Modern calculation tools and efficiency of insurance management in the global pandemic period

Object: The main purpose of the research is to develop modern tools for the insurance management in the global economic crisis, to make an objective assessment based on a critical analysis of existing ones, to identify situations that could lead to international economic, social and natural threats. It is made some recommendations for the development of insurance calculations for the republic of Uzbekistan. Methods: Methods for reforming modern calculation of insurance tariffication are recommended by means of theories of probabilities, statistical and mathematical analysis, and foreign advanced countries practical types of summarizing. Findings: While making an analysis, it has found that modern tools for the insurance management of Uzbekistan are needed. We proved this by the results of modern calculation of insurance in tables (1-6). For the development of insurance market of Uzbekistan, it should be analyzed by means of penetration and density of insurance premiums, making the deepest calculation of risks of the economy of Uzbekistan, and using the main principals and formulas of theory of probability. Conclusions: In the end, we can take some results, and give some recommendations such as using the tools of theories of probabilities can help us find the main risks of economy, it’s powers of influences of the market economy, statistical and mathematical analysis also add some practical, objective results for making under control of any types of insurance risks.


Diagram 1. The volume of insurance premiums
accrued in the country (mln UZS) 6) Financial crises in the regional economy and its impact on the world economy; 7) The risk of delay or loss of international investors and their expected return on investment activities.
To be able to identify and prevent other similar negative developments in the infrastructure of a market economy, to accurately assess the level of mobilization of insurance activities to reduce the expected losses, to develop a clear strategy to overcome the global economic crisis with minimal losses and implement it promptly, the development and offering of touch insurance products for the affected sectors arising from the global economic-financial and socio-political situations listed above is one of the current issues. Based on this, we will identify the real situations for the above and assess the need for effective participation of insurance activities in it one by one.

SWOT-analysis, mathematical expectation, and normal distribution of losses, which help to determine the place of insurance activity in the world economy.
Like other markets, the insurance market differs from one another in both developed and developing countries. Here, the density of insurance and the share of insurance in the economy are different, and the density of insurance is the degree of insurance, defined as the ratio of total insurance premiums for a year per capita in the selected country in monetary terms or percentages. The share of insurance in the economy is calculated as the ratio of the total calculated insurance premiums to the gross domestic product for a year in the selected country.
In a market economy, the demand for insurance depends on the size of the property of consumers and their income. For example, in developed countries, a certain consumer, on the one hand, feels the need to ensure his assets to protect against future market economy risks, and on the other hand, to further increase the income from their activities, can ensure the health of loved ones. According to economists, insurance companies believe that it will increase the country's productive capacity, as well as make a significant contribution to improving the living conditions of society and increasing the level of welfare.
This means that as consumers' wealth and income increase, so do their insurance needs. This will ensure that various enterprises and organizations, business entities, businessmen, foreign firms, and companies in the country will be able to carry out their economic and financial activities independently and without risks.  Among the Central Asian countries, the Republic of Uzbekistan also has insurance companies, which are one of the most important participants in the market economy. As of December 31, 2019, there are a total of 30 insurance companies, 24 of which are engaged in general insurance and 6 in life insurance.
At the end of 2019, the insurance market of the country increased by 5.3 times compared to 2014 and amounted to 2,313.9 billion sums ($ 243 bln).
The following diagram shows the dynamic change in insurance premiums calculated in the country since 2014.
The main reason for the rapid change in insurance premiums, especially after 2017, can be explained by the increase in the number of insurance companies, the creation of conditions in the insurance market by the government, the formation of new types of insurance, increasing consumer interest in insurance products.

Nevertheless, there is work to be done in the field, and the following results can be obtained when assessing the insurance activity in the country based on new calculation standards above:
From our example, it can be seen that the density of total insurance premiums calculated by In this regard, one of the most important issues is to assess the contribution of insurance activity to the economy, which is reflected in the insurance market of Uzbekistan as follows: The results of the study show that the insurance market of the Republic of Uzbekistan is not fully developed, and it is necessary to take large-scale measures to increase the volume of insurance. This is     While this analysis is examined among developed countries on a selective basis, the ratio of insurance in the economy, or the selected country's GDP, averaged around $ 3,402.95 in 2014, around $ 3,333.58 in 2018, as well as selected countries' annuals. The density of total insurance premiums calculated during the period also averaged 7%, respectively.
It was found that the selected countries have a direct correlation between the calculated insurance premium density for the respective years and its share in GDP, averaging 70% to 78%. Hence, we can scientifically conclude that the higher the density of the calculated insurance premiums, the higher its share in the economy. The following is an overview of insurance activity in these selected countries (table 6).
Reforms in the field of insurance in Uzbekistan are reflected in the laws, decisions and decrees adopted by our government to offer insurance products that can meet the requirements of their scale and time, to provide maximum protection of insurers from financial risks. This can be seen in the following documents:  Civil Code of the Republic of Uzbekistan (Chapter 52 "Insurance");

