Assessment of Policy-Research Interaction on Climate Change Adaptation Action: Inundation by Sea Level Rise in the Nile Delta

Availability of reliable knowledge on future climate change impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation are considered key elements to improving adaptive capacities and developing proper adaptation actions. The Nile Delta vulnerability to Sea Level Rise (SLR) has been the subject of a relatively significant number of studies in Egypt. The research question that this paper intends to address is “to what extent have the produced scientific knowledge supported climate change adaptation policy making, concerning inundation by SLR in the Nile Delta”. To address this question, the paper begins with a review of the literature on policy-research interaction, based on which a framework of policy-research interactions is developed. This is followed by examining generated knowledge from research and the role of such knowledge on adaptation strategy development in Egypt. It was found that the research cycle has provided ample knowledge on the Nile Delta vulnerability to inundation by SLR. Additionally, the bulk of this research work and produced knowledge have been the main source of information for climate change adaptation policymaking. The interaction between research and policymaking interest in the climate change adaptation arena in Egypt confronted several challenges that may have reduced impacts of research on policymaking. These challenges included low interest in the far future, uncertain sea level rise impacts among policymakers and the uncoordinated research and varied estimates of sea level rise impacts provided by the research cycle. Moreover, the lack of proper and effective communication channels between the two cycles may have further hindered possible interaction.


Introduction
As most climate change impacts are being inevitable, adaptation is becoming a prominent component of climate change policies for any country vulnerable to climate change impacts, especially developing ones (Ford et al., 2010). Most of these countries are typically experiencing substantial competition on their limited financial and human resources to meet immediate needs of increasing population and development (Füssel, 2007). This has promoted calls for linking climate change adaptation and sustainable development in general (Eriksen et al., 2011) andSDGs, in particular (IFRC, 2009). Such calls, along with the climate change impacts uncertainties, emphasized the need for the identification of low-regret options 1 , to enable taking climate action with the limited resources and uncertainties of the magnitude and spatial extent of climate change impacts.
For this to be achieved, policies and actions need to be supported by sound scientific knowledge on climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation measures, typically produced by academia and climate practitioners. Such knowledge should be accessible to policymakers through interactive communication network or framework linking both research and policymaking cycles (Ford et al., 2010;Füssel, 2007). Timely availability of such knowledge can have wide policy implications in terms of allowing for improving adaptive capacities and developing proper adaptation strategies (Muccione et al., 2016). However, lack thereof of such knowledge may create serious constraints on institutional and individual adaptive capabilities and perceptions of climate change risks and their impacts as well as benefits and/or costs associated with different adaptation options (IPCC, 2014).
The Nile Delta plays a crucial role in the Egyptian economy, as it is the source of about 40%, 50%, and 60% of its agriculture production, fish catch and industrial production, respectively (Abdrabo & Hassaan, 2015). Moreover, it hosts several human settlements accommodating about 39.9 million inhabitants The Nile Delta coastal area, as most river deltas, is low-lying land with a general elevation ranging between zero and 1 m above mean sea level and considerable parts below sea level (Frihy, 2003). Such a topography means that low-lying coastal areas would be highly sensitive to any trivial rise in sea level. Such sensitivity is compounded by annual subsidence of the northern parts of the Nile Delta, ranging from west to east between 0.5 and 4.5 mm/year (Stanley & Warne, 1993;Stanley, 1997).
It is generally agreed that deltas are climate change hotspots that are particularly vulnerable to Sea Level Rise (SLR) impacts. The Nile Delta vulnerability to SLR has, in this respect, been since the 1990s the most frequently researched 1 Low regret options refer to "low cost" options that perform reduce vulnerability to existing and future hazards and perform well across a range of climate change scenarios and thus can be implemented regardless of climate change uncertainty (Green et al., 2019). Journal of Geoscience and Environment Protection  (Hassaan & Abdrabo, 2013). climate change topic by Egyptian researchers (EL Raey et al., 1995;El Raey, 1997;El Raey et al., 1999;Frihy, 2003;Dawod & Mohamed, 2008;El-Nahry & Doluschitz, 2010;Frihy et al., 2010;Hereher, 2010;El Shinawy et al., 2012;Ismail et al., 2012;Haggag et al., 2013;Hassaan, 2013;Hassaan & Abdrabo, 2013;Zaid et al., 2014;Hasan et al., 2015;Refaat & Eldeberky, 2016) All these studies came to the same conclusion that the Nile Delta is physically vulnerable to SLR inundation, with significant yet unassessed socioeconomic impacts. It is worth noting that such research work and produced knowledge on the extent of inundation of the Nile Delta due to SLR has been the only source of information for climate change adaptation policymaking. Additionally, it was found that the authors' team involved in the development of adaptation strategy had only one specialist on SLR issues who authored a number of papers being covered in our research paper (IDSC, 2011b). Additionally, the adaptation strategy development process had no to very limited consultation with different stakeholders.
