L. Tang et al.
ernment attaches great importance to building energy conservation , and correspo nd ing ly introduces a number of
laws and regulations, standards, policies, measures and economic incentives. Building energy consumption con-
tributes to the future development of the scenario analysis to explore and determine future energy strategy.
3.1. The Scenarios Setting
Building energy consumption is decided by total building area and quantity of energy consumption per unit area.
Therefore, the main factors that cause building energy consumption changing can be summarized as follows:
1) Changes in the total area building
In addition to the increase in population, the growth of per capita living area also contributed to the g ro w th of
total construction area. From 2000 to 2009, total construction area increased 31.29% in Guangzhou City, urban
public building area increased 24.51%, urban residential construction area increased 20.32%, rural residential
land area increased 51.55%. Living space per capita has also increased, urban per capita average annual growth
rate of residential area is 2.72% from 2005 to 2009; 2009 reached 21.01 square meters; average annual growth
rate of rural residents per capita residential area is 3.31%, and it reached 40.59 square meters in 2009, public
buildings per capita has also increased. The housing area per capita and per capita area of public buildings are at
a high level in Guangzhou City, and maintain steady growth. Setting the following two scenarios for the future
development trend of per capita area of structure, one is sustainable developing at the current level, the other is
strongly controlled by the tax system and the per capita housing area and per capita area of growth in public
buildings.
2) Changes in lifestyle
More and more people gradually change the traditional way of building energy consumption, resulting energy
consumption raised. Another aspect, the expansion of the concept of lifestyle and consumption has also led to
the increase of proportion of new public buildings which are high energy consumption. Setting changes in life-
style in whole society in scenario analysis, the system of residential and public buildings in the quantification of
different groups in the proportion of changes in energy intensity, that is part of the former are “low energy”
group of residential and public buildings change lives way for “high energy” group, and "low energy" groups to
“medium energy” conversion.
3) The improvement of technical level
Building energy consumption intensity is decided by the number of construction services and building energy
efficiency. The level of technology is mainly reflected in: reduce air conditioning load through the building
envelope by different local conditions; reduce energy consumption intensity through using efficient ener-
gy-saving lamps, air conditioning and electrical equipment. As is investigated the building energy consumption
per unit area in 2015 is 1.1 times in 2009, 2020 is 1.3 times for 2009, 2030 is 1.5 times for 2009; when the skill
levels of electrical equipment technology greatly increase, the growth of energy-using equipment in building
will be offset, energy consumption per unit area remained basically unchanged by 2030.
Based on the above assumptions of three main factors, we analyze the building energy consumption in 2015,
2020, 2030 by four steps. First, in accordance with current trends of the development of building energy con-
sumption, three factors are all non-energy savings, gaining the scenarios of non-energy savings (baseline scena-
rio); Second, considering energy-saving scenarios of three factors affecting independently; then considering
energy-saving scenarios of two of the three factors interact; eventually considering all three aspects of building
energy conservation play a great role, that is the most energy-saving scenarios.
3.2. Model Checking
From the model, the demand of total building energy consumption in 2009 is 14.414 million tons of standard
coal, it is in accordance with the total 14,091,500 tons of standard coal in statistical data and the error does not
exceed 2.2%. The calculation value of residential build ing s power consumption is 6.955 billion kw.h in 2009,
urban residential electricity consumption in 2009 is 7.399 billion kw.h; rural residential building energy con-
sumption calculation value is 3.71 billion kw.h, rural residential electricity consumption in 2009 is 3.715 billion
kw.h; the calculation value of public buildings power consumption is 11.907 billion kw.h, the value is 11.985
billion kw.h in Statistics, the error of calculation is in the acceptable range. It can be considered that the setting
of basic parameters of the model is reasonable, it is credible that the composition and demand of future energy
consumption which using the model to calculate.