Results
There are many insurance organizations, companies such as Uzagrosugurta JSC, Uzbekinvest NEIIC, Alfa Invest LLC, which are leaders in the insurance market of the Republic of Uzbekistan, were selected to analyze the insurance portfolio, to assess the relevance of the above-mentioned calculation tools for new calculations, and the following results were determined. The company is one of the leading insurance companies in the country, operating in the insurance market of Uzbekistan with its insurance products. To date, the company's insurance portfolio specializes in general and compulsory types of insurance.
In the process of traditional analysis, the Company's insurance products were based on quantitative and performed to reduce it are described in detail in the section on insurance products.
Regions play a key role in the company's insurance portfolio, accounting for 76% of total insurance premiums calculated during the year. (Diagram 3). Among the regions, the Tashkent region (8%), the Namangan region (8%), and the Bukhara region (9%) were the leaders. The remaining regions also had a share of at least 3% to more than 6% in the insurance portfolio.
The level of loss of total insurance premiums in the insurance portfolio of the company is also reflected in the regions by 49% in Syrdarya region, 58% in Surkhandarya region, 47% in Jizzakh region, 25% in Namangan region, 24% in Tashkent region and 21% in Karakalpakstan 21%, these regions are distinguished by the fact that insurance premiums have the highest loss rates in the analyzed year. In the rest of the regions, respectively, the loss rates of insurance premiums ranged from a minimum of 9% to a  We know that the share of insurance agents and employees in the accumulation of insurance premiums in insurance companies is high.
Because the bulk of insurance contracts are searched by these entities for insurance objects and contracts are concluded. Appropriate measures have been taken to encourage and support insurance agents in the Company which can be concluded from the position of the Company in the state unit.
The share of compulsory insurance in the company's insurance portfolio should be recognized by insurance and others. The distribution of total insurance premiums and accrued insurance liabilities for these types of insurance is clearly shown in the diagram below.
The leading type of insurance premiums calculated by types of compulsory insurance is settled by type of compulsory insurance was high, which was 59% in the Samarkand region, 52% in the Andijan region, and 46% in the Tashkent region.
When analyzing insurance claims received by company data, the main focus was on the level of satisfaction of claims. As can be seen from the diagrams below, almost all of the total number of claims received have been satisfied. Surkhandarya region accounted for the largest share of insurance claims, which amounted to 11.71%, and Navoi region -5.29%. In the remaining areas, almost all insurance claims were satisfied. The process of dealing with insurance claims in the insurance business is also the most important, but also a responsible process, which has a great impact on the insurer's ability to justify the trust of future customers, to conclude more insurance contracts. Because one of the main criteria in the insurance business is customer trust. In this regard, the Company has carried out significant reforms and measures.
Example 2. The role of probability theory in the calculation of insurance tariff coefficients, in assessing the level of risk of insurance objects is unique. Below we consider the question of how to assess the object of insurance, its level of damage, and tariff coefficients based on the principals of probability theory. It will be find by following example.
The insured value of the facility is 20 000 000 units, the probability of damage from storms within a year is estimated at 3%, the probability of damage from floods is 2%, and the probability of damage from fire is estimated at 1%. Assuming that all the listed events occur independently of each other, it is necessary to determine the following:

