Application of Improved Analysis of Variance to Ionospheric TEC Short-Term Forecast

Yan Gong, Yamin Dang

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DOI: 10.4236/pos.2011.21005                

Abstract

An improved superposition analysis of periodical wave variance is used for short-term forecast of the ionosphere TEC in this study. Using the ionospheric TEC data provided by IGS as the real value, the forecasting precision of this me-thod at different locations in China with 40 days data is evaluated. The result shows that the improved method has a better forecasting precision which could reach 1.1 TECU. But the forecasting precision still relates to geographical position, it is proportional to longitude and inversely proportional to latitude. Compared with the current-used methods, the improved method has many advantages as higher precision, using fewer parameters and easier to calculate. So, it applied to ionosphere short-term prediction in China very well.

Keywords

Ionosphere, TEC, Short-Term Forecast, Variance Analysis, Cycle Superposition

Conflicts of Interest

The authors declare no conflicts of interest.

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