As the quality of adaptation planning depends, to great extent, on the robustness and reliability of scientific knowledge produced by researchers in the Nile Delta case, the paper in hand, accordingly, intends to address the question of "to what extent have the produced scientific knowledge supported climate change adaptation policy making, concerning inundation by SLR in the Nile Delta".
It is worth mentioning that despite the wide-ranging results of previous research work on spatial extent and magnitude of areas vulnerable to inundation by SLR in the case of the Nile Delta, no research was undertaken to examine the impact of the generated knowledge on climate change adaptation policymaking.
To address the above-mentioned research question, the paper begins with a 2 It was suggested that about 23% of research work was conducted on SLR inundation Nile Delta during the period 2007-2017 (Hassaan, 2018). Journal of Geoscience and Environment Protection methods section establishing the conceptual research-policy interface framework that can be utilized in this study. This is followed by the results section, which examines different research work conducted on SLR inundation of the Nile Delta coastal area, their results and how they relate to the adaptation policymaking to SLR inundation projections. Thereafter, the discussion section examines the extent to which such scientific knowledge has supported adaptation policymaking. Finally, the conclusion section highlights the main findings of the study and its main recommendations.

Methods: Policy-Research Interaction
To address the research question posed in this paper, the literature on research-based scientific knowledge-policymaking interaction is examined, highlighting the driving factors influencing such interaction. It should be noted that research-policy interaction has been a topic of great interest for both policy and academic researchers. It is typically argued that policy and research making each has its cycle of action (Lewin, 1946) 3 ; with the former cycle consisting of five main phases; starting with problem/issue recognition, problem/issue analysis and identification and assessment of possible actions, which contributes to agenda and priority setting. This is followed by implementation step then by monitoring and evaluation, which in turn provides feedback to the problem/issue recognition step (Stone et al., 2001). The research cycle, meanwhile, involves six phases including characterization of issues/problems deemed worth researching, reviewing associated literature and contextual factors followed by data collection and analysis, advising on possible evidence-based actions, and then evaluation and feedback ( Figure 2). The policy and research action cycles are cyclical processes consisting of a set of normally followed procedures, with the research cycle term coined firstly by (Lewin, 1946) in the context of social planning. Journal of Geoscience and Environment Protection It is worth noting that the above-mentioned phases may differ according to approaches adopted and are not essentially linearly built as they may overlap and their order vary (Drummond & Themessel-Huber, 2007;Coghlan & Brannick, 2005). Additionally, each of these two cycles has its dynamics, negotiation processes, and timing and each has its prized output. For example, researchers most of the time prioritize research publication above advising policymaking.
Policymakers, meanwhile, are more interested in practical solutions that are more publicly accepted with different stakeholder groups, even with weaker scientific evidence.
Furthermore, interaction between the two cycles may be initiated by players in any of the two cycles and at different phases. For instance, a question or an issue may be posed by a policymaking player for the research cycle to address and provide answers. Similarly, a player in the research cycle may raise an issue resulting from research with the policy cycle. Yet, it should be noted that the links between research and policy are neither linear nor guaranteed (Ahmed, 2005).
Also, these cycles, their mechanisms, and the whole interaction presented here are, in reality, running at different levels and directions at the same time (Stone et al., 2001).
Such interaction, it can be argued, is usually influenced by several aspects including; for instance, the validity of research, the existence and effectiveness of communication, a supply of policy relevant-research, awareness from both sides, and access to research. This means that policymakers can face difficulties with solutions to problems that may involve limited evidence or excess and sometimes inconsistent information (Perri, 2002), thus limiting the contribution of scientific knowledge into the development of sound policies. Furthermore, it is worth mentioning that the issue is not only about the utilization of research results into policymaking but also about knowledge management and policymakers' ability to assess research results (Matson & Watts, 2003).
Moreover, the nature of climate change, being one of the most paramount challenges in the 21 st century with cross-cutting impacts on almost all sectors that are long term and uncertain, may itself contribute to enhancing or damaging the research-policy interaction. These attributes may typically reduce urgency for action by policymakers already having difficulties dealing with current basic needs and problems. This is particularly evident in developing countries 4 , where greater preference is given to the present and/or the evident future issues over uncertainties surrounding time and magnitude of climate change impacts (Wang et al., 2016;Cohen et al., 2016). The influence of these attributes could be expected to be particularly greater in developing countries that are confronting gradual climate change impacts that may become evident in the far future.