1) Find the risky part of the insurance premium calculated for the object in case of occurrence of at least one of the three events listed; 2) Find out the risk insurance premium of the object when it is insured on one sheet of all listed risks.
Probability theory as we know it is one of the natural sciences based on calculating the probability of occurrence or non-occurrence of events and happenings in real life and theoretically evaluating probability cases.
In this example, we can identify the events of damage to the facility from future storms, floods, and fires with conditional symbols such as B 1 , B 2 , B 3 , respectively. And we denote by A 1 the probability that at least one of these events will occur and by A 2 the probability that all three events will occur at once.
According to probability theory, the probability that at least one of the unrelated events will occur is equal to the product of the probabilities that these events will occur. That is: Based on this formula, we calculate the loss rates of insurance liabilities over the years. We can simplify this system of differential equations in the following view: In the general case, when all the statistics are known, the system of equations for several n years will have the following appearance: We will now calculate the above problem based on this formula: We now calculate the risk premium of the direct insurance premium based on the following formula: Т р =β(y, n)* Here β(y, n) -is the value between the security guarantee indicator and the years, expressing the level of confidence of the insurance company to cover the insured events that the insurance premium collected with probability y = 0.9, and the degree of dependence of the events when y = 0.9 and n = 5 for the selected issue b (y, n) are selected from the If the insurance premium is loaded at 30%, the insurance premium rate coefficient will be as follows:

IJCRT2011318
International Journal of Creative Research Thoughts (IJCRT) www.ijcrt.org 2748 Example 4. The insured the object with a value of 450 000 units based on the distribution of 100 000, 200 000, and 300 000 units of currency in the insurance companies S 1 , S 2 , S 3 , respectively. As a result of the insured event, the whole insured object was destroyed. It is necessary to determine the amount of insurance indemnity to be paid by each insurance company.
Initially, the total insurance liabilities of each S 1 , S 2 , S 3 insurance company are determined: S = 100 000 + 200 000 + 300 000 = 600 000 is means that the object is insured for a total of 600 000 units, which is 150 000 units more than the actual value of the object. With this in mind, it will be necessary to determine the insurance liability of each insurance company.
From here, So, it can be concluded from this issue that in exchange for the insurer insuring an object worth 450 000 units in companies S 1 , S 2 , S 3 , the object was damaged as a result of the insured event, but in fact, only 150 000 units were damaged. The amount of this loss was taken into account in S 1 , S 2 , S 3 insurance companies as income in S 1 = 25,000, S 2 = 50,000, S 3 = 75,000, respectively.

Discussions
According to the results of the analysis of the use of modern computing tools in insurance practice, the following evaluation criteria are currently relevant for the insurance market of Uzbekistan.

1.
It is necessary as a tool to determine penetration of insurance premiums in Uzbekistan over the years, the level of coverage in the economy, based on the criteria of the share of insurance premiums in the economy or the share of insurance premiums in GDP. Because despite the fact that the annual growth rate is 600-700 billion soums, in fact, its density tends to increase by only 0.25-0.45%.

2.
The density of accrued insurance premiums is also an up-to-date modern means of calculation, which reflects the share of per capita expenditures for insurance during the year. In our example, the fact that the change in this indicator over the selected years is around 2-3 dollars means that measures need to be taken in this area. Because the figure is more than $ 120 in developing countries.
3. Probability theory is characterized by the fact that it makes sure that the expected economic events have a detrimental or beneficial outcome for its participants, and encourages them to take measures such as timely prevention or adequate preparedness for possible economic threats. Creating an economic model of economic events based on the principles of probability theory alone serves to simultaneously positively address the issues of its optimization, maximization and minimization. The issues of transportation, matrixing style, cost minimization and revenue maximization are well known and popular in practice.

4.
The fact that the world economy is not moving smoothly, economic events are changing very rapidly in interconnected and unrelated ways to determine the mathematical expectation of future economic and financial events, evaluate it, develop its necessary criteria, determine the expected insurance rates for future years. I believe that the calculation will help the insurer to reduce the level of future losses of the insurance portfolio.

Conclusions
Thus, it is clear from the examples considered that the following accounting systems are offered during the leadership of the insurance market and in the event of a global pandemic: -It is recommended the calculation of density of insurance premium among the indicators required for management staff and its wide implementation in practice; -To determine the share of insurance premiums calculated in the insurance market in the economy of the selected country, and the plans to be adopted, to take this into account in the projects; -It is actual and purposeful in-depth analysis of the density of insurance premiums of regional division of the Republic of Uzbekistan while formation of the insurance portfolio; -It is real problem of assessment of the main types of insurance and its real situation, taking full advantage of the existing opportunities of the theory of probabilities, and based on the reformation of insurance tariff coefficients, continuous risk assessment; -It is recommended to determine the predictions of insurance premiums which is calculated and accumulated for future activities based on the laws of the regression equation and probability theory; -I think it is necessary to pay special attention to the reformation of tariffs, conducting insurance analysis that is not harmful to both parties.