demand is estimating to all the scenarios modeled to meet this demand well cost-benefit summary in Table 9 expresses only the avoided transformation costs. These results may not indicate the exact cost values for the scenarios; however, they provide a useful benchmark for comparing their economic performance. This is observed from Table 6 that the capital and operational and maintenance O&M costs of the alternate MITIG scenario are higher than the Ref scenario. At the reference discount rate (5%), an extra $607 and $1278 Billion in capital investment will be required to implement the MITIG scenario and Ref RET scenarios over the 30-year study plan duration. These results were not surprising considering the higher investment cost of technologies considered in the alternative scenarios.
However, it observed that the total Net Present Value (NPV) of the Ref RET scenarios were lower than the MITIG scenario. This simulation shows the savings in the fuel cost that occur in the two RET scenarios. These results show that Ghana's current generation system plan Ghana (Mitigation scenario) is obviously given when consideration is given to only investment cost. The actual availability of fuel cost by the alternative scenarios over the study period of 2018 to 2048 increasingly makes the higher integration of RET into the generation plan a viable alternative. The trend in cumulated discounted cost/benefits of the scenarios over the study period is illustrated in Table 9. The results in Table 9 shows that economic benefits due to savings in fuel cost could be achieved within the long term with MITIG's introduction of renewables. However, the Ref RET scenario will begin to yield economic benefits beyond 2048. RET can be deployed into the Ghana generation mix on their merit when consideration is given to their long-term benefits base on the assumptions and constraints used in developing the scenarios. Table 4 further compares the NPV of the alternative scenarios under discount rates of 5% and 10%. The observation of the trend in   NPV seems to suggest that the choice of discount rate does not significantly affect the choice of the alternative scenario compared to the base case as a similar trend was observed. However, an analysis in terms of the cumulative NPV compared to the MITIG RET clearly shows the lower discount rate, the higher the present value of the future cash flows. It is observed from Table 4 that the lower discount rate of the RET scenarios is dominated by high capital-intensive technologies. A key priority should be geared towards the provision of guarantee long-term finance to promote the high integration of RET. The cost of fossil fuel was considered the most critical parameter that influences the cost of generating thermal plants, while that of RET is mostly dependent on investment cost. These two parameters also have high variability in the price: while the cost of RET, es-pecially wind and solar, has seen a downward trend in capital cost that of the fossil fuel price is generally unstable. To this end, sensitivities on the capital cost of RET and the cost of fossil fuel were undertaken to determine the effect of variation of these parameters on the scenario's economic performance.

Environmental Evaluation
The total amounted of Greenhouse Gas emissions (GHG) by each scenario is estimated and presented in  Table 10. The environmental effect of the introduction of coal on the environment is eventually the higher emission of the coal scenario compared to the cleaner natural gas generation.
The only difference between the MITIG and Ref RET scenarios is the endogenous references of the benefits at 5%, 10%, and 15% discount rates and carbon emission, the shear of the thermal power plants will be reduced in 2048, while the total cost of REF would be in the new MIGIT coal plants resulted in a cumulative non compare emission of about 40.1 million metric tons CO 2 equivalent without the compares. Although GHG savings are higher in the Ref RET than in the MITIG results in base net higher benefits at 5%, 10%, and 15% discount rates, that the cost of avoided CO 2 does not apply to the coal scenario since it resulted in higher emission compared to the MITIG RET. The results show that Ghana could secure funding through the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) under the Kyoto protocol if the country makes maximum use of its abundant renewable energy potential. The annual fossil-fuel CO 2 emissions uncertainty estimates from 1950-2013 provided in this database derives from time series of global, regional, and the national fossil-fuel CO 2 emission This gridded uncertainty includes uncertainties contributions from the spatial, temporal, proxy, and magnitude components used to create the magnitude map of FFCO2 emissions. Throughout this process, when assumptions were judgment to employed, the general tendency in most cases was toward increasing the magnitude of uncertainty. Carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) is the mostly common greenhouse gas produced by anthropogenic activities, accounting for about 60% of the increase in radiative forcing since pre-industrial times [13]. By the largest source of CO 2 emissions is from the oxidation of carbon when fossil fuels are burned, which accounts for 70% to 90% of total anthropogenic CO 2 emissions. When fuel burned, most carbon is emitted as CO 2 immediately during the combustion process. Some carbon released as carbon monoxide, methane, or non-methane hydrocarbons, which oxidized to CO 2 in atmosphere within a period from few days to 10 -11 years [17]. Although the GHG, coal ash, which is a solid waste produced after combustion, the adoption of the coal scenario will therefore be at the expense of the environment. The country needs to consider the introduction of emission standards with the liberalization of the energy sector to encourage independent power producers to not only invest in renewable power but to continue to explore more efficient thermal generation such as Reference RET plants. Table 7  Environmental results in LEAP are also optimizing in terms of the cost of avoided 144.4 million CO 2 emission. The cost of CO 2 avoided is the cost of reducing CO 2 emission to the atmosphere expressed as $/ton of CO 2 not emitted concerning the base case scenario. The decision criterion is to identify the least-cost alternative in reducing a ton of CO 2 .

Conclusion and Recommendations
 This paper seeks to analyze the techno-economic and environmental conditions of the energy situation in Ghana. This study explored several policy options to meet Ghana's demand for electricity requirements based on available energy resources and technologies as the study revealed that Ghana stands the great potential to expand its electric power source to Renewable Energy Technologies (RET). This study would ensure an efficient and sustainable supply of electricity in Ghana to meet energy requirements soon, thereby eradicating power outages in the country gradually.  This study suggests that if the country could afford to develop its generation system with the high deployment of RET, additional benefits in the form of carbon trading could be achieved.  These findings conclude that if the country could afford to develop its generation system with the high deployment of RET, additional benefits in the form of carbon trading under the Kyoto could be achieved; this will have significant implications for further development of renewables with the availability of funds which is the immediate implementation of these technologies to eradicate the electricity phenomenon in Ghana.