Such a context emphasizes the need for a more flexible and sound deci-4 Time preference is one of the most fundamental concepts in economics, which is about inter-temporal choices and has been widely applied in different fields including for instance, asset pricing, project evaluation, and decisions on investment and saving, among many others (Wang et al., 2016). Journal of Geoscience and Environment Protection sion-making process (Atela et al., 2016), which requires climate change research to provide accurate, clear, focused and sound scientific knowledge to support all stakeholders. Additionally, such knowledge should be perceived by all stakeholders, including decisionmakers, as not only apolitical and unbiased but also as reliable as possible (Scheraga et al., 2003).
Accordingly, the research based scientific knowledge-policy interaction in the case of SLR in the Nile Delta is assessed in terms of several factors that may influence potential utilization of scientific knowledge by policymakers. These factors may include SLR projections consistency, empirical aspects involved (e.g. data sources), approaches adopted by the research, magnitude of potential socioeconomic impacts as well as viability of proposed response actions; i.e. adaptation measures.
In order to assess the impact of research on policymaking in the case of vulnerability of the Nile Delta to inundation by SLR using the framework suggested in this paper, meant looking into the research and policymaking cycles as well as the interaction between the two cycles.

Results
It should be noted that there were no clear criteria for identifying the priorities of the research agenda, accordingly the research cycle focused mainly on some topics that were repeatedly studied. This was the case of physical impacts of SLR   (Rodriguez et al., 2006;Valeriano & Rossetti, 2012;Zandbergen, 2008). Using data with such a margin of error to assess the impacts of a couple of meters of SLR projections would surely reduce the reliability of estimates of the vulnerable areas to SLR reported. It was noted, also, that the higher the SLR scenario employed, the lower the variations in estimates (Figure 3), which, it could be argued, can be due to these SLR scenarios cancelling out minor local topographical differences of the Nile Delta. It should also be argued that the Nile Delta vulnerability to SLR research requires consistent, rigorous and transparent methodologies, with clearly expressed underlying assumptions. However, it was found that the methodologies and datasets used in some other research work were vague, for instance, Eldeberky (2011) articulated neither the source of the elevation information nor the assessment methodology employed in the paper (Eldeberky, 2011).
It could be suggested that an additional challenge to effective climate change policies in Egypt was that the research overemphasized the physical impacts while ignoring the socioeconomic impacts. It is worth mentioning that vulnerability of the Nile Delta to inundation by SLR was made more ambiguous by inexplicable estimates of socioeconomic impacts of inundation by SLR reported in couple of studies. In one case, aggregate socioeconomic impacts estimates were presented without stating or discussing the estimation process or underlying assumptions employed. For instance, it was suggested that: "Analysis of the results indicates that for SLR of 0.5 m if no action is taken, an area of about 30% of the city will be lost due to inundation. Over 1.5 million people will have to be moved away 195,000 jobs will be lost and an economic loss of land and properties of over $30 billion are expected over the next century" (El Raey, 1997: p. 31). In another study, generally ungrounded unit cost estimates were employed to calculate the aggregate cost figure as it was stated that "the estimates used for an area of 1 km 2 are about US$100 million for beach and agricultural areas and US$500 million for industrial areas. It is estimated that the economic loss (in the case of Port Said) is over US$ 2.0 billion for a 0.5 m SLR and may exceed US$4.4 billion for a 1.0 m SLR." (El Raey et al., 1999: p. 119).
It should be noted that the research cycle, focusing mainly on the risk of inundation of the Nile Delta coastal area, overlooked other climate change impacts that were not considered in the adaptation debates. For example, it was argued that very little efforts to quantify accurately future impacts of climate change and vulnerabilities at different sectors e.g. fisheries, northern lakes, tourism, biodiversity, health, livestock and food security were undertaken (ARCA, 2017).
As for the policy cycle, the National Committee of Climate Change was established as an inter-ministerial body in 2007 to coordinate climate change policies (Gazette, 2007). This committee was reformulated in 2015 (Official Gazette, 2015) and  (Elsehamy, 2016).
This, it could be argued, means that climate change adaptation policymaking in Egypt lacks good governance in terms of accountability and responsivity.
Due to the lack of serious efforts and official documentations that deal with climate change adaptation in an integrated manner in Egypt, except for NAS, it is used in this work as the main official output reflecting policymaking aspects related to climate change impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation in Egypt.

Discussion
It can be argued, in this respect, that the research cycle, in the case of the Nile Delta vulnerability to SLR, has provided fair stream of knowledge for policymakers. Yet, such knowledge provided contradicting estimates of the extent of areas vulnerable to inundation, thus generating conflicting and confusing messages to policymakers as well as other stakeholder groups. The research cycle, furthermore, provided inexplicable aggregate estimates on socioeconomic impacts, which in turn heightened the confusion. For example, it was suggested that without defenses, about one-quarter of Alexandria city would be susceptible to inundation by 2010 (El Raey, 1997), which did not materialized. Additionally, most of these studies have focused on the year 2100 as the timeframe for such inundation, with no discussion of the gradual nature of the impact, making it a far future impact. Though this could be attributed to the difficulty surrounding short and decadal projections compared to long-term ones, it limited its importance to policymakers and almost all other stakeholders.
Additionally, the extensive areas suggested to be susceptible to inundation by SLR in the Nile Delta led to the recommendation of hard-structures and expensive adaptation measures as indispensable to adaptation action. This was reiterated in almost all research as well as official documents dealing with SLR impacts. For instance, adaptation options including engineering structures such as groins, breakwaters, and other hard structures as well as reviewing policies of land use planning were proposed as key adaptation measures (EEAA, 1999;El Raey et al., 1999;El-Nahry & Doluschitz, 2010;Batisha, 2012;Frihy & El-Sayed, 2013). Others suggested reinforcing existing engineering structures (Elshinnawy, 2008;Michel & Pandya, 2010), and/or relocation of buildings, roads and other infrastructures landward (Eldeberky, 2011).
It is worth noting that some of these proposed adaptation measures may involve in addition to the massive investments significant adverse environmental and socioeconomic impacts. For instance, building a dike of 20-meter-wide and 4-meter height has been proposed to be built around Lake Borollus and a 3 meters high dike was proposed as possible adaptation measure to protect Lake Manzalla from SLR impacts. Nevertheless, it was suggested by the same report 6 The National Environmental Action Plan of Egypt 2002Egypt -2017Egypt , developed in 2001 to climate change as one of the environmental issues of concern for Egypt, particularly the Nile Delta Overall, it can be argued that the limited policy response could be attributed to some factors: The first is the lack of awareness about climate change impacts and vulnerability in Egypt among different stakeholder groups including policymakers, dealing with was considered a priority. Thus, awareness raising, it was argued, should not only convey knowledge to these different groups but also attempt to lead to change in attitude (Hassaan & Abdrabo, 2014

Conclusion
It can be argued, generally, that the research cycle, in the case of the Nile Delta vulnerability and adaptation to SLR, has provided, though diverse and sometimes contradicting, a stream of information for policymakers on the extent of areas vulnerable to inundation by SLR.
Climate change adaptation policymaking in Egypt echoed the findings of the research work, with limited focus on action. This was found to be the case with the National Climate Change Strategy, which was also found to be impact-and/or sector-specific, paying no attention to non-climate factors and with no integration into development planning in general. This was compounded by overlooking the extent of socioeconomic impacts and various stakeholders' views and concerns in this respect.
Generally, it could be argued that the interaction between research and policymaking cycles led to limited policy development and implementation in Egypt due to several challenges. These challenges were manifested in the policymaking cycle, on one hand, in the low interest in the far future, uncertain impacts of climate change in general and SLR, in particular. The challenge in the research cycle involved the uncoordinated research and wide range of inexplicable estimates of the magnitude of inundation by SLR, on the other. The consequences of these challenges were amplified by the lack of proper and effective communication channels between the two cycles.
The multidisciplinary nature of climate change studies should be promoted to provide a clearer and holistic view of SLR impacts, vulnerability and adaptation planning. There is also a need to consider, among other things, contextual factors; including socioeconomic, and land use dynamics that need to be integrated into research as well as all institutional work related to climate change. This accompanied by raising awareness among all stakeholders particularly policymakers, represents the main pillars of realm of climate change research and policymaking.
It is worth noting that assessment of vulnerability to SLR should not be the goal of such work but identifying potential low-regret adaptation options and assessing measures for improving climate resilience. This can be addressed through some synergy with sustainable development efforts in general and the achievement of SDGs. 2) Development plans of coastal areas should make provisions for inundation to SLR hotspots to reduce potential future damages and need for costly adaptation measures.
3) Climate change impacts are cross-cutting and expected to be temporally and spatially spread, emphasizing the need for integrating climate change actions into development planning, particularly with the substantial overlap between climate resilience and SDGs.