Research on the Influence of Population Structure on Economic Growth: Based on the Provincial Panel Data Model

In recent years, the international environment and conditions of China’s economic development have undergone profound and complex changes, but in the middle and long term, China’s economy has been maintaining a stable medium-high speed development. It is remarkable that population changes bring about changes in economic development; especially the aging of the population has a particularly significant impact on economic growth. Therefore, based on the inter-provincial panel data of 31 provinces and municipalities from 2011 to 2019, this paper mainly studies the impact of population change on economic growth by establishing a solid fixed effect model. The results show that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between population structure and economic growth, and population structure has a significant positive impact on economic development. In addition, there are regional differences in the positive and significant relationship between the two.

Journal of Applied Mathematics and Physics lation aging are detrimental to economic growth. Di Re A Ha [2] (2020) from the perspective of demography and family planning, China's political and economic system reform, elaborated the adverse effects of population aging on economic development and effective solutions. Research shows that population aging as one of the main factors affecting the process of socialist modernization construction, has a direct impact on economic development. Therefore, the relationship between the two should be comprehensively controlled, and the disadvantages should be turned into advantages to promote economic development.
Chen Jiamin [3] (2020) analyzed the two-way adverse effects between population aging and economic growth in Guangdong Province based on the VECM model.
He finds that population ageing depresses economic growth in the short run, but boosts it in the long run. Guo Han, Ren Baoping [4] (2014) studied demographic dividend and its change and the transformation of economic development mode through empirical analysis from the perspective of economics. The results show that the demographic dividend change has an impact on economic development through four dimensions: capital formation, labor supply, human capital accumulation and labor allocation efficiency. This paper uses Stata15 software [5] and Eviews10 software [6] to study the panel data of 31 provinces and autonomous regions, so as to get the influence degree of population change on economic growth.

Theoretical Basis
The general form of panel data entity fixed model is as follows: The null hypothesis of the model is that under the null hypothesis, we can get the following this formula: where, RRSS is the sum of regression residuals in the mixed model, and URSS is the sum of regression squares in the solid fixed effect model. N is the number of cross-sections, K is the number of explanatory variables, and T is the number of time points.

Data Selection and Explanation
In this paper, elderly population dependency ratio and regional per capita GDP were selected as explanatory variables and explained variables, expressed by EDR and GDP respectively. Economic growth can be measured in terms of gross domestic product (GDP) and gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. Here we use GDP per capita. Before the establishment of the model, the natural logarithm transformation of each data can not only eliminate heteroscedasticity but also

Unit Root Test
Panel unit root test has its own methods. In this paper, LLC、IPS、ADF and PP-fisher are used to analyze the stability of the data to ensure the stability of the data and avoid the occurrence of false regression or false regression. The output results are show in Table 2. Table 2 shows that the two sequences after first-order difference reject the null hypothesis at the 5% level, so the data series is stable.

Co-Integration Test
I(1) sequence of ΔInGDP and ΔInQ Complete the conditions of the Co-integration integration test, the following the two sequences with co-integration analysis, the results are shown in Table 3. It is not difficult to see from

Likelihood Ratio Test
The null hypothesis of Likelihood Ratio (LR) test is that the model selection of fixed effect is redundant. As cab be seen from the test results in Table 4, at the 5% confidence level, the value of F statistic is 0, and the value of LR statistic also 0, which indicates that the model rejects the null hypothesis and further indicates   that the model is appropriate to select the fixed-effect model.  Table 5.

Conclusions and Suggestions
This paper uses stationary test, co-integration test and fixed effect regression estimation of panel data to study the impact of population change on economic growth. It's found that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the  2) Formulate scientific industrial adjustment policies to cater to the change of population structure. According to the population characteristics of our country, the government should formulate some targeted industrial adjustment strategies, so as to promote economic development.
3) Increase investment in human resources to provide a human base for high-quality economic development.

4)
In view of the regional differences in the impact of population structure on economic growth, some regions can appropriately delay retirement.

Funding
This work is supported by the National Science Foundation of China (No.

Conflicts of Interest
The authors declare no conflicts of interest regarding the publication of this